The Rise of a Budding Superstar: Paul George

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The future is bright in Indiana, and rightfully so. They have perhaps one of the best coaches in the league with a dynamic defensive mindset and effective, slow-paced offensive strategy. They locked up a newly nationally recognized defensive post ace in Roy Hibbert who is blessed with good health and looks to be a defensive anchor for years to come. They have a good bench... okay I’m getting carried away; their bench is awful.

However, the most promising component of the Pacers’ success going forward is now widely viewed as having Paul George on the books through the 2014-2015 season. If that’s not good enough, his rookie contract is dirt-cheap costing Indiana only 10.3 million dollars for three years (this year through 2014-2015 assuming they give him the qualifying offer). After that year it will be max contract time, presuming he suffers no significant injuries and his performance doesn’t completely tank. And a max contract is certainly appropriate; George’s breakthrough performance over the last few years has aided his ascendance from a risky mid-1^st round pick with two first names to the NBA’s most improved player and 3^rd team all-NBA this year.

So now we need to discuss his role going forward in what remains of this year’s playoffs, and what exactly he needs to improve to truly make the jump in the following years.

George’s value on the court stems initially from nothing more than his palpable advantage over his backup, Sam Young. Young has been clueless on the floor throughout the playoffs, indicative of the overall incompetence of the Indiana bench. However, George is certainly more valuable than Vogel’s default favor of him over the Pacers’ bench would suggest.  At the very least he presents himself as a viable three-and-D option that can space the floor on offense, and defend any type of guard in the NBA with his length, size, and materialized skill and awareness.

But versatility is key here for Indiana, as George is nowhere near being a consistent and proficient scoring option offensively. This isn’t a knock on George, but more of a harsh reminder of how skilled a player must be offensively to be elite as well as of the time it takes for a player to fully develop. Shot creation, ball handling, post game, spot up shooting, pick and roll game, shooting off the dribble, finishing... etc. etc. all comprise the arsenal of a skilled offensive player, and while George is ascending in the ranks, he still has a bit to go.

Even among this criticism, this problem is a good one to have for George; he certainly has all the tools (athleticism, size, wingspan, court vision) to succeed as a dynamic and clear first offensive option for Indiana going forward. But he’s not going to develop into LeBron James overnight, and Frank Vogel will continue to use him in this year’s playoffs as he has been, by limiting his pick and roll touches and using him more as a pass first offensive option as well as an adequate floor spacer.

As stated above, George has developed into a versatile defensive option, and clearly the most suitable wing defender to match up with LeBron in this series. Yes, LeBron has still asserted his dominance in the series thus far, but George has done a decent job relatively, and is certainly on the short list of players a coach would reluctantly match up against the flying death machine. George is still prone to mental lapses, over committing (most notably the end of game 1), and over helping, but these errors always become magnified when a young player is abruptly tossed in the spotlight. It’ll take a few years, but George should develop into an Iguodala-type wing defender. George has done a terrific job executing Frank Vogel’s suffocating pick and roll defensive system by attaching himself to the ball handler to prevent a switch endangering the Indiana D.

This was a terrific play by both George and Vogel, who had recognized the LeBron-Chalmers screen Miami is so effective, used and forced George to stick with James all the way to the hoop. Similarly, George’s counterpart Sam Young is an atrocious defender, so much that Vogel can only hope for the Indiana defense to tread water during the precious minutes PG sits.

On this play, Young allows the 58-year-old Ray Allen to get all the way to the rim on a pick and roll. This is pathetic; Young didn’t even have the awareness to prevent Allen from using the screen in the first place. This lineup actually did feature Paul George on the floor, but if Young can’t stop Ray Allen I don’t see how he could stagger LeBron.

So it’s clear that PG has value defensively, but how exactly is he integrated into Indiana’s offense, and how effective is he? George’s shots result mostly from the pick and roll and transition, via synergy. Transition baskets are ideal for someone with his size, athleticism, and finishing ability, but thrusting George into an abundance of pick and rolls is risky because of his shaky ball handling. This is why Vogel temporarily banned George from splitting pick and rolls earlier this season because of his turnover vulnerability.

This is why it’s best for him to be more of a second offensive option for now, behind West and Hibbert. There’s no harm in this; he can certainly get some transition points even against Miami, and is a terrific at scoring off of a back door cut. He’ll also serve well as a spot up shooter, and despite his drastic decline in 3pt% through the playoffs, which likely won’t sustain.

Another crucial element to George’s offensive game is his passing ability, which can be unleashed in both half court and transition offenses. George is terrific at making a drop pass when Miami blitzes him in the pick and roll as shown below.

It would almost be smarter for Miami to not blitz the pick and roll when George is designated as the primary ball handler because he is so proficient at threading the needle on these passes.

