Monday, October 7, 2013

Free Agency Review - Southwest Division

I finally made it. It’s taken  me about two months and 15,000 words to cover all teams’ transactions in free agency, and I’m finally taking on the final part of this 6 part series. This will cover the Southwest division, perhaps the most competitive division in the league next season.

San Antonio Spurs

Key additions: Marco Bellinelli
Key subtractions: DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Tracy McGrady
San Antonio will remain mostly unchanged per usual, and after retaining Tiago Splitter and signing sharpshooter Marco Bellinelli, should make another championship run provided Tim Duncan strikes the fountain of youth again. San Antonio signed Splitter to a 4 year $36 million contract, and while that seems a bit steep for a fringe starter like Tiago, the deal is actually structured quite favorably. Tiago will receive $10 million next year, and his salary in the following years decreases by $750,000 each year as he ages. Splitter isn’t a great player by any means, but he should provide a decent cushion once (if ever) Tim Duncan’s productivity declines. Bellinelli should provide a nice spark off the bench and can stroke it from downtown in Gary Neal’s absence.
However, this team’s title hopes hinge completely on the productivity of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan as they always have. Duncan and Manu are old (37, 36), and while this window has been closing for the past few years, it could finally be closed this year. Manu struggled mightily in last years playoffs, and one wonders how much more Duncan could have in the tank come playoff time. Kawhi Leonard projects to be a stud, but no one else on this roster has potential to reach stardom, and it will be interesting to see in which direction this franchise goes once Duncan, Ginobili and Popovich retire.
The good news here is the cap flexibility, to no surprise given the reputation of this organization. After the 2014/2015 season, Splitter’s 4 year contract is the only contract on the books, and if Duncan denies his player option that season, the Spurs could have max cap room as soon as next year. It’s unlikely that San Antonio would ever make a huge splash in free agency, but we all know they will continue to draft well in the next coming years. As for now, they’ll keep the same personnel they’ve had for the past few years and make a run at a title, and they still might just have a decent shot. And they stayed beneath the luxury tax. Nice job.
Grade: A

Memphis Grizzlies

Key Additions: Kosta Koufos, Mike Miller
Key Subtractions: Darrell Arthur, Tony Wroten, Keyon Dooling, Austin Daye
Let’s just say this: Memphis had one of the most impressive teams in the league last year. With a smothering defense from top to bottom, Lionel Hollins’ defensive scheme lead the western conference in defensive points per possession.
And then Memphis let Hollins walk… why?
Yes, it can be argued that the Westbrook injury allowed Memphis to advance further than they originally would have, but why tamper with a team that made it to the Western Conference Finals?? This team doesn’t have a lofty ceiling offensively, but with Mike Miller spacing the floor they could probably scrap together a league average offense to supplement their destructive defense. But it’s hard to tell how good this defense will be with Lionel Hollins gone. A team’s title window is such a precious time frame, especially in the NBA, and the decision to move one of the NBA’s best coaches from a team who thrives from his defensive schemes is a poor decision in my mind.
Other than that, however, Memphis played the little things pretty well. Desperate for outside shooting, the Grizzlies somehow landed Mike Miller over Oklahoma City, a move that surprised many NBA junkies, myself included. It will be interesting to see how lineups featuring both Quincy Pondexter and Mike Miller fair offensively, as they stand as the only consistent and reliable sharpshooters on this current roster. Kosta Koufos will provide a true backup center for Marc Gasol, and can improve bench units both offensively and defensively.
But I think the decision to let Lionel Hollins out of Memphis will be their falling point, especially after signing the players on this roster specifically to fit into his defensive scheme. Tony Allen just signed a 4 year contract, Conley has 3 years left on his deal, and Gasol and Randolph each have 2 years remaining. This was supposed to be the core that could reach a title, but Memphis unwisely released its catalyst. Not to mention, this team is tied up on the books until at least the summer of 2015 assuming Marc Gasol picks up his player option.
There will still be a very good basketball team in Memphis this year, but I think we saw their peak last season.
Grade: C

Houston Rockets

Key additions: Ronnie Brewer, Marcus Camby, Dwight Howard, Omri Casspi, Reggie Williams
Key subtractions: James Anderson, Carlos Delfino, Thomas Robinson, Royce White
Well they did it. Going against the common theory of success in the NBA, the Rockets have ascended to the level of championship contender without tanking first for a top draft pick. With Dwight Howard and James Harden both on the roster through the summer of 2017, Houston has invested the franchise’s next 4 to 5 seasons in these potential superstars. There is plenty of talent surrounding this potentially devastating duo, but it’s sure to overturn substantially throughout the next few years as Houston will work around their big contracts with quality role players.
The quality ownership is there; Daryl Morey has proven himself to be a top 5 general manager in the NBA, and actually has quite a few assets to work with in the coming years, specifically Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik. Many expect Asik to be moved at some point during the season, but reports claim Morey wants to keep him on the roster for the time being. Chandler Parsons is another quality asset on perhaps the most valuable contract in the NBA.
But the success of this team hinges almost completely on the health of Dwight Howard and the development of James Harden going forward. Both have asserted themselves as superstars in the league by now, and the chemistry of the two on both sides of the ball will determine the fate of this team. I’ve already covered some of my thoughts on Howard and his value, and I’ll continue on that trend and say I’m hesitant on his ability to completely recover to his prime. His health has diminished substantially within the past few years, and his defensive contributions to the Lakers last year did more harm than good. He certainly makes Houston better, but the success of this team I think will hinge mostly on Harden’s production.
As for their cap situation, the Rockets will be capped out for at least the next two summers, and considering the gargantuan contracts of Harden and Howard together, they won’t be able to make a significant free agency splash for at least 4 years. However,  Morey needed another superstar to pair with Harden, and he struck gold once again with Howard. Casspi and Reggie Williams add long range shooting to an offense that thrives on it, and Ronnie Brewer and Marcus Camby provide insurance for substantial injuries. This team should be significantly better than they were last year.
Grade: A

