Do the Pacers actually have a chance to beat Miami?

The 2013 Eastern Conference Finals features two teams with completely different backgrounds. The much-publicized Miami Heat will make their third consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearance, after reeling off 8 wins in 9 playoff games with minimal competition sans a couple games against Chicago. On the other hand, the superstar-less Pacers have simply chugged along all season, taking care of business in their first two rounds and now sit in a decent position to knock off the defending champions and make their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000.

However, amid the unskillful and under-analyzed debates as to whether Indiana actually does have a chance against Miami (ESPN First Take anyone?), the question actually presents itself as an intriguing possibility that the Pacers do, in fact, match up favorably to beat Miami. However if that were to take place, Indiana is going to need terrific play from its post players, a handicapped version of Dwyane Wade, and spectacular ball security on offense.

Get the Ball in the Post

It’s more than clear to see that the match up of Indiana’s starting five to Miami’s starting five would, on paper at least, seem to favor an Indiana team which is outscoring opponents in the playoffs by a whopping 16.4 points per 100 possessions. A Miami starting lineup of Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh would be a tad undersized in the post against two proficient post players in Roy Hibbert and David West. However, to take advantage of that, Indiana has to get the ball inside. This means simply feeding West and Hibbert repetitively to continuously wear down the Miami post. Yes, they will miss a few shots, but Indiana has a clear advantage here, and Frank Vogel has the opportunity to be tremendously creative in his offense by running the offense through West in the High post, or having Hibbert stake out his real estate on the left block. This one-two punch is invaluable to Indiana’s chances of success in this series, and Indiana simply has to get the ball in the post and let their bigs go to work.

Indiana has performed very well against their opponents when West and Hibbert have shared the floor in the playoffs per NBA.com; scoring 106.3 points per 100 possessions, a number that would rank 7^th in the league in the regular season, and much higher than the Pacers overall regular season total. Both players are so versatile; West can create from the elbow off the dribble, from a jumpshot, or finding the open man on a cut as shown here:

And don’t even think about fronting him without help on the weak side, as he’ll brutalize any opponent attempting to challenge him below the rim as he does here:

Hibbert is also an excellent playmaker, and has developed much-needed strength and touch around the rim, as he attacks Tyson Chandler here (notice the left hand):

The Indiana big men are going to have to get their touches for the Pacers to have a chance against Miami; this will wear down the Miami front line, force the Heat perimeter defenders to help in the post, and allow these skilled passers to find the open man along the perimeter for a clean three-point look. The main concern of mine involves Indiana’s abundance of live-ball turnovers, which goes hand-in-hand with the next piece of their game plan on which their success will hinge.

Eliminating Live Ball Turnovers

Perhaps even more concerning than Indiana’s semi-reluctance to consistently attack the post (their offense should be built around the post in my opinion, a la Memphis) is their overwhelming abundance of live-ball turnovers. The Pacers offense turns the ball over constantly, and in no specific or consistent manner either. The Indiana regular season offense would have been much more effective if they didn’t have the 2^nd highest turnover ratio (turnovers per 100 possessions) in the league. Even more discouraging is their turnover ratio in the playoffs: 17.3, a number that would place last in the league by a very large margin in the regular season.

As I stated above, the most frustrating theme of these turnovers is the lack of consistency. Dropped balls, tipped passes, and careless dribbling from nearly every player have all contributed to the Pacers’ NBA highest playoff turnover rate. Indiana simply HAS to clean this up to have a chance in this series; Miami leads the league in points scored per possession in transition, and any live-ball turnover directly translates to transition baskets for Miami. Lance Stephenson and Paul George actually match up decently in transition defense against dominant Miami finishers in LeBron and Wade, but no team has the stamina to keep up in transition if they turn the ball over 18 times a game.

This seems mainly like an issue of discipline; Vogel has to ensure that his players are taking care of the ball on every single possession. So many of Indiana’s turnovers offensively have resulted from bobbled balls, careless dribbling, or miscommunication on passes. Yes the New York defense is known for gambling, and plenty of Indiana’s turnovers have come from aggressive gambles on New York’s part, but live ball turnovers will kill the Pacers in this series, and they have to squeeze the orange on offense.

Miscellaneous Breaks

Every team has to have luck to win almost any series in the playoffs, at least a little bit, and Indiana will need more than a little bit to knock off Miami in this one. Their best shot at good luck concerns the Dwyane Wade “injury”; the extremity of Wade’s injury is uncertain, however it’s relatively clear that Wade hasn’t been playing at 100% for the past few games. His knee is certainly a concern, and in a recent article Wade was described as having been dealing with a knee injury since March,, missing games five separate times because of it. Wade has played only 33 minutes per game in this year’s playoffs, compared to his average from previous years around 40. This is a little bit misconstrued because of his bench time in 4^th quarter blowouts early in the playoffs, but if Wade spends substantially fewer minutes on the floor, the Heat are at that much more of a disadvantage offensively and defensively.

Another small matchup detail to watch involves Roy Hibbert Defensively on Chris Bosh. Miami will most likely pull Bosh further away from the basket, in order to draw Hibbert out of the lane so as to attack the paint and prevent Indiana from over-helping.  Indiana might switch to some type of match up zone defensively to counterattack; Hibbert anchors that league-leading Indiana defense, but to have him defending on the perimeter almost nullifies his defensive advantages.

Lastly, Indiana has to survive with its bench units on the floor. Indiana’s bench is spectacularly bad again, and their offense completely collapses when Tyler Hansbrough, Sam Young, and Ian Mahinmi are on the floor, and the Pacers will need big minutes from their starters to survive, especially considering LeBron can play all 48 minutes if he absolutely needs to.

It should come as no surprise that the Heat are good, very good. Their defense is spectacular, they force turnovers, get easy baskets, spread out the defense, and attack the lane. The Pacers will need nearly flawless play from their starting five to have a shot in this series, and absolutely have to eliminate careless turnovers to avoid a beating. Indiana is a very good team, but Miami is just too good in my opinion; I don’t see Indiana holding onto the ball well enough in this series to secure a victory: I’ll take Miami in 6 games.