Breakout players
One of my favorite things to do before the season starts is
predict who will have a breakout year. It’s always fun to see guys like Paul
George and James Harden really excel after a few years of growing pains in the
league. There are a lot of guys I expect to have big years this year, not
necessarily because of consistent development (although that is certainly part
of it), but because of a larger allocation of minutes stemming from a trade of
another player at that position or simply because more playing time is in just
in the order.
Eric Bledsoe – I expect Bledsoe to put up double-digit point
totals and good assist numbers this season as his role is extended from a bench
guard in L.A. to a starting shooting guard in Phoenix. Bledsoe has the
versatility to play both guard positions, and given the lack of depth behind
him and Goran Dragic, I expect his mpg numbers to hover in the mid 30s
throughout the year. He has a solid health history since being in the league
and 3 years of experience, 2 of which
are behind the best point guard in the league, and Phoenix should be willing to
let him play as much as possible in what is otherwise a lost season. There may
be some growing pains at first, but I expect Bledsoe to translate as an
effective guard going forward.
Enes Kanter – Kanter sat on the bench for what was a near
perfect adjustment period for an NBA center (3 years), and is now awarded the
starting role in his 4th year. Kanter has backed up perhaps the most
offensively proficient center in the league in Al Jefferson during his time in
the NBA, and should now receive about twice the minutes he had been receiving
before. Kanter is a terrific rebounder, particularly offensively, and shot very
well around the rim and from the field in general. Kanter also posted the best
defensive rating on the team last season, and how the Kanter-Favors frontline
develops for Utah will be the most interesting development for this team going
forward. I expect Kanter to have a good season.
Derrick Favors – Similar to Kanter, Favors was also a 3rd
overall selection and should also have a
breakout year. This is obvious; the Favors-Millsap-Jefferson frontcourt logjam
in Utah hindered his development a tad, but now that Millsap is gone Favors can
have full responsibility of the starting power forward. He’s already a terrific
rebounder, good defender, and spectacular finisher around the rim, so a little
bit of offensive polish is needed to make the next jump in performance. Even if
he never becomes completely polished offensively, the jump in minutes alone
should solidify him as a crucial piece going forward for the Jazz. His name was
a pretty obvious selection for this list and he is my bet for most improved
player.
Larry Sanders – Sanders is already one of the best centers
in the league in terms of defending and rebounding combined, and I expect his
minutes to take a decent leap this season. Sanders looks like a perennial
defensive player of the year candidate going forward in my eyes, especially
since he stays pretty healthy overall. Sanders had the highest defensive rating
on the Bucks last season (min 40 games played), and not only posesses the
athleticism and strength to protect the rim, but also the defensive smarts. As
for his offensive side, it’s not as promising, but Sanders still finishes at
the rim very well and had a low turnover rate last season.
John Wall – Wall would be my bet for most improved player if
not for the fact that his minutes can’t increase that much from last season.
This means his per game stats won’t balloon that
much, and I think that will make him a bit less noticed overall for the MIP
award (also, there’s a slight injury risk here). But holy cow do I expect big
things from wall. Wall came back from injury last season and torched opponents,
cutting his turnover rate, passing better than ever, and shooting a tad better
than league average from the field (a good number for a high volume shooter).
He can get to the line almost at will, and with Bradley Beal spacing the floor
and Gortat setting screens, I expect Wall to significantly boost Washington’s
offensive performance from years past. He has a bit of work to do defensively, but
I think he will see an all-star appearance this year.
Anthony Davis – This is perhaps the most obvious bet for
most improved player, but I favor (couldn’t resist) Derrick in this situation
because I don’t think Davis’ jump in performance will be as significant as
Favors’. However, Davis is a good bet for an all-star and all-team NBA
selection within the next couple years for good reason. He rebounded very well
for a rookie last year, shot well from all around the floor, and showed signs
of developing into a game changing defender last season, and because his
development is accelerating so quickly, I expect him to take a leap in
performance this season.
Jimmy Butler – Butler will begin his third season in the
league as the starting shooting guard for Chicago, which should grant him
around 8 or so more minutes per game than last season. Butler is already a
terrific wing defender, and should continue to develop a credible 3-point shot
to further enhance his value. In what I expect to be the best defense in the
league in Chicago’s system, Butler should thrive defensively and gather a few
rebounds to do some stat padding.
