Perhaps it was one of the most thrilling endings in NBA Finals’ history, including an epic game 6 finish and one of the wildest comebacks ever. Perhaps it was our sudden glimpse of Miami’s vulnerability in the playoffs, sending a smug fan base formerly assured of absolute domination after a 27 game win streak into uncertainty and unwarranted desperation. Perhaps it was six first round series’ extending 6 games or beyond, revealing the sudden emergences of the super splash brothers (Klay Thompson and Steph Curry), Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard. Or perhaps it was simply a culmination of all of the above, supplemented by a regular season full of highlights such as this or this that tied together to produce an unforgettable postseason and a somehow inevitable second straight championship for Miami.
Last year’s NBA season supplied its viewers with constant entertainment and a reminiscent souvenir as to why life is so awesome as a sports fan.
It was littered with entertaining storylines both good and bad. There was LeBron’s continued dominance that included the 6th best player efficiency rating EVER. Chris Paul and Kevin Durant were both sabotaged by a cohesive Memphis defense when their star teammates were sidelined with injuries. Speaking of Memphis, the Grizzlies, as well as Indiana’s scrappy defensive unit, replicated months of scouting and strategizing to on-court perfection, practically revolutionizing the new age NBA defensive system by packing the paint and stifling pick-and-rolls. Similarly, teams such as Houston and Miami followed by dominating offensively through tactics such as stuffing the floor with 3-point snipers, attacking the rim, and continuous ball movement that bewildered opposing defenses and destroyed help schemes. Tim Duncan struck gold at the fountain of youth, and coupled with Tony Parker’s best season of his career, the duo escorted the “boring” Spurs to the NBA Finals for the 3rd time. Marc Gasol and Joakim Noah gained some much needed recognition as defensive aces in the bloodbaths that were their playoff series’, and the league again facepalmed by failing to name the defensive player of the year (Gasol) to the first team all-defense.
There was also plenty of bad. Star players went down with injuries left and right, some of them arguably costing their respective team playoff success or even a playoff spot. Players such as Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, Andrew Bogut, Anderson Varejao, Kyrie Irving, Danilo Gallinari, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, John Wall, and even the superhuman Kobe took a fall for at least part of the season, and in some cases the whole thing. This year’s draft class looks pitiful, and barring some bright moves over the offseason, the Bobcats will once again be locked in the cellar. David Stern has announced he will step down as commissioner, and the league has still done very little to erase its name from a few Oscar ballots.
But all in all, it was a terrific year, so here are a few things to look back on and look forward to:
It’s a League of Point Guards:
Okay, here’s a fun game. Rank these point guards in order from best to worst with absolutely no error whatsoever: Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry, Mike Conley, Deron Williams, and Ty Lawson. It’s impossible; I promise you can’t do it. Each point guard has their own unique strengths and weaknesses, style of play, and amount of offense run through them specifically. Nearly every one of these players led their respective team to the playoffs and gained some well-deserved recognition in each of their playoff performances. Even John Wall and Jrue Holiday nearly singlehandedly pushed their respective organization to a low playoff seed, with the Wiz netting a 24-25 record in games that Wall played after his early season injury.1
No other position in the league has as much parity at the top of the rankings, and all of these relatively young guards should continue to take the league by storm for the next few years. Perhaps the most interesting trend to recognize going forward is how the next few drafts play out; no remarkable point guards were drafted in last year’s draft (save an argument for Damian Lillard which I broke down here), and the same should be said for this year’s draft as well unless Trey Burke develops into something special.
Let’s talk about LeBron
Look I don’t want to sit here and beat a dead horse; everyone knows he is the best player in the game, and quite frankly, it’s not that close. But sometimes it seems that we (myself included), see his dominance as something normal or natural given his style of play and consistent performance over the last few years, particularly during the regular season.
So let’s go through some of his statistics and dissect his style of play to really comprehend his value.
