What if Derrick Rose does come back?

It has been one of the main storylines through NBA media this entire year. When will Derrick Rose come back, how good will he be when he comes back, and if he is cleared to play, why hasn’t he come back yet? Rose has been participating in 5-on-5 workouts and practices since the All-Star break, and has been cleared to play for quite some time, so now the only question is not whether he’s ready physically, but if he’s ready mentally.

We have now come upon game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and the Bulls are actually in a somewhat favorable position to knock off the defending champions after stealing game 1 in Miami. The odds are still slim for Chicago, yet rumors around the league claim that Derrick Rose may suit up in game 3, presenting a very compelling predicament for Tom Thibodeau. This idea is still very uncertain, and because Rose has been cleared to play for about two months it makes it even harder to predict his added value to Chicago... But I’ll try to anyway.

In the 2011 playoffs, Rose registered an offensive rating of 103.0 compared to a defensive rating of 98.0 (points per 100 possessions while he was on the floor). This is terrific, however during the 2011-2012 regular season his net rating was even more outstanding with an offensive rating of 107.6 and a defensive rating of 97.0. These numbers would have ranked 2^nd and 4^th in the league respectively, so his added value to the team is overwhelmingly clear.

However, statistics are somewhat expendable in this situation given the circumstances. Intangibles are much more important; predicting a player’s production when coming back from injury can not be simply referenced from previous statistics due to the uncertainty of their current physical condition. It’s always unclear how long a player will take to regain full strength after a career threatening injury like this one. Most players need time to A) re-adjust to the speed of the NBA game and B) work back into their correct lineup spot after getting back in prime physical shape.

However, Rose’s comeback situation is particularly unique, simply because he is allegedly already in prime physical shape. Doctors have cleared him to play long enough by now to assume that if he has truly been participating in full contact drills for an extended period of time, he should have no unusual limits as to what type of contact and movement he could subject his knee. Rose is clearly a player whose success is dependent on the health and ability of his body. If he is not fully capable of utilizing all of his athletic ability, then it really is a risk to expect a strong performance from him.

The lineup changes are what to watch for if Rose comes back, as it is more than likely that he would take the starting role from Nate Robinson. Nate is accustomed to coming off the bench to stimulate the offense, and if the Bulls can be graced with even more good health, a Rose-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah starting lineup is very promising defensively and offensively. Chicago has simply been sapped of good heath as of late, but having players such as Robinson, Belinelli, Heinrich, Mohammed, and Gibson coming off the bench would be very helpful when trying to knock off this Miami team if they can somehow get so lucky.

Robinson is the only player in the starting five who has been consistently helpful offensively during the postseason, but his defense is so flammable it would be much more suitable to have him coming off the bench to face Miami bench units. If Rose were to come back it would seem he would be able to take the offensive load from Nate, while at the same time providing better defense. Noah, Deng, and Butler are all terrific two-way players, and if the Bulls can somehow find some way to get all of these guys healthy they should be in good shape. I don’t expect any significant chemistry issues with this team, as Rose has been traveling with this team nearly all season and has played with roughly the same unit for 5 years. However, what will be interesting to see is how the offense changes with Rose in the system. It would be expected that he would accumulate a very high usage rate, so most likely Tom Thibodeau would revert (at least a little) to last year’s offense.

Chicago is capable of defending Miami very well, at least compared to the rest of the league (last night was an outlier), and if Rose can come back in full strength and lead the team, this series becomes much more intriguing. It’s not likely that Chicago could beat the Heat, but I wouldn’t put it past Tom Thibodeau, and even if they can’t it would be nice to see a team expose Miami’s limitations. The verdict is basically this: Rose adds value no matter what if he comes back given he is in condition to play, however how much value he adds is questionable and is subject to whether he will instantaneously assimilate into the Chicago offense on the run.

Also: side-note. I’m not one to dismantle Rose for making the decision to sit all season; yes, some players are quicker at returning from injuries, but this really is a career-threatening injury, and if he’s not mentally ready to come back I can’t blame him. I would love to see him play sooner than later, but he’s making a living through a career that could make it difficult for him to even walk in 30 years. So give the guy a break, and let him make his own decisions. I’m sure that when he comes back it will have been worth the wait.