Season Preview/Pedictions 2013-2014

My, how the time flies. It seems like just yesterday we were on the edge of our seats for the first NBA finals game 7 in 3 years before LeBron slammed the door shut on his second consecutive NBA championship.

Over the offseason the Bulls got their superstar back from injury, the Pacers deepened their bench, the Nets reloaded through a blockbuster trade, and the rest of the NBA did everything in their power to shut Miami’s championship window. So here I am to present my blind claims of why the Heat won’t repeat, which teams will make the playoffs, and predict win totals of each team that look good on paper until someone like Kyrie Irving or Steph Curry suffer catastrophic injuries and and completely throw off my projections and make me look like an idiot.

East

1. Miami Heat 61-21

Not much to see here, Miami should continue to run the tables during the regular season with the majority of their roster unchanged. Dwyane Wade may sit a few more minutes than he did last year due to age and injury, but LeBron remains king for now, and the Heat have the added bonus of residual chemistry from the past two seasons.

2. Chicago Bulls 60-22

Chicago finally has the MVP back, and the negative effects of Tom Thibodeau’s extreme minute allocation to his starting 5 should balance out with the positive chemistry this unit exudes. Butler has another year of experience under his belt, and with Rose back on the roster, Hinrich, Gibson, and Dunleavy should provide relief to a starting five that has been banged up for the past couple years. I may be  a tad bullish (sorry) on the Bulls, but I really think Rose hits the ground running right off the bat.

3. Indiana Pacers 52-30

The NBA’s best defense in 2012-2013 retains its entire starting five again this season, not to mention a stacked bench that won’t actually self-destruct at the end of quarters. Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, and Danny Granger (hopefully) replace Tyler Hansbrough, D.J. Augustin, and Sam Young this year, and I expect Paul George and Roy Hibbert to both take a leap in terms of performance this year, even if it is a minor one.

4. Brooklyn Nets 52-30

I know I only have them finishing 4^th in the conference, but I expect Brooklyn to stumble through the regular season to a 3 or 4 seed and then make some noise in the playoffs. Garnett and Pierce will be under strict supervision as far as minutes go; I’d be surprised to see either significantly surpass 30 or so mpg this year.

5. New York Knicks 49-33

The Knicks took a downturn this offseason and I think it’ll bite them in the butt this year after finishing as the 2 seed last season. Bargnani doesn’t make this team significantly better in really any way unless he can go back to shooting like he did and 2010, and the continual health of Tyson Chandler remains uncertain for now.

6. Atlanta Hawks 42-40

Another freaking Pacers-Hawks first round that no one watches anyway because it’s on NBAtv? Crap I need to change this. Atlanta is boring as hell but should somehow stumble their way into the playoffs again as Lou Williams returns from injury and Elton Brand/Paul Millsap tag team the power forward position. Atlanta has potential to go searching for a blockbuster deal to arise at the trade deadline, which could totally throw this ranking off, but those moves are very uncertain so here we stand. Maybe the Cavs/Wizards can slip up a spot or two so as to match up Atlanta with Miami for an uneventful sweep.

7. Washington Wizards 41-41

With a healthy (hopefully) John Wall, this Wizards team looks to finally snag a playoff spot for the first time since 2007-2008. Wall is a stud (more on this later if I get time for it), and the Wall-Beal duo recorded a pleasant rating on NBA.com. Gortat is a nice addition to this roster that formerly featured an indefinitely-sidelined Emeka Okafor (although his value compared to Okafor’s is relatively neutral). The Wizards netted a near-.500 record after Wall returned from injury last season and I expect both players (Beal and Wall) to take a substantial leap in performance this season.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41

This is perhaps the most unpredictable team in the NBA; with good health and a few breaks this team could win 10 more games than projected. However, I have them right here at 8 considering it’d be optomistic to even pencil in Verajao and Bynum combined for 82 games. Irving has his health history as well, and we can go ahead and assume he’ll be out for at least 15 games as usual. But a healthy Cavs team is very dangerous, especially with Tristan Thompson developing into a force at the power forward position and everyone loves watching Verajao fly around the court for 25 games until he fractures his foot… Okay these injuries are depressing, moving on.