Reggie Jackson – Jackson was quickly thrust into a starting
role in last year’s playoffs and actually fared quite well shooting 48% from
the field and playing much better than expected. That experience will benefit
him while Westbrook sits with injury for the first few weeks of the season, and
I expect him to pick up where he left off. His outside shot has improved
tremendously, and the relatively easy competition he faces at the beginning of
the season should prepare him for a strong 6th man role when
Westbrook comes back. If he plays well at the beginning of the season without
Westbrook, I’d expect to see him play at least 22 minutes per game coming off
the bench.
Andre Drummond – Drummond’s situation makes him a unique
selection for this list; he has potential to break out this year, but it’s hard
to see how much his role is increased with Josh Smith and Greg Monroe on the
team. If Monroe is traded and Drummond stays healthy, his numbers should
substantially inflate, but his health going forward is the biggest question
here. Drummond posted ridiculous a ridiculous rebounding rate last season, one
that would translate to 15 rebounds per game, and shot 60% from the field. I
expect him to improve (his minutes should increase by about 8-10 mpg), but the
magnitude of his development is contingent upon his health and size of his
role.
MVP
There are a surprising amount of NBA nerds predicting Kevin
Durant to take home the MVP trophy over LeBron James this year. Even though I’m
a Thunder fan, consider me among the pessimists of that argument. I actually
expect Durant to improve his production this year in terms of passing and
scoring, particularly while Westbrook is sidelined with his injury, but LeBron
is still the king for a reason. James registered the 7th highest
player efficiency rating ever recorded last season while shooting 56% from the
field and 40% from deep. As Wade and Bosh continue to Age, I expect LeBron to
continue to pick up the slack for the Heat, and win his 3rd
consecutive MVP.
Apologies to (in order): Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Chris
Paul
DPOY
To me this is a toss up between Roy Hibbert, Marc Gasol, and
Joakim Noah. I’m predicting the Bulls to have the best defense in the league,
but Noah hasn’t played more than 66 games in a season since 2008-2009, and
because he is seemingly always battling nagging injuries while resting and playing, he falls short of the top.
Gasol is the defending champion of this award, after anchoring the best
(Indiana and Memphis were 1a and 1b) defense in the league last year, but a new
coaching staff in Memphis gives me doubts as to whether it can regain its
dominance.
Roy Hibbert is a flat out beast on the defense that truly
orchestrates a seamless flow of coordinated movement on that end. Paul George
is the only player in that starting lineup that stands out as a great team
defender while the others are good but not great defenders. Hibbert’s
positioning on defense and ability to block and alter shots in the lane places
him atop this list in my opinion, and his improved conditioning should allow
him to hover around 30 mpg during the regular season. He also has a
blemish-free health record over the past few years which gives him even more
credibility for receiving this award.
EDIT: Why no Dwight Howard? I may be a little biased on this
one, but I don’t see Howard becoming the defensive terror he was in Orlando
again. Howard’s health has substantially declined over the past few seasons,
and while he gives the Rockets an upgrade defensively, I don’t think it’ll be
enough to win DPOY.
Apologies to (in order): Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Larry
Sanders, Dwight Howard
NBA Champion
So who is going to win it all? The short answer is I have no
idea. A lot of teams could make it to the finals this year, and I think the
Heat, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, Spurs, Nets, and even Rockets
have a good shot at winning a title. The NBA is a game of inches, and depending
on injuries, home court advantage, coaching, and just plain luck, the title
could swing in a bunch of different ways.
I don’t think Miami 3-peats this season. I like the
potential of the Bulls’ offense with Derrick Rose back in the lineup, and I
like them to top Miami to make it to the finals. In the west I think the
Thunder’s starting unit (Westbrook-Sefalosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins lineups
killed opponents last year during the regular season per NBA.com/stats)
continues its dominance in the postseason and knocks off the Warriors
(surprise) to make it to the finals again.
Bulls vs. Thunder is a toss up in my mind. I honestly have
no idea who would win this series if this prediction actually came to fruition.
I’ll take the Thunder to win the championship in 2014.
This is my prediction.
Enjoy the season NBA fans!
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