LeBron ranked
- - First in player efficiency rating, setting the 6th highest mark ever and exceeding Durant’s mark (the second best) by exactly 3.5 points
- - Second in usage rate only to Carmelo Anthony, yet exceeded Melo’s true shooting percentage mark by 9%
- - First in FG% at the rim at a spectacular 76%, shooting better from there than most players do at the FREE THROW LINE
- - Shot over 56% from the field on 17 attempts per game, the former the highest of his career
- - Shot over 40% on three point attempts, transforming that shot from what was formerly a bail-out shot to something that enhanced his game to the point that he was practically unguardable
- - Oh, and he had a turnover rate less than 10%, a number that would rank among the likes of Tony Parker and other elite ball handlers2
So yeah, you could say he’s pretty good. But do we actually realize how great he actually is? In a culture defined by Sportscenter highlights that feature clutch three pointers, wild blocks, and players that can singlehandedly take the game over with 5 minutes left, it seemed that LeBron’s greatness was relatively marginalized during the regular season in comparison to the Lakers’ struggles and the Western Conference’s internal battles for playoff seeding.3
Ironically though, this was simply because the Heat flat out dominated through the entire regular season. In fact, during the 27 game win streak, the Heat outscored opponents so greatly that only 6 of those games were decided within 5 points or less. LeBron never really had to take games over in the last few minutes this year (save for a few contests) simply because Miami’s dominance overpowered opponents through the first three quarters. Of course I’m not saying the Heat’s supremacy goes unnoticed, but perhaps LeBron’s dominance is considered almost expected considering his consistency over the last few years.
It shouldn’t be; this is greatness, and even more remarkable has been his year-by-year improvement. He’s now absolutely lethal from anywhere on the floor, and while he can be criticized for not having “Kobe’s killing instinct”, he doesn’t always need it to win games. No matter where you rank him in the GOAT discussion, it’s clear that he’s the best player in the game today, and with his health and IQ, he should assert his dominance for years to come. Two consecutive titles speak for themselves.
The revolutionizing of NBA defense
Only a few teams can clearly claim the spotlight for this one, but give it a few years and most teams should switch to a pack-the-paint/ICE pick-and-rolls defensive style. Tom Thibodeau is the original mind behind these genius ideas, with Frank Vogel, Lionel Hollins, and a few others trailing behind. The idea of these defenses is simple: clog the paint as often as possible using the 2.9 theorem (stay in the paint for as long as possible while simultaneously avoiding a defensive 3 second violation), and force as many side pick-and-rolls to the baseline to use the out of bounds zone as a 6th defender. Chicago, Indiana, and Memphis ranked 5th, 1st, and 2nd respectively in defensive efficiency, and offenses will be hard pressed to develop diverse strategies to disrupt these fine-tuned defensive systems over the next few years.
The key to these systems starts with having a defensive ace at center; Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, and Roy Hibbert orchestrate these stingy units through their stout rim protection and mobility all around the floor. In fact, they are so good at deterring opposing offenses from scoring in the paint that sub-par defensive teammates’ deficiencies are somewhat masked when they can share the court with these aces. David West’s and Zach Randolph’s defensive performance on-court/off-court was relatively unaffected because of the big men looming behind them protecting the rim. This is a tremendous aid to either team, as it allows these types of players to focus more on the offensive end where they can truly shine.
I’m also a huge fan of playing ICE on pick and rolls, a strategy being used by more and more teams today. This is simply deterring the ball handler from using the screen on a pick and roll by shading him to the opposite side. The defender of the roll man then stands far behind the action to clog the paint and force the ball handler to pull up for a long 2. This strategy is mostly utilized on side pick-and-rolls to force the primary ball handler towards the baseline as opposed to letting him penetrate the middle and pick apart the defense.
The Irony of the Dwight Howard trade
It originally appeared to be another sad tale of a defenseless small market organization being simultaneously abused by a big market giant and an immature franchise big man who wanted nothing to do with such a pathetic organization. Orlando looked as if it had traded Dwight Howard to LA for pennies on the dollar, while all the other organizations involved in the trade seemed to have landed the big fish they needed to complete their next plan to compete for a championship. Ironically, despite John Hollinger’s break down of the trade here4
, Orlando arguably came out of this trade the winner even though NO ONE saw it that way at the time. Dwight Howard was a shell of his former self last season, declining from the League’s best defensive player to moving laterally about as well as the average giraffe. Not only was last year bad, but this also has to be concerning for his next franchise’s front office going forward (they should enroll him at the local pre-k while they're at it). Howard’s health has been in rapid decline in the past two seasons (remember he missed the 2012 postseason), and you’ve gotta wonder how much left he has in the tank.
