Rookie of the Year Thoughts and Future Talent of the NBA

Congratulations to Rookie of the Year winner Damian Lillard, who surprised most NBA analysts last year, by trumping Anthony Davis’ proficient, yet shortened season. Lillard has created an admirable and flashy image for himself through highlight reel 3 pointers and acrobatic layups. Lillard isn’t quite as good as the Sportscenter top 10 suggests and still has plenty to work on defensively, but there’s no arguing he was a crucial element to the initial success of the Trail Blazers and his award is well deserved. Here’s a brief overview of some of the future talent of the NBA. 

Damian Lillard

Lillard is first to be discussed; he won the Rookie of the Year award unanimously in the voting, and he almost carried his team to a playoff spot save the very end of the season. He has terrific quickness and surprisingly good court vision for a rookie with a quality assist rate and 6.5 assists/game. In addition, Lillard shot very well from the perimeter despite the deeper NBA three point line, shooting 37.2% from deep on a very generous 6.2 attempts per game.

This is terrific for him going forward; Lillard projects to have tremendous offensive skill if he can continue to improve year by year. He possesses outstanding quickness and utilizes this on pick and rolls and is surprisingly effective in isolations.  Lillard projects to be a terrific pick and roll guard; he can shoot over the top at a decent clip, as well as find the open man when the defense closes up.

However, I expect Lillard to be good, not great. He isn’t big at all, and while he will most likely put on some size between now and year 3 or 4, I don’t think he’ll ever be able to truly match up with bigger guards such as John Wall, Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose when bodied up on the block. The size impediment will affect him on the offensive end as well; Lillard finished well below average at the rim this year, and unless he adds some much needed strength, that won’t change, as he is not a spectacular athlete.

Moreover, the most concerning component of Lillard’s game is his miserable defense. Lillard was continually bullied by larger guards in isolation plays, and simply doesn’t possess the strength to match up with bigger guards. He was even lousier defending pick and rolls, regularly playing out of position and making rotation errors as well as exuding fluctuating effort.

This will all certainly improve, as it does for most rookies, and Lillard is already sitting pretty with a skilled offensive arsenal and a low turnover rate that will only get better. It will be interesting to monitor his progress and examine how he compares to the abundance of exceptional NBA point guards.

Anthony Davis

Hello future superstar. Davis doesn’t have nearly as sexy of a game as Lillard does which may contribute to his lack of first place votes, but he certainly possesses more potential, and should continue to develop into one of the best bigs in the NBA. Some statistics (i.e. field goal %, assists, fouls) for most rookies can be deceiving as they will usually improve year by year for the first few years, however, looking at Davis it is clear that he possesses the physical tools to make an impact on both ends for the years to come. Davis has soft hands, long arms, and a terrific leaping ability to contest shots and finish at the rim. He scored 56% of the time as a roll man on the pick and roll, using his terrific hands to gather the ball in the lane and finish 71% of his shots at the rim.

Defensively, Davis is suspect right now because of his current build; however, once he learns proper rotations on defense and adds some lower body strength he should be very effective defending post ups and pick and rolls. He has a maddening habit of leaving his feet on pump fakes by mediocre jump shooters, but learning NBA defense takes years to learn, especially for bigs, and Davis has all the tools to be an elite stopper.

Bradley Beal

Beal opened his rookie campaign with a very underwhelming performance, shooting under 40% for the first 3 months of the season. He caught fire late however, and settled out his overall field goal percentage to 41%. Beal settled for too many long jumpers, a common blunder for many NBA rookies still gathering the concept of floor spacing in the league, which weighted down his overall FG%.

As expected, he caught fire right around the time John Wall returned from injury, and his ability to space the floor for Wall to work is vital for the Wizards offense going forward. Beal shot a respectable 38% from 3 on a good number of attempts, and if he can provide decent perimeter defense for Washington he will fit into Randy Wittman’s system nicely.

Beal’s offense came mainly through spot-ups and off screens, but true three-and-D type players aren’t as common as it may seem in the NBA, and if Beal can serve as a floor spacer, wing defender, and bench unit facilitator he will be an important piece for Washington moving forward.

Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond deserves to receive a small amount of praise here; despite missing 32 games due to a stress fracture and a sprained ankle. He performed spectacularly well in the limited minutes he actually saw the court, dominating the boards on both sides of the ball.

Drummond played very average defense by Detroit’s standards, and one can only wonder if his rebounding, shooting, and defensive numbers would have sustained themselves in a larger amount of minutes. Unfortunately, Lawrence Frank (coaching alert!) limited Drummond’s minutes to 20 per night despite performing much better with him on the court on both sides of the ball.

Drummond looks to be developing into a very good center moving forward, and should develop into a superstar center provided his health doesn’t hinder his ability to perform.