George certainly has to improve if he wants to be the Pacers’ consistent number one option, and if he hopes to lead this team to a championship. The Heat will be the favorite for as long as they have LeBron, and George needs to prove he can consistently lead his team to victory to climb to the top. George’s pick and roll game looks okay on the surface, but it’s clear to see how turnover prone he is when he starts aggressively attacking the basket.

George’s ball handling needs significant work, but this should be no problem. He’s only 23 years old, and has plenty of time to work on his game. Him and Hibbert together should pull Indiana into Eastern Conference contenders year after year, and if he can create offense like he did last night in this clip...

Watch out.

Do the Pacers actually have a chance to beat Miami?

The 2013 Eastern Conference Finals features two teams with completely different backgrounds. The much-publicized Miami Heat will make their third consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearance, after reeling off 8 wins in 9 playoff games with minimal competition sans a couple games against Chicago. On the other hand, the superstar-less Pacers have simply chugged along all season, taking care of business in their first two rounds and now sit in a decent position to knock off the defending champions and make their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000.

However, amid the unskillful and under-analyzed debates as to whether Indiana actually does have a chance against Miami (ESPN First Take anyone?), the question actually presents itself as an intriguing possibility that the Pacers do, in fact, match up favorably to beat Miami. However if that were to take place, Indiana is going to need terrific play from its post players, a handicapped version of Dwyane Wade, and spectacular ball security on offense.

Get the Ball in the Post

It’s more than clear to see that the match up of Indiana’s starting five to Miami’s starting five would, on paper at least, seem to favor an Indiana team which is outscoring opponents in the playoffs by a whopping 16.4 points per 100 possessions. A Miami starting lineup of Chalmers-Wade-James-Haslem-Bosh would be a tad undersized in the post against two proficient post players in Roy Hibbert and David West. However, to take advantage of that, Indiana has to get the ball inside. This means simply feeding West and Hibbert repetitively to continuously wear down the Miami post. Yes, they will miss a few shots, but Indiana has a clear advantage here, and Frank Vogel has the opportunity to be tremendously creative in his offense by running the offense through West in the High post, or having Hibbert stake out his real estate on the left block. This one-two punch is invaluable to Indiana’s chances of success in this series, and Indiana simply has to get the ball in the post and let their bigs go to work.

Indiana has performed very well against their opponents when West and Hibbert have shared the floor in the playoffs per NBA.com; scoring 106.3 points per 100 possessions, a number that would rank 7^th in the league in the regular season, and much higher than the Pacers overall regular season total. Both players are so versatile; West can create from the elbow off the dribble, from a jumpshot, or finding the open man on a cut as shown here:

And don’t even think about fronting him without help on the weak side, as he’ll brutalize any opponent attempting to challenge him below the rim as he does here:

Hibbert is also an excellent playmaker, and has developed much-needed strength and touch around the rim, as he attacks Tyson Chandler here (notice the left hand):

The Indiana big men are going to have to get their touches for the Pacers to have a chance against Miami; this will wear down the Miami front line, force the Heat perimeter defenders to help in the post, and allow these skilled passers to find the open man along the perimeter for a clean three-point look. The main concern of mine involves Indiana’s abundance of live-ball turnovers, which goes hand-in-hand with the next piece of their game plan on which their success will hinge.

Eliminating Live Ball Turnovers

Perhaps even more concerning than Indiana’s semi-reluctance to consistently attack the post (their offense should be built around the post in my opinion, a la Memphis) is their overwhelming abundance of live-ball turnovers. The Pacers offense turns the ball over constantly, and in no specific or consistent manner either. The Indiana regular season offense would have been much more effective if they didn’t have the 2^nd highest turnover ratio (turnovers per 100 possessions) in the league. Even more discouraging is their turnover ratio in the playoffs: 17.3, a number that would place last in the league by a very large margin in the regular season.

As I stated above, the most frustrating theme of these turnovers is the lack of consistency. Dropped balls, tipped passes, and careless dribbling from nearly every player have all contributed to the Pacers’ NBA highest playoff turnover rate. Indiana simply HAS to clean this up to have a chance in this series; Miami leads the league in points scored per possession in transition, and any live-ball turnover directly translates to transition baskets for Miami. Lance Stephenson and Paul George actually match up decently in transition defense against dominant Miami finishers in LeBron and Wade, but no team has the stamina to keep up in transition if they turn the ball over 18 times a game.

This seems mainly like an issue of discipline; Vogel has to ensure that his players are taking care of the ball on every single possession. So many of Indiana’s turnovers offensively have resulted from bobbled balls, careless dribbling, or miscommunication on passes. Yes the New York defense is known for gambling, and plenty of Indiana’s turnovers have come from aggressive gambles on New York’s part, but live ball turnovers will kill the Pacers in this series, and they have to squeeze the orange on offense.

