Friday Playoff Primer

The first few games of the first round of the NBA playoffs started off predictable and rather unentertaining, with 6 of the 8 total series’ starting with a team compiling a 3-0 or 3-1 lead. It had initially appeared that basketball fanatics would have to wait until the future rounds for truly competitive basketball.

The tide has turned however, after two commanding first round sweeps by the Spurs and Heat, 4 playoff hopefuls now have their backs against the wall in game 6, with the most series going 6 games since 2003 had 7. After last night’s near epic comeback in Oakland, and an exciting finish in Chicago, we now turn our attention toward 4 juicy game 6 matchups on Friday night. Here is what each desperate team needs to fix to force a game 7 and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Boston Celtics

After three straight relative blowouts, Boston has crept back into this series with a smothering defense and an offense barely keeping their head above the water, entrusting entirely too much on the aged Celtic talent to grind out points in half court situations. The Celtics are a very conservative, defensive minded team, and will employ this attitude on both sides of the ball, even if it seems like it may not be the best approach. Boston has stymied the Knicks’ unimaginative and one dimensional offense in both wins and losses, holding them to 96.3 points per 100 possessions, a number that would even trump Indiana for the league’s most proficient defense. Brandon Bass has done a surprisingly terrific job guarding Carmelo Anthony, and Doc Rivers has quickly taken of Anthony’s reluctance to pass by overloading the strong side of the floor when he has the ball as shown here.

Notice how 4 Boston defenders man the paint here, despite 2 very proficient 3 point shooters stand outside the arc.

Because of this wise defensive tactic, Anthony is shooting under 40% for the series, and unless New York can mix up the offense and identify more scoring options, this will continue to be a poor offensive team performance.

The issues for Boston, however, are not defensively, but offensively. The Celtics lack the offensive talent to consistently get into the paint to create offense; Jeff Green is really the only consistent penetrator, and even Mike Woodson is starting to recognize this by directing his drives to the left. Boston’s offense is suffering from a severe lack of versatility; despite getting shots from different players, the Celtics are living and dying by the mid range jumper, absolutely not a recipe for success, and are last out of all 16 playoff teams in shots attempted in the restricted area.

This is going to create a heavy burden for Pierce and Garnett; the two future hall-of-famers are already logging over 80 minutes per game combined in their two wins, and this certainly has to be taking a toll on the Celtics performance.  To win this series, Boston must continue to suffocate the New York offense and ride on the shoulders of these future hall-of-famers to create shots and orchestrate the defense.

Atlanta Hawks

In what may be the most enigmatic series of the entire first round, the home team has won every game thus far, and the Hawks look to protect their home court against Indiana tonight. If Indiana could simply play their starting 5 for a whole 48 minutes, this series may be over in 4 games; the Pacers starting five has been lighting up Atlanta for the series, outscoring them by 22.3 points per 100 possessions. However, this is not possible; Roy Hibbert can barely make it up and down the floor without taking a breather, and David West isn’t as young as he once was. The Pacers defense is sitting well below it’s league leading regular season mark, albeit still very good, however their offense has been making/breaking this team’s ability to function.

Credit is due, however, to Larry Drew; after being lit up nearly singlehandedly by Paul George in games 1 and 2, Drew went with a bigger starting lineup, moving Kyle Korver to the bench and assigning Josh Smith to guard George. This yielded terrific results, after scoring 50 points in the first two games, George shot under 40% for games 3 and 4.

This will have to continue for the Hawks to have a shot in game 6, along with better shot selection from Josh Smith (no, really), and a better performance from Jeff Teague who has played very average this series. 

Houston Rockets

The Rockets join the likes of Boston among teams attempting to make history; it’s not likely for either two teams to pull off the 0-3 comeback, but probably more-so for Houston given their offensive proficiency and Oklahoma City’s overall defensive atrociousness. The Rockets small ball lineups have roasted OKC as of late, and confused OKC in transition defense through the use of strategic matchups.

However it would be a stretch for Houston to keep up this hot shooting , even by their standards, especially considering the probable upcoming defensive adjustments to be implemented by Scott Brooks.

This Houston team is no joke though; they have an abundance of deep shooters, and can basically pinpoint the worst OKC defender to attack (usually Kevin Martin or Derek Fisher), and attack him off the dribble forcing the defense to collapse and opening up perimeter shots for the offense. Patrick Beverly, Aaron Brooks, Chandler Parsons, and James Harden are all three-point threats who can also attack off the dribble, and it remains to be seen how OKC will counter this offensive threat.

The Thunder have had a multitude of defensive mishaps in this series: failing to match up in transition, miscommunication in the pick and roll and dribble handoff, and help defense that fails to rotate. This should clean up for game 6, but the Thunder have a lot of work to do in future rounds if they expect to be a true competitor. And if it doesn’t clean up, Houston has a good chance to win this series.

Los Angeles Clippers

In what may be the most exciting series in all of the playoffs, the Clippers are surprisingly the ones with their backs to the wall in game 6. NBA media had expected this to be the series that goes full 7 games as it did last year, however, a Blake Griffin that is not a true 100% will be very concerning for LA going forward. The Clippers will have to go on the road to win this one in Memphis and if they don’t find an answer to the Grizzlies frontcourt attack, this game might not even be close.

For some obscure reason, Vinny Del Negro hasn’t made the conclusion that double teaming either of Memphis’ starting bigs is anything but optional given their LA's frontcourt deficiencies; Gasol and Randolph have lit up the Clippers while sharing the floor, outscoring LA by 13.5 points per 100 possessions. A healthy Blake is key for LA, not only offensively but defensively as well. Griffin actually matches up decently well with Randolph on the block, especially by LA’s standards, and his passing is a key element to the Clippers half court offense. LA has also been flammable defensively this series, which is surprising to say the least  considering the slow paced and tightly packed Memphis offense they’re facing.

Winning without a healthy Blake looks like a long shot for the Clippers now, even with Chris Paul, and Vinny Del Negro will have to scramble for an acceptable 5 man lineup to compete with Memphis in game 6.