Bynum was no good either, after a spectacular and relatively injury-free season in 2011-2012, L.A. pulled the trigger on him at the perfect time. In fact, Bynum played the most minutes of his career that season, and scratched out a nice 60 games that year (well above his average). It was certainly his best season ever, and Philadelphia took on much more risk than they had bargained for. Certainly the city of brotherly love had expected at least half a season from this hothead, who reportedly re-tweaked his knee while bowling. Any team that gets more than half of a season from Bynum is banking at this point. Apparently I could use his barber’s number, though.
Denver came out of this trade the most immediate beneficiary, as Iguodala perfectly complimented Ty Lawson in Denver’s fast-paced offense, driving them to 5th in the league in offensive efficiency. Andre aided in bandaging Denver’s formerly porous defense as well, as the Nuggets were 4.8 points per 100 possessions better defensively while Iguodala was on the floor. However, it’s concerning here going forward, although in no fault to Andre. Denver recently and bewilderingly fired its GM and George freaking Karl: the guy who hasn’t had a losing season since ’88. Iguodala now faces a huge decision between signing with an organization that may be going downhill fast, or testing free agency in hopes of landing with a more likely contender. Remember, due to Bird rights, Denver is the only team that can sign Iggy to 5 years instead of 4.
Orlando suddenly looks like it game out of this deal decently, if not well. First off, the biggest surprise here is Nikola Vucevic, your typical amiable European big man. Vucevic was the league’s 5th best overall rebounder, shot over 50% from the floor, showed a terrific mid-range jumper, and is only 22 years old in his second season. Oh, and did I mention he made $17.5 MILLION FREAKING DOLLARS LESS than Dwight Howard did last season? Look, this guy could turn out to be just another run of the mill center, but in a league with very few great big men under $2 million is a steal, and his youth and potential to be healthy (gulp)5
make him a promising asset for years to come.6
So Orlando is now ironically sitting pretty. The Magic got rid of Jason Richardson in the D12 trade to clear some cap room, and if they decline Hakim Warrick’s team option and can indeed cut Al Harrington from their salary cap (both moves should be expected), they could have a substantial amount of cap room to build around; roughly $10 million or so. Tobias Harris tore it up late in the season after the J.J. Redick trade from Milwaukee, and if Orlando plays the draft lottery well for the next couple years, they could boost their success faster than expected.
Teams of the future
Houston, Indiana, and Cleveland seem to be the most promising teams when looking ahead to the future; all three have tremendous cap space assuming they hit the free agency pool hard enough, and barring injuries all three should see some playoff action as soon as next year and for years to come.
Houston seems like a good place to start this topic; they already have a legitimate superstar capable of nearly everything offensively, a couple of multi-dimensional role players, and plenty of aforementioned cap space. The James Harden trade might have been partially overshadowed by the Dwight Howard trade, but it seems to have more implications going forward considering D12 is likely on the move again anyway. Harden is a terrific slasher, passer, scorer, finisher, shooter, and basically everything else on offense. He can score in the half court and in transition, and is almost unstoppable in pick-and-rolls. Houston has him on the books for the next four years, and will look to load their roster with plenty of talent to accompany him.
And they are already half way there. Chandler parsons may have been the steal of the 2011 draft; he’s on Houston’s payroll under a team option that will pay him less than $2 million for the next two years combined. Omer Asik provides a foundation for a defense that desperately needs it; Houston’s defensive efficiency ranked a solid 10th when Asik was on the floor, compared to a pitiful 26th when he rode the pine. The defense simply needs to improve, though it’s no fault to Asik that it was so terrible for a playoff team. Harden, Parsons, and Lin need to develop into at least mediocre ball stoppers on the perimeter or else Houston may not reach their full potential.
But the good news is they have plenty of time. Everyone on Houston’s roster last year is 26 years or younger save for Aaron Brooks, Carlos Delfino, and Francisco Garcia.7
Even if the Rockets can’t land a big fish like Howard or Paul, they should be able to snag some decent two-way players in free agency for a strong playoff run in 2014.
Indiana is another team that I think can make noise for seasons to come, although after the 7 game series in the Eastern Conference Semifinals this past season, it seems as if they have already been widely recognized. Paul George (I wrote about him here) and Roy Hibbert are obviously the two names everyone has been talking about, and they should continue to coordinate this league-leading defense. Indiana will have plenty of cap space this summer, which will mostly be forwarded to the David West resigning effort.