Miscellaneous Breaks

Every team has to have luck to win almost any series in the playoffs, at least a little bit, and Indiana will need more than a little bit to knock off Miami in this one. Their best shot at good luck concerns the Dwyane Wade “injury”; the extremity of Wade’s injury is uncertain, however it’s relatively clear that Wade hasn’t been playing at 100% for the past few games. His knee is certainly a concern, and in a recent article Wade was described as having been dealing with a knee injury since March,, missing games five separate times because of it. Wade has played only 33 minutes per game in this year’s playoffs, compared to his average from previous years around 40. This is a little bit misconstrued because of his bench time in 4^th quarter blowouts early in the playoffs, but if Wade spends substantially fewer minutes on the floor, the Heat are at that much more of a disadvantage offensively and defensively.

Another small matchup detail to watch involves Roy Hibbert Defensively on Chris Bosh. Miami will most likely pull Bosh further away from the basket, in order to draw Hibbert out of the lane so as to attack the paint and prevent Indiana from over-helping.  Indiana might switch to some type of match up zone defensively to counterattack; Hibbert anchors that league-leading Indiana defense, but to have him defending on the perimeter almost nullifies his defensive advantages.

Lastly, Indiana has to survive with its bench units on the floor. Indiana’s bench is spectacularly bad again, and their offense completely collapses when Tyler Hansbrough, Sam Young, and Ian Mahinmi are on the floor, and the Pacers will need big minutes from their starters to survive, especially considering LeBron can play all 48 minutes if he absolutely needs to.

It should come as no surprise that the Heat are good, very good. Their defense is spectacular, they force turnovers, get easy baskets, spread out the defense, and attack the lane. The Pacers will need nearly flawless play from their starting five to have a shot in this series, and absolutely have to eliminate careless turnovers to avoid a beating. Indiana is a very good team, but Miami is just too good in my opinion; I don’t see Indiana holding onto the ball well enough in this series to secure a victory: I’ll take Miami in 6 games.

Breaking Down OKC in Game 4

If I were to tell you that Scott Brooks was going to get terrific performances from both Serge Ibaka and Kevin Martin before Game 4, you would most likely predict that the Thunder would have slithered out of Memphis with the series tied at 2-2. Even more surprising than OKC actually getting help from its supporting cast was Kevin Durant’s dreadful play down the stretch. Durant was just 2 for 12 in the 4^th quarter and overtime resulting in a bloody shot chart shown below.

However it’s clearly unfair to cast all of the blame on Durant’s shoulders, as it’s terribly unjustified to expect him to set up the offense and score the basketball, even for him. Brooks is used to tossing the ball into the hands of his star players and letting them outmaneuver savvy defenses with their craftiness and overwhelming athleticism. This is very unfortunate for OKC, as Brooks is forced to scramble for answers as to how to operate a disabled offense using only one superstar instead of two. This leads to a lofty number of “broken” possessions; either Durant can’t free himself to get the ball, or he does get the ball 35 feet from the basket resulting in a off balance mid-range jumper over 2 defenders. Durant is such a terrific player that this usually doesn’t even faze him, but it’s impossible to expect him to lift such a one-dimensional offense to even middling efficiency.

This is why OKC collapsed on Monday night, as Durant couldn’t keep his head above the water even with strong support from his teammates. Brooks ran KD off of screens to each side of the court, but right as he caught the ball to face the basket, he was overloaded with a crowd of Memphis defenders as shown here.

And here.

It’s impossible to have an efficient offense when the defense can key in one scorer, which is why the key component to the solution (albeit it’s probably too late for a comeback now) most likely lies within the lineup data and distribution of minutes. First off, Reggie Jackson has done a terrific job this series, especially considering his situation being a 2^nd year player with nearly no playoff experience. He’s made the mistakes expected, but has pretty consistently provided a spark off the bench and created some easy transition baskets for OKC. His defense has been less than great at times, but it’s only a slight drop-off from Westbrook who is prone to gambles and falling out of line on defensive rotations. Ibaka has also played tremendously in this series, in my opinion. Despite having a rough game 3 offensively, he has been doing a terrific job on Zach Randolph, added 17 points in game 4, and rebounded surprisingly well. Even Martin came out to play with a respectable performance.

The most critical development in this series, or even the entire playoffs for OKC, as I had written earlier, is simply the minute allotment for the Thunder big men, specifically Nick Collison. Collison is a terrific two-way player for OKC, and while he’s not as good of a matchup against Randolph or Gasol as is Perkins or Ibaka, his offense more than makes up for it. As shown here, the two-man game between Collison and Martin is a beautiful liberator from the staleness of the Thunder offense without Durant on the floor. 