Dallas Mavericks

Key additions: DeJuan Blair, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Sam Dalembert, Wayne Ellington, Devin Harris, Shane Larkin
Key subtractions: Roddy Beaubois, Elton Brand, Elton Brand, Darren Collison, Jared Cunningham,  Mike James, Chris Kaman, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Morrow
There’s no such thing as “tanking” for Mark Cuban, especially when Dirk Nowitzki is around, even if that means signing a hot shot like Monta Ellis to a 3 year deal. This roster is well above the cap for the upcoming season, but lacks substantial talent, and in the scrappy western conference, the Mavs would be blessed to even score an eight seed by the end of the year.
There are plenty of good contracts and plenty of bad. Sam Dalembert comes in on the good side, and with a  2 year deal under 8$ million that’s only partially guaranteed, it’s a steal for the Mavs. Dalembert is one of the more underrated centers in a league that severely lacks depth at that position. He can protect the rim, rebounds very effectively, and doesn’t make mistakes. Jose Calderon comes in at a decent price as well, and while I don’t like giving a 32 year old a 4 year contract, he is a quality point guard who  shoots the ball well and plays the role of floor general very well. Dejuan Blair is another steal for under $1 million.
But there’s a lot of bad as well, and it’s all Monta Ellis. Signing him to a 3 year deal is one thing, but one that is worth $26 million is way too much, even considering the scoring punch he adds offensively. Dirk’s not going to be around for forever, and if he bolts as soon as his contract expires next summer, that means having an offensive cancer on your roster for two more years than you’d like to. Ellis is perhaps the league’s most inefficient scorer, and a back court of Calderon and Ellis is going to be defensively unreliable. I’ve always thought of him as a bench scorer and nothing more, but allowing him to start for teams is a poor decision in my mind.
This year will be similar to the previous two, a few breaks here and there and the Mavs could find a way to sneak into the playoffs for a first round sweep or 5 game exit and nothing more. The future is interesting though considering Dirk’s situation as well as how the younger guys (Crowder, Larkin) develop. The Mavs would have max cap room next summer by by letting Dirk walk after his cap hold expires, and Dallas has always been an alluring destination for free agents. As for now, the Mavs are sticking with a “win now” mindset. Let’s see if that pays off long term.
Grade: B-

New Orleans Pelicans

Key additions: Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Anthony Morrow, Greg Steimsma
Key subtractions: Lou Amundson, Terrel Harris, Robin Lopez, Greivis Vasquez, Roger Mason
 
This is the team I’m most intrigued to watch this season, simply because this unit could either mesh into a powerful playoff force, or self destruct into an 11 seed. Unlike Philadelphia management, I’m very high on Jrue Holiday’s potential as a floor general and his basketball IQ; Holiday substantially elevated his play last year in Philadelphia despite being held back by an offensive system that didn’t allow him to fully blossom.
NOLA has other pieces as well. Eric Gordon is one of my absolute favorite players in the league when healthy, someone who can attack the rim with force, draw fouls in a heap, and shoot well from deep. He’s a go to scorer who can serve as a floor spacer when Holiday and Evans are handling the ball. Anthony Davis has perhaps the most potential out of any young player in the entire league, and Tyreke Evans quietly had a decent season last year in Sacramento. The list of quality pieces extends even further than this with Austin Rivers coming off the bench and Robin Lopez filling in as a capable starting center, something this team desperately needed.
The biggest concern with this team considers how the Pelicans’ logjam of ball handlers will mesh on offense. Tyreke Evans is one who is almost only effective with the ball in his hands after recognizing his lack of an outside shot, yet Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, and even Austin Rivers occasionally could all serve as primary ball handlers on most teams. They should still space the floor evenly, but Monty Williams has some interesting decision making to do regarding lineups this season. If something goes awry, it might be wise to trade one of these studs for a couple specialists and/or draft picks to continue building for the future.
But even if NOLA idles forward this season, Anthony Davis should still develop into one of the best players in the league, and they aren’t but a few pieces away from being a strong force even in the western conference. They’ve done well to have some cap room in the upcoming years, and New Orleans has added enough pieces to snag a solid playoff spot. It’s just a matter of how effectively the talent translates into production and how Monty Williams handles it.
Grade: B+

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