KD's Case in the MVP Race

If there were ever a year in which Kevin Durant could actually wrestle away the MVP trophy from LeBron James, it would be this one.

As expected, the Thunder offense has been wildly inconsistent post-Westbrook knee surgery, going 7-5 in the 12 games since the surgery December 27. Those 12 games have disclosed some harsh developments in the Thunder’s overall play including Reggie Jackson’s inconsistency as a playmaker, Serge Ibaka’s inability to create shots of his own, and requiring Derek Fisher to play extended minutes. However, number 35 is the only player on Oklahoma City’s payroll who has been consistent on both sides of the ball sans Westbrook.

In fact, consistent doesn’t even do him justice. Kevin Durant has been spectacular.

In the aforementioned 12 games, Durant has averaged 36.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds on 50% shooting from the field and fewer turnovers per game (2.8) than he averaged with Westbrook sharing the court (3.3). Oh, and while we’re at it, he’s averaged 4.2 more shot attempts, 3 more free throw attempts, and more minutes per game during this stretch.

It’s pretty obvious that if he can continue to put up these high volumes consistently, Kevin Durant will be the favorite to win the MVP award. No player in the NBA can score as efficiently as KD can, and very few have the extra level he has in the fourth quarter. But the MVP award isn’t necessarily awarded to the best NBA player, but the most valuable one, and there are a lot of intangibles KD will need to fall in place in order to effectively display the enormous value he provides to the Thunder in a way that will get him votes.

Define His Value by Production

Oklahoma City will need to win enough games without Westbrook to comfortably tread water around the top of the western conference record wise, and eventually finish the season strong with a healthy Westbrook and glide into a top 2 seed to add weight to the MVP credibility. A huge chunk of “value” comes from wins added from the roster, and to qualify Durant as the MVP, we must prove that OKC would be a garbage team without him, or at least try to.

Offensive and defensive rating statistics aren’t always indicative of a player’s true value on the court, but it is at least a good start. The offense scores at a rate of 107.3 points per 100 possessions when Durant is on the floor, and 103.2 when he sits per NBA.com. This is a substantial difference: about the difference between a 3^rd ranked offense and a 16^th ranked offense. There are many other factors that go into this discussion, but considering he has posted these numbers with over 1500 minutes played and understanding all of these minutes are meaningful minutes (Durant sits during garbage time), it’s at least somewhat conclusive that he elevates this offense from “lottery team” to “elite level”.

However, there’s even more that goes into it. To better prove this theory, we should hypothetically replace Durant with a mid-tier power forward (replacement player, someone along the lines of Trevor Ariza), reconstruct the offense such that Jackson accumulates a greater percentage of touches, consider the harsh disadvantages of thrusting Serge Ibaka into a second option, and factor in Scott Brooks’ reluctance to tinker with starting lineups.

These indemonstrable claims seem to add weight to the original claim that removing Durant from the roster would face OKC with catastrophic consequences. Even with Westbrook playing his expected 50 or so games this season, it’s hard to see this Durant-less offense cracking the top half in the league. The Thunder defense would still be good it seems, but in the ultra-competitive western conference, this would likely be a lottery/fringe playoff team.

Win Games

OKC is 30-10 currently (as of when this article is written). If they could finish the season on this pace with 60 wins AND Durant continues this dominant performance through the rest of the season, that should be enough to qualify him for his first MVP. Let’s talk about exactly why.

First off, the team struggled getting out of the gate without Westbrook. There was a nice win on the road against a decent Charlotte team and a dominating performance at home against Houston, but OKC has lost games to Portland, Brooklyn, Utah, Denver, and Memphis. Yes, most of these are western conference teams, but 5 losses in 8 games plants a substantial blemish on Durant’s record.

However, losing Westbrook to injury proved to be such an abrupt situation, and adjustments had to be made on the fly to account for his absence. “One night he played, the next night they said he was out for a few months”, said Durant about the injury. The Portland and Brooklyn losses were specifically a result of poor late game offense by OKC, but to harness Durant with responsibility for the losses to Denver (Foye’s fortunate long range shooting), Utah (poor first half defense), and Memphis (OKC just missed some open threes) would be unreasonable.

The point is that it sometimes takes luck to win NBA games, and takes even more luck to win consistently. The hiccups in the offense in the few games after the Westbrook injury are to be expected as adjustments are made on the fly, but as Durant continues to post these enormous stat totals, it is unfair to cast the blame for inconsistent offensive performance solely on his shoulders.

If we have effectively concluded that OKC would most likely be a lottery/fringe playoff team in Durant’s absence in the ruthless western conference, then it should be clear enough to distinguish the amount of value he brings to the team in terms of wins. MVP candidates bring value to their teams in different ways; Kevin Love may elevate the Wolves from a 25-win team to a 42-win team (just a rough guess). Durant probably adds a similar total; however raising a team from “borderline playoff” to “championship contender” establishes much more credibility. Also, factoring in the relatively relaxed attitude LeBron has been playing with thus far to conserve energy for the playoffs, and the much smaller (comparatively) role he plays on offense), I think that gives Durant the edge here.