So when diving into the lineup data, it’s relatively obvious to link the correlation of OKC’s success to Nick Collison being on the floor. Out of all Thunder players, Collison has the highest defensive rating on the team in the playoffs (disregarding Russell Westbrook’s defensive rating in 2 games (smaller sample size)), as well as an offensive rating that is much higher than their playoff average.

This is why Scott Brooks’ minute allowance to Nick Collison is so befuddling. Collison does foul more than what is ideal, and can sometimes get pushed around in the post, but he’s certainly the best two way big man OKC has here, and the offense thrives with him on the floor. He is certainly the best passing big man on the team, is above average in the pick and roll, and most importantly Memphis can’t completely ignore him no matter where he stands on the floor like they can with Perkins, and I would really like to see Collison get up around the 22-24 minute range next game.

Another crucial development moving forward is the minute allotment of guards, specifically Reggie Jackson, Derek Fisher, Kevin Martin, and Thabo Sefolosha. Durant is obviously going to get around 42-43 minutes, per game, but the minute distribution for the remaining players has fluctuated greatly in Westbrook’s absence.

So now the question Scott Brooks faces is how to effectively manage the strengths and weaknesses of each player. None of the guards listed above are terrific two-way players other than Thabo Sefolosha; Jackson and Fisher are both suspect defensively, and Martin might as well just be a traffic cone out there. However, late in games, the Thunder have shown aggression as of late, risking defensive liability for hopes of improved offensive efficiency by playing smaller lineups, and taking a chance with double teams on defense.
This isn’t always the way to go, but it has worked decently so far, which makes it even more confusing that Brooks went away from it Monday night. After Collison fouled out late in the 4^th quarter, Brooks went with Perkins over a hot Martin who had already been shooting well earlier in the game. This self-destruction technique was part of the downfall for the Thunder in game 4. Against a skilled defense such as Memphis, OKC simply needs more options to achieve some diversity and lessen the load on KD. After running a pin-down screen to get Durant the ball on the wing, a subtle pin-down screen by Ibaka to free Martin in the opposite corner would create a terrific look for a great shooter after a skip pass from Durant. This would also most likely keep Memphis on their heels and perhaps allow a smidgen more room for him to drive the lane.

One last thing I noticed was the use of Jackson and Fisher on the floor simultaneously. This is redundant in my opinion; allowing either player to take the ball up the floor would be perfectly suitable, which would then allow the player off the ball to be substituted for either Martin or Sefolosha, both of which would be an upgrade over a two point guard lineup.

Unfortunately for Thunder fans, this doesn’t really matter. The series is most likely over by now, and even considering how well (compared to his job in previous games) Scott Brooks managed the lineups in game 4, Memphis still came out victorious. OKC would have to play near perfect basketball to reel off 3 straight, and if the Grizzlies can figure out how to exploit the mismatch they have against the small Thunder lineups offensively (as I suspect Hollins will), you can forget about it.

This Memphis team is legit, and stay tuned for another article as to why I think Memphis has a legit chance to knock off Miami this year.

What if Derrick Rose does come back?

It has been one of the main storylines through NBA media this entire year. When will Derrick Rose come back, how good will he be when he comes back, and if he is cleared to play, why hasn’t he come back yet? Rose has been participating in 5-on-5 workouts and practices since the All-Star break, and has been cleared to play for quite some time, so now the only question is not whether he’s ready physically, but if he’s ready mentally.

We have now come upon game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and the Bulls are actually in a somewhat favorable position to knock off the defending champions after stealing game 1 in Miami. The odds are still slim for Chicago, yet rumors around the league claim that Derrick Rose may suit up in game 3, presenting a very compelling predicament for Tom Thibodeau. This idea is still very uncertain, and because Rose has been cleared to play for about two months it makes it even harder to predict his added value to Chicago... But I’ll try to anyway.

In the 2011 playoffs, Rose registered an offensive rating of 103.0 compared to a defensive rating of 98.0 (points per 100 possessions while he was on the floor). This is terrific, however during the 2011-2012 regular season his net rating was even more outstanding with an offensive rating of 107.6 and a defensive rating of 97.0. These numbers would have ranked 2^nd and 4^th in the league respectively, so his added value to the team is overwhelmingly clear.

However, statistics are somewhat expendable in this situation given the circumstances. Intangibles are much more important; predicting a player’s production when coming back from injury can not be simply referenced from previous statistics due to the uncertainty of their current physical condition. It’s always unclear how long a player will take to regain full strength after a career threatening injury like this one. Most players need time to A) re-adjust to the speed of the NBA game and B) work back into their correct lineup spot after getting back in prime physical shape.

However, Rose’s comeback situation is particularly unique, simply because he is allegedly already in prime physical shape. Doctors have cleared him to play long enough by now to assume that if he has truly been participating in full contact drills for an extended period of time, he should have no unusual limits as to what type of contact and movement he could subject his knee. Rose is clearly a player whose success is dependent on the health and ability of his body. If he is not fully capable of utilizing all of his athletic ability, then it really is a risk to expect a strong performance from him.