9. Detroit Pistons 40-42

How much will Josh Smith help the Pistons? My bet is not much, at least when Detroit goes big with Drummond, Smith and Monroe all sharing the floor at once. They’ll need  a lot of help from the backcourt to spread the floor here which is asking a lot from Brandon Jennings and company. It’ll be interesting to see what Joe Dumars does with Monroe as trade bait. Barring a spectacular sophomore season from Andre Drummond, this team is lottery bound.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 36-46

Milwaukee has a total of four players remaining on this year’s roster from last year, but should still finish in about the same position despite the overhaul. Brandon Knight and O.J. Mayo supplement this deep but unspectacular frontcourt and the only long term player I see on this roster is Larry Sanders who coincidentally just signed a 4 year extension at a very reasonable price. Milwaukee will evaluate Brandon Knight to see if he is the point guard of the future, which is very unlikely and why I have the Bucks finishing 10^th in the east.

11. Toronto Raptors 36-46

I actually have Toronto finishing a tad higher than last season (34 wins), mainly because of the development of Jonas Valanciunas, but the major negative of the new bench (Augustin, Novak, Hansbrough) pretty much balances this out. There’s a new GM in town which means practically everyone is movable especially Rudy Gay. If Ujiri can find a buyer for Gay, I expect him to be gone quickly.

12. Charlotte Bobcats 26-56

Al Jefferson provides watchability at the very least, and perhaps a few more wins than last year’s total of 21. The young core of Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller will continue to develop chemistry together, and Charlotte will hopefully toe the line between being watchable and solidifying a strong lottery pick. It’s still going to be a rough one for Bobcat fans.

13. Boston Celtics 25-57

The Celtics will be very bad this year, and the only reason I don’t place them even lower comes from the puny competition they face at the bottom of the eastern conference. Boston Plays Toronto, Orlando and Philadelphia 4 times each, as well as Charlotte 3 times so I expect them to practically walk in to a third of their wins there. Rondo will be out for most of the season, if not all of it, but I don’t think his presence would bring them into contention anyway.

14. Orlando Magic 23-59

Orlando is playing it safe here by building and developing talent, and this unit should develop microscopically from last season as I have them finishing with 3 more wins than the 2012-2013 campaign. Vucevic is a quality center, one I have my eye on, and Victor Olidipo is one to watch for the rookie of the year award. The Magic will be bad, but could be bad enough to lock up a top 5 pick again in next year’s stacked draft.

15. Philidelphia 76ers 12-70

They’re going to suck. That’s about it. Nerlens Noel may be inactive the entire season, and Jrue Holiday is long gone. Defensively they have some talent, but the sixers should finish last in points per possession offensively. Evan Turner will have more ball handling capabilities, so his development this season is really the only thing to watch here.

West

1. San Antonio Spurs 56-26

No particular team made significant strides in the Western Conference over the offseason, and this convinces me that San Antonio will clinch the top seed by a hair this season. Tim Duncan surely won’t replicate the productive season he had last season, but Kawhi Leonard’s development should partially make up for it and no one coaches as well as Greg Popovich.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 55-27

OKC will miss Russell Westbrook for the first few weeks of the season, but his inactivity should only set them back a tad with a relatively easy November schedule. Kevin Durant should improve even more this season (gasp) as should Ibaka and Westbrook, and this window is far from closed. Scott Brooks will be challenged to innovate more offensively, but those challenges will mostly arise in playoff time, and OKC should remain among the best of the west.

3. Los Angeles Clippers 54-28

The west’s top three were the hardest for me to rank, simply because all three seem interchangeable. Yes, I allotted L.A. with two fewer wins than last season, but the west simply got better. The teams at the top slipped a little bit (Tim Duncan aging, Westbrook injury, Denver’s dysfunction) from last season, but those slips were minor (save for Denver) compared to the improvements made by teams like Houston, Golden State, New Orleans, Minnesota, and Portland. As for the Clippers, Doc Rivers should improve this team overall, but it’s hard to pinpoint the exact potential of the Griffin-Jordan frontline defensively. Factoring in Chris Paul’s yearly knee issues makes me hesitant to place them higher than third, thus here they stand.

4. Houston Rockets 52-30

The Rockets will certainly receive a performance boost with Dwight Howard on the roster, and if he stays healthy it likely places Houston among the elite in the west. But it’s hard to predict Howard’s performance given his injury issues over the past few years, and while he certainly makes them better, I don’t think D12 takes them quite over the top just yet. Omer Asik provides a quality backup, but I’d be surprised if Houston didn’t trade him for rotational pieces sometime during the season. Houston will be good, but not quite good enough for a top 3 seed this year.

