What's Going on in Denver?

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What’s going on in Denver?

After Andre Miller’s buzzer beater in game 1 last week, it seemed like all the momentum had been sapped from Golden State. David Lee had gone down for the remainder of the playoffs, the Denver defense had frozen the high powered Golden State offense, and the Pepsi Center crowd continued to will it’s team to victory, just as it had done in the regular season cheering the Nuggets to a 38-3 home record.

However, the Warriors came roaring back to snag the biggest road win at the Pepsi Center all year in game 2, shooting a whopping 65% from the field (!) and scorching the Nuggets from long range at 56% (!!!). This would have been impressive enough for one game, but when Golden State kept up this hot shooting for the next 2 games, it became clear that something was going wrong with Denver.

But what is it? Denver is playing the exact game they’ve been playing all year, an up-tempo high-powered offense that includes forcing an abundant number of turnovers and scraping together some easy fast break points. The offense is still productive; even in the three losses the Nuggets are scoring 105.5 points per 100 possessions, a number that would rank an admirable ninth in the league.

However, the problem is on the defensive side of the ball; Curry and Klay Thompson are obviously two of the best shooters in the league, and while a hot shooting streak doesn’t usually last this long, it’s no surprise it has with these two, especially Curry. He’s shot a whopping 45% from deep this year on an even more astonishing 7 attempts per game. Running him and Klay Thompson through screens is giving the Denver defense fits, and the new David Lee-less small-ball starting lineup is scoring 119.4 points per 100 possessions in this series, a number that would lead the league by a large margin.

One of the main problems a defense faces is the Bogut-Curry high pick and roll. As you can see in this next clip, Denver is forced to contain Curry at the top of the key to deter a jumpshot, allowing Bogut to punish the defense with his terrific passing after slipping through the screen.

This has been the case for Curry running the pick and roll with either Bogut or Landry. The Denver big is forced to maintain a hard hedge to deter Curry from shooting over the top, and when this defensive strategy is employed, it keeps the defense on its toes allowing him to slither into the paint or slip a pass to the big for a quick shot.

It may be questioned, however, what would happen when the shots stop falling? In a more hostile environment such as the Pepsi Center, it is much less likely for players such as Curry and Thompson to retain a shooting streak for an extended period of time. Yes, they are great shooters, but even the best shooters in the game can’t always keep it going, and when the offense breaks down it will be interesting to see from which sets the Warriors run their plays. Carl Landry is obviously their number one option if this happens, and there’s really no specific matchup Golden State for has for him on the block. Mark Jackson has also done a terrific Job of mixing up sets for Golden State to keep Denver guessing, and the creativity exposed through the use of an assortment of Warriors running the offense has been very effective.

Basically Golden State has just given the Nuggets a taste of their own medicine, and this is why it’s such a frustrating match up for Denver. Denver has out-paced nearly every team this season, and won by simply out hustling their opponents. However, the Warriors appear to be their kryptonite; Golden State has no dilemma playing at Denver’s pace, especially at home, where the energy of the crowd seemingly directly translates into transition threes.

Denver’s only hope is really just to go back home and attempt to out-run Golden State. The Nuggets are down 1-3 in the series, although it’s not entirely impossible for a comeback at this stage. The Nuggets offense is particularly effective in their native environment, and Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala are perfectly capable of penetrating the lane and getting to the rim.

Lost in all of the excitement of this series is the absence of Danilo Gallinari. Denver’s half court offense is screaming for an alternate offensive option, specifically a stable three-point sniper. Lawson and Iguodala are average long-range shooters at best, and Corey Brewer is overlooked by Golden State in the corners on offense. Not only would Gallinari spread the floor for the other Denver scorers to work, but he would create such a mismatch for the current Golden State lineup that it adjusting it would be inevitable.

However, Gallinari’s loss forces George Karl to go small as to contain the Warrior’s three guard lineup. Golden State can grind through extended minutes with Harrison Barnes acting as a small-ball 4, however, a healthy Gallinari at the 3 for Denver would all but eliminate this ultra-effective Warrior 3 guard lineup.

With their backs against the wall, Denver simply needs to continue to execute what has won them games all season: trapping opponents and forcing turnovers, scurrying up and down the floor to attack transition defenses, crashing the offensive glass, and they must do everything they can to keep the ball out of Curry and Thompson's hands.

Oh, and most importantly: keep their fingers crossed that those hot shooters cool off.