The lineup changes are what to watch for if Rose comes back, as it is more than likely that he would take the starting role from Nate Robinson. Nate is accustomed to coming off the bench to stimulate the offense, and if the Bulls can be graced with even more good health, a Rose-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah starting lineup is very promising defensively and offensively. Chicago has simply been sapped of good heath as of late, but having players such as Robinson, Belinelli, Heinrich, Mohammed, and Gibson coming off the bench would be very helpful when trying to knock off this Miami team if they can somehow get so lucky.

Robinson is the only player in the starting five who has been consistently helpful offensively during the postseason, but his defense is so flammable it would be much more suitable to have him coming off the bench to face Miami bench units. If Rose were to come back it would seem he would be able to take the offensive load from Nate, while at the same time providing better defense. Noah, Deng, and Butler are all terrific two-way players, and if the Bulls can somehow find some way to get all of these guys healthy they should be in good shape. I don’t expect any significant chemistry issues with this team, as Rose has been traveling with this team nearly all season and has played with roughly the same unit for 5 years. However, what will be interesting to see is how the offense changes with Rose in the system. It would be expected that he would accumulate a very high usage rate, so most likely Tom Thibodeau would revert (at least a little) to last year’s offense.

Chicago is capable of defending Miami very well, at least compared to the rest of the league (last night was an outlier), and if Rose can come back in full strength and lead the team, this series becomes much more intriguing. It’s not likely that Chicago could beat the Heat, but I wouldn’t put it past Tom Thibodeau, and even if they can’t it would be nice to see a team expose Miami’s limitations. The verdict is basically this: Rose adds value no matter what if he comes back given he is in condition to play, however how much value he adds is questionable and is subject to whether he will instantaneously assimilate into the Chicago offense on the run.

Also: side-note. I’m not one to dismantle Rose for making the decision to sit all season; yes, some players are quicker at returning from injuries, but this really is a career-threatening injury, and if he’s not mentally ready to come back I can’t blame him. I would love to see him play sooner than later, but he’s making a living through a career that could make it difficult for him to even walk in 30 years. So give the guy a break, and let him make his own decisions. I’m sure that when he comes back it will have been worth the wait.

Game 2 Thoughts

After wins by the Pacers and Thunder in game 1 of their respective series, their opponents came roaring back Tuesday to tie the series at 1 game apiece. Here are a few thoughts on how teams executed or failed to execute their game plan in their respective games.

MEM-OKC

In game 2 Tuesday night, the Memphis Grizzlies controlled the tempo of the game in Oklahoma City to hold off the Thunder. In what may have been Mike Conley’s best game of the playoffs, the Grizzlies continued to do what they had been doing all year: repeatedly pounding the ball into their post players to create healthy and successful looks for their offense. Randolph and Gasol combined in this game for a total of 85 minutes played (!), and if these bigs can continue to play productive extended minutes for Memphis, Scott Brooks is going to have to get some productive minutes from his big men defensively to combat this 1-2 punch. Gasol and Randolph flat out dominated Perkins, Ibaka, Collison, and Thabeet in game 2, combining for 39 points on 25 shots with only 2 turnovers.

If Memphis continues to grind out wins in this fashion they won’t be beat by anyone; they controlled the tempo, got good looks, and didn’t turn the ball over. They even held OKC to only 7 transition points, a critical development going forward in this series. Defensively, if OKC wants to have a chance they’re going to have to get more production out of their big men. This is mainly Collison, Ibaka, and Perkins; to call Scott Brooks’ decision to play Hasheem Thabeet a total of 13 minutes confusing would be an understatement.

Randolph had Ibaka’s number Tuesday night, baiting him into loose ball fouls on rebounds, getting good post position, and getting to the line often. Randolph was a crucial component of Ibaka getting into foul trouble with 5 fouls, and this matchup really could be the matchup that decides the series.

However, Memphis’ game changer in game 2 turned out to be Mike Conley. Conley, who is usually a very mediocre offensive point guard had 26 points on 50% shooting as well as 9 assists, 10 rebounds, and some clutch buckets at the end to seal the game for Memphis. This was very unexpected, and it would be unfair to expect this production coming out of him going forward, but it really was a masterful performance. Conley is perfectly capable of getting into the lane and creating offense for other teammates, but he does have trouble finishing around the rim, so again, his success depends somewhat on the defensive performance of OKC’s big men.