5. Golden State Warriors 52-30

This is another team I desperately want to place higher with all of the talent on this roster plus the tremendous coaching, but the injury risk makes me hesitant to do so. Stephen Curry had his first “healthy” season last year since 2010-2011, and Andrew Bogut has played a total of 43 regular season games over the past two years. Andre Iguodala plus a healthy Bogut make this team a legit championship contender, but it’s hard to predict how healthy they will be overall throughout the season. If they remain intact through the playoffs, the Warriors are a good bet to make it to the Western Conference Finals.

6. Memphis Grizzlies 50-32

The Grizz have the setback of the growing pains that come from a new coaching system, but Mike Miller’s addition over the offseason should help this team space the floor on offense. The core is still intact with Conley, Allen, Gasol, Randolph and Prince, but it’s hard to justify this team’s ceiling being considerably higher than 50 wins or so. I still love this defense, but Memphis takes a small step back this year with the coaching change to the 6 seed.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves 44-38

I’m banking on this being the year that things finally come together for Minnesota. Rubio, Love, and Pekovic are all healthy (for now), and there are some quality rotational pieces filling in the gaps. Kevin Martin comes in from Oklahoma City as does Corey Brewer from Denver, and this team should light it up offensively with a quality inside-out balance. It’s defensively suspect, but not terribly; the Love-Pekovic defensive deficiencies are a bit overblown in my mind which is why I think this is a playoff team.

8. New Orleans Pelicans 42-40

I have the Pellies barely surpassing the Mavs for the final playoff spot in the west just by a gut feeling. I expect Anthony Davis to have a big year 2 in New Orleans here, and I’m a huge fan of Jrue Holiday. Eric Gordan can be used as an efficient scorer or trade bait, and Ryan Anderson and Tyreke Evans provide offensive assistance. Monty Williams is a solid coach as well, and I’m excited for what this team can do.

9. Dallas Mavericks 40-42

I think Dallas certainly has the talent of a playoff team, if it wasn’t for being in the loaded western conference and the toughest division in basketball. Everyone in this division is very talented, which means 16 games total against said talent alone, and I think Dallas is the least proficient of the pack. Dirk is in a contract year, and with his retirement is quickly approaching, it makes me wonder if Mark Cuban has any tricks up his sleeve.

10. Denver Nuggets 40-42

What a tumble. From 57 wins in 2012-2013 I have Denver winning 17 less games this season because of injuries and poor management. A new coach and injuries to Gallinari and Wilson Chandler make me question this team’s potential this season. They have the plusses of a strong home court advantage and a relatively easy division, but I think this team underperforms this season.

11. Portland Trail Blazers 38-44

NBA bloggers are much more optimistic about the Blazers’ potential this season than I am. I think this team will continue to struggle defensively with Robin Lopez protecting the rim (although he’s a significant upgrade over J.J. Hickson), and I don’t think Damian Lillard makes a significant leap in performance going forward. LaMarcus Aldridge has just about peaked at a “great but not elite” power forward in this league, and a second year head coach convinces me that Portland isn’t just ready yet.

12. Los Angeles Lakers 38-44

Lol. I will say I’m super excited to see Kobe come back, and reports are saying that Pau Gasol is looking “better than expected”. But there’s no way the Lakers make the playoffs this year with Chris Kaman starting at center and Nick Young registering significant minutes. They will be horrid defensively, even worse than last season, and I expect them to get beat up pretty badly by the Clippers and Warriors.

13. Sacramento Kings 30-52

Greivis Vasquez makes this roster a bit more intriguing with his passing ability, but Sacramento’s new ownership has a lot of work to do to drag this team out of the cellar. The only thing worth monitoring this year is Demarcus Cousins’ performance as the clock ticks toward the deadline for a contract extension. The Kings have a lot of work to do before they can contend again.

14. Utah Jazz 25-57

I’m a bit more optimistic than most about this team’s potential, and factoring in a strong home court advantage I expect Utah to scratch out 25 wins this season. Jefferson and Millsap are both gone, but this comes at the perfect time as I expect Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter to blossom (more to come on this later hopefully). Trey Burke will go through some growing pains, but this season has been thrown away already, and the young core of Burke, Burks, Hayward, Kanter, and Favors could develop into something special in a year or two.

15. Phoenix Suns 19-62

Phoenix is going to be bad, even worse than last year with no Luis Scola or Marcin Gortat in the starting lineup. Goran Dragic is still here, and Eric Bledsoe was the key piece in the three team deal between the Clippers, Suns, and Bucks this offseason, so the Dragic-Bledsoe pairing will be somewhat interesting to watch. My guy to watch, however, is Alex Len; I think he has tremendous potential and is very young as well (20), so while he won’t be amazing anytime soon, I think he could develop into something very nice for this organization in the future.