Hopefully, though, they can scratch some dollars off the top of the leftovers and funnel that toward improving their bench. Thankfully D.J. Augustin and Sam Young are both free agents; ironically they were two role players that could have cost Indiana a trip to the finals last year. Danny Granger will most likely be healthy again next year to either head a bench unit or replace Lance Stephenson8
in the starting lineup, and if the Pacers can get a capable two-way guard off the bench, they could have a real shot at contending next year.
Cleveland is the most indeterminate of the three in regards to its future, simply because of Kyrie Irving’s random nagging injuries, however I do expect them to make a playoff run within the next few years if they continue to play their cards right. Check out this draft fortune: 2011 Draft: Picks 1,4,32,54 2012 Draft: Picks 4,24,33,34 2013 Draft: Picks 1, 19, 31, 33.
And these favorable draft positions are exactly why their future is so difficult to predict. Early second round draft picks can turn out to be studs (Chase Budinger, Chandler Parsons, Danny Green), or absolute duds that force the organization to splash a huge chunk of their capital in free agency to stay afloat.
The potential of their former lottery picks are still currently being evaluated as well: I’m a huge fan of Tristan Thompson, and I think Waiters has potential to be a killer off the bench. Thompson actually displayed some skill in addition to his athleticism on the rebounding end, ranking 4th in total rebounding among power forwards with at least 15 mpg. Nearly every other component of his game showed promise through improving as well: he cut his turnover rate, improved his field goal percentage and added some strength to finish around the rim. Oh, and he’s only 22.
Waiters proves to be much harder to read considering he has only accumulated one season of play. However, Dion played very well after the all-star break, showing aggression in getting to the line. He should succeed in a bench role, but forcing him to play starters minutes was and will be a mistake, especially as a rookie.
None of the above really matters, though, if Kyrie Irving continues to play shortened seasons. It’s a shame, really; Kyrie’s game includes a spectacular blend of watchability and on-court success simultaneously, as his combination of three-point shooting and finishing ability is unrivaled for a point guard. But Cleveland’s success going forward directly hinges on his ability to simply play basketball games; Kyrie has played 107 total NBA games in two seasons: a less than ideal number especially for a point guard. There was the foot injury at Duke, and then the finger, shoulder, concussion, hand, and jaw injuries of the past two seasons. This is alarming for Cleveland fans; Kyrie has appeared to be fragile after two seasons of scouting, and while it is possible to take some precautionary measures, sometimes all you can do is keep your fingers crossed.
So that’s all I really have for y’all, at least for the moment. I hope you enjoyed this 3,500 word novel, and that it instilled a new excitement or passion for the NBA if you didn’t already have it. Sorry for the delay in the articles; I’ve been working about 50 hours a week and going to class, but I’d love some feedback in the comments.
I love the NBA
2 All stats per-NBA.com/stats↩
3 However, I don’t watch much Sportscenter too often so maybe I’m misguided↩
4 Sorry for the lousy link, I had read this column a while ago and really liked it, but I’m not paying for ESPN insider for a bunch of aged Hollinger columns↩
5 While writing this piece, I for some reason had a pre-conceived notion that European big men were less injury-prone than American-born centers (Thinking of the Gasols, Nowitzki and a few others). WRONG: Bargnani, Bogut, Varejao, Kaman, Biedrins, and Pekovic are just a few among many who have suffered alarming injuries in multiple seasons. Yikes↩
6 Seriously, Philly has to be KICKING themselves for letting Vucevic go. Doug Collins and his stubbornness to give Nik justified minutes arguably kept Philly from uncapping his full potential. And now after the Bynum injury they’re stuck with Spencer Hawes. Ouch.↩
7 Also: Watch out for Thomas Robinson. He doesn’t exactly click with Houston’s spread the floor and attack the basket system simply because he doesn’t have a reliable jump shot and it creates a spacing issue. However, he should pull his weight in small-ball lineups by crashing the boards at the 5. What the heck was Sacramento thinking giving their lottery pick away half way through his first season?↩
8 I like either option here. Danny Granger coming off the bench is obviously appealing simply because of his defensive performance and scoring ability. However, given the history of his contributions in Indiana, it’s unlikely that Vogel would confine him to bench minutes even if that were the right decision. This is a good problem to have though; Stephenson and Granger are both capable of providing a terrific spark off the bench through their quality two-way play, and anything is an upgrade from this year’s bench. ↩
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