For the Thunder, again the key to watch is the allotment of minutes to one-dimensional players. Kevin Martin specifically has been very hit or miss this postseason, and given his dreadful all around defensive performance, it’ll be interesting to see how long Scott Brooks keeps him on the floor. When he’s hot and can actually space the floor, his offensive value far outweighs his defensive deficiencies. However, when he shoots like he did Tuesday, Thabo Sefolosha is a far better alternative. Sefelosha doesn’t space the floor like K-Mart can, but he is a passable three-point shooter, his defense is borderline elite, and he is a very underrated passer.

If the Thunder are to have a chance in this series, they must find a decent wingman scorer for Kevin Durant, scrape together some easy transition points by pushing the tempo on Memphis, and get some better defensive production out of their big men.

IND-NY

The Knicks benefitted from a spectacular offensive performance on Tuesday, after Carmelo Anthony had finally appeared to find his jumpshot. Putbacks, offensive rebounds, and even some spectacular dunks were part of the Knicks’ offensive arsenal in this beat down, and Indiana has a lot of work to do in tweaking their defense to contain this Knicks offense.

The problem, however, was the abundance of turnovers committed by the Pacers; Indiana turned it over 21 times, more of these careless turnovers than forced by the Knicks defense. There’s no hope for the Pacers’ offense if it plays this carelessly; they actually got some decent looks on plays in which they didn’t turn the ball over by running some very meticulous pick and rolls and back cuts to the basket.

One thing the Knicks did do very well was containing the Pacers big men. David west was constantly being shoved around on the block, and was swarmed with defenders every time he touched the ball. He was double-teamed, fronted, and swiped at which really seemed to get him out of his comfort zone. He turned the ball over twice, and only scored 13 points. Hibbert didn’t fare well either with only 6 points on 7 shots.

This development is going to be the key to this series; if New York can continue to collapse and attack the Pacers bigs before they have a chance to get into a rhythm I don’t think Indiana’s offense will be able to survive. New York doesn’t have nearly the defensive talent that Indiana does, but if they can continue to stifle these post players just enough, they can most likely rely on their outstanding offense to carry them to victory.

This offense certainly deserves some recognition, especially against this Pacers defense. Indiana had the number one defense in the league during the regular season, and New York was able to get into the lane, find open shooters, and even took advantage of the Pacers on the offensive boards. Vogel has Indiana playing very conservative on defense, as Hibbert drops deep into the lane on this Pablo Prigioni pick and roll.

Hibbert drops deep into the lane to contain every pick and roll New York throws at him simply to protect the basket, even on good shooters like Prigioni and Anthony. This conservative strategy surrenders a good shot while protecting a great one (shot at the rim), but there has to be some kind of balance, and dropping this deep into the lane is going to yield some easy looks for New York going forward.

Another noteworthy topic regarding this series is the bench play; Indiana’s bench has severely underperformed, really for the past two seasons. Vogel has been able to play Hibbert more minutes as of late (36 on Tuesday), which is a very encouraging sign, but even the 12 minutes he sits is disastrous for Indiana. Ian Mahinmi brings nearly nothing to the table; he has terrible hands, is a weak defensive player, and has no idea how to pass. D.J. Augustine has shown promise off the bench for the Pacers, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to New York’s bench with J.R. Smith, Jason Kidd, and Kenyon Martin.

I picked Indiana to win this series, and despite New York’s impressive performance last night I still stick with my decision. Indiana is too talented on both sides of the ball, and as long as they get decent production off the bench as well as utilize their advantages in the post they should hold on and win this series.

Finding the Correct Lineup Balance for OKC

The Grizzlies-Thunder western conference semifinal matchup is full of attractive storylines. Can Kevin Durant continue to carry the Thunder through the smothering Memphis defense? Can Marc Gasol prove that he’s an true superstar and carry his team to victory? Will the absence of Russell Westbrook haunt the impoverished Oklahoma City offense even more as the playoff atmosphere intensifies?

However, one of the more subtle questions comes regarding the Thunder rotation decisions made by Scott Brooks. Against what is most likely the most formidable frontcourt in the league in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, OKC will look to find a suitable combination of big men to counterattack the Grizzlies’ skilled post players. Each of the Thunder bigs displays clear and diverse strengths and weaknesses, and minimizing these weaknesses and slowing down Memphis in the post is going to be the crucial development in this series.

In game 1 on Sunday, Scott Brooks experimented with a small ball lineup (a lineup with Durant at the 4) for only 7 of the 48 total minutes. This decision of course was decided mainly by the Memphis’ lineups; Durant has no chance of banging with Randolph or Gasol in the post, thus two of the Thunder bigs (Collison, Ibaka, Perkins, and sometimes Thabeet) are required to be on the floor almost all the time.  Not only this, but Memphis is blessed enough to have both of their bigs healthy enough to play extended minutes in the playoffs; Randolph and Gasol are averaging over 70 minutes combined in the 7 playoff games thus far.

Thus the main concern for Scott Brooks now in dealing with this issue becomes the lineup combinations for the Thunder, and nitpicking how many minutes are allotted to each arrangement. The challenge comes now in assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each Thunder post player. Collison is mainly thrown into the mix when Kevin Martin is on the floor; OKC can run the two-man game with the Collison-Martin combo from the horns offense with a dribble handoff. The Collison-Ibaka combination is effective offensively as Collison can stay up top to run a pick and roll and Ibaka can stay down low to crash the boards, but not so much effective defensively against Memphis as neither of them are ideal matchups against Gasol. The Ibaka-Perkins combination is probably the strongest defensively, but presents little to nothing offensively as Ibaka can’t pass or set screens, and Perkins can’t (or rather shouldn’t) shoot anywhere on the floor.

So what’s the most effective combo, and how should minutes be allotted?

Despite what some fans may think, Kendrick Perkins is actually a very good defender; there’s a reason he plays as much as he does, and it’s certainly not because of his offense. Perkins actually rated 20^th of all players in defensive points per possession per mysynergysports.com, and even though defense is wildly subjective, Perkins’ value is certainly evident. His defensive numbers against post ups specifically are more modest, but Perk is the only Thunder player with enough strength and skill to effectively match up with Gasol. He definitely doesn’t help on offense, but he does set some jarring screens, and doesn’t make ‘that many’ mistakes offensively. Perkins will certainly see a minutes boost in this series given the matchup, and rightly so; he can body up Memphis’ best player better than anyone else, and doesn’t command a double team when Gasol gets the ball on the block.

Ibaka presents an interesting match up against Zach Randolph. Ibaka is heralded as a terrific defender because of his quantity of blocked shots, but isn’t quite as good perhaps as people would think. However, this matchup is a good one for him; Ibaka has the most trouble with floor spacing 4s, but Randolph is strictly a post player, and Ibaka’s post defense has improved mightily this year. He played spectacular defense in game 1 against Randolph; after allowing a couple buckets in the first quarter, Ibaka held his own against Randolph in the post; holding him to 3-9 shooting including this crucial block in the fourth quarter. 

The most important thing to consider in Ibaka’s developed game however, is his added strength; Ibaka is deceptively strong, and not only had the strength to halter Randolph’s post ups, but also to keep him off the offensive boards. Z-Bo only had 2 offensive rebounds all game, much lower than his 4.2/game average.

The defensive matchup for Ibaka is favorable against Randolph in the post, however the issue is with the offensive game plan; he can’t catch the ball and has no idea how to pass in traffic which eliminates him from being a threat in the pick and roll or working from a post up. His only offensive strengths are rebounding and spacing the floor with the midrange jumper, and if he continues to shoot like he did today he may get yanked earlier in the contest for Collison.

This is the most intriguing predicament for Scott Brooks, which is the minute allotment to Nick Collison. Collison’s minutes have fluctuated greatly thus far in the playoffs, and it will continue to be that way until Brooks can find a consistent balance between offense and defense. Collison is going to be much needed for the Thunder on offense for his passing against a stingy Memphis defense, but facing two stud post players on defense may not be so favorable. Bench units featuring Collison are outscoring any other such lineups on the team recording 115.7 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, a number that would even top the Heat’s regular season league leading offense. This is what is so interesting about lineups with Collison; most lineups featuring him have been small ball lineups with Durant at the 4, however against Memphis, lineups featuring Collison will most likely feature Ibaka/Perkins as well. Collison is a terrific passer on the offensive end, but defensively can get bullied by Randolph, and fatigues much quicker than the other two Thunder bigs.

Against a spectacular Memphis team, finding the balance between offensive and defensive performance is critical for the Thunder to win this series, and Scott Brooks will have his hands full against these skilled Memphis bigs.

Friday Playoff Primer

The first few games of the first round of the NBA playoffs started off predictable and rather unentertaining, with 6 of the 8 total series’ starting with a team compiling a 3-0 or 3-1 lead. It had initially appeared that basketball fanatics would have to wait until the future rounds for truly competitive basketball.

The tide has turned however, after two commanding first round sweeps by the Spurs and Heat, 4 playoff hopefuls now have their backs against the wall in game 6, with the most series going 6 games since 2003 had 7. After last night’s near epic comeback in Oakland, and an exciting finish in Chicago, we now turn our attention toward 4 juicy game 6 matchups on Friday night. Here is what each desperate team needs to fix to force a game 7 and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Boston Celtics

After three straight relative blowouts, Boston has crept back into this series with a smothering defense and an offense barely keeping their head above the water, entrusting entirely too much on the aged Celtic talent to grind out points in half court situations. The Celtics are a very conservative, defensive minded team, and will employ this attitude on both sides of the ball, even if it seems like it may not be the best approach. Boston has stymied the Knicks’ unimaginative and one dimensional offense in both wins and losses, holding them to 96.3 points per 100 possessions, a number that would even trump Indiana for the league’s most proficient defense. Brandon Bass has done a surprisingly terrific job guarding Carmelo Anthony, and Doc Rivers has quickly taken of Anthony’s reluctance to pass by overloading the strong side of the floor when he has the ball as shown here.

Notice how 4 Boston defenders man the paint here, despite 2 very proficient 3 point shooters stand outside the arc.

Because of this wise defensive tactic, Anthony is shooting under 40% for the series, and unless New York can mix up the offense and identify more scoring options, this will continue to be a poor offensive team performance.

The issues for Boston, however, are not defensively, but offensively. The Celtics lack the offensive talent to consistently get into the paint to create offense; Jeff Green is really the only consistent penetrator, and even Mike Woodson is starting to recognize this by directing his drives to the left. Boston’s offense is suffering from a severe lack of versatility; despite getting shots from different players, the Celtics are living and dying by the mid range jumper, absolutely not a recipe for success, and are last out of all 16 playoff teams in shots attempted in the restricted area.

This is going to create a heavy burden for Pierce and Garnett; the two future hall-of-famers are already logging over 80 minutes per game combined in their two wins, and this certainly has to be taking a toll on the Celtics performance.  To win this series, Boston must continue to suffocate the New York offense and ride on the shoulders of these future hall-of-famers to create shots and orchestrate the defense.

Atlanta Hawks

In what may be the most enigmatic series of the entire first round, the home team has won every game thus far, and the Hawks look to protect their home court against Indiana tonight. If Indiana could simply play their starting 5 for a whole 48 minutes, this series may be over in 4 games; the Pacers starting five has been lighting up Atlanta for the series, outscoring them by 22.3 points per 100 possessions. However, this is not possible; Roy Hibbert can barely make it up and down the floor without taking a breather, and David West isn’t as young as he once was. The Pacers defense is sitting well below it’s league leading regular season mark, albeit still very good, however their offense has been making/breaking this team’s ability to function.

Credit is due, however, to Larry Drew; after being lit up nearly singlehandedly by Paul George in games 1 and 2, Drew went with a bigger starting lineup, moving Kyle Korver to the bench and assigning Josh Smith to guard George. This yielded terrific results, after scoring 50 points in the first two games, George shot under 40% for games 3 and 4.

This will have to continue for the Hawks to have a shot in game 6, along with better shot selection from Josh Smith (no, really), and a better performance from Jeff Teague who has played very average this series. 

Houston Rockets

The Rockets join the likes of Boston among teams attempting to make history; it’s not likely for either two teams to pull off the 0-3 comeback, but probably more-so for Houston given their offensive proficiency and Oklahoma City’s overall defensive atrociousness. The Rockets small ball lineups have roasted OKC as of late, and confused OKC in transition defense through the use of strategic matchups.

However it would be a stretch for Houston to keep up this hot shooting , even by their standards, especially considering the probable upcoming defensive adjustments to be implemented by Scott Brooks.

This Houston team is no joke though; they have an abundance of deep shooters, and can basically pinpoint the worst OKC defender to attack (usually Kevin Martin or Derek Fisher), and attack him off the dribble forcing the defense to collapse and opening up perimeter shots for the offense. Patrick Beverly, Aaron Brooks, Chandler Parsons, and James Harden are all three-point threats who can also attack off the dribble, and it remains to be seen how OKC will counter this offensive threat.

The Thunder have had a multitude of defensive mishaps in this series: failing to match up in transition, miscommunication in the pick and roll and dribble handoff, and help defense that fails to rotate. This should clean up for game 6, but the Thunder have a lot of work to do in future rounds if they expect to be a true competitor. And if it doesn’t clean up, Houston has a good chance to win this series.

Los Angeles Clippers

In what may be the most exciting series in all of the playoffs, the Clippers are surprisingly the ones with their backs to the wall in game 6. NBA media had expected this to be the series that goes full 7 games as it did last year, however, a Blake Griffin that is not a true 100% will be very concerning for LA going forward. The Clippers will have to go on the road to win this one in Memphis and if they don’t find an answer to the Grizzlies frontcourt attack, this game might not even be close.

For some obscure reason, Vinny Del Negro hasn’t made the conclusion that double teaming either of Memphis’ starting bigs is anything but optional given their LA's frontcourt deficiencies; Gasol and Randolph have lit up the Clippers while sharing the floor, outscoring LA by 13.5 points per 100 possessions. A healthy Blake is key for LA, not only offensively but defensively as well. Griffin actually matches up decently well with Randolph on the block, especially by LA’s standards, and his passing is a key element to the Clippers half court offense. LA has also been flammable defensively this series, which is surprising to say the least  considering the slow paced and tightly packed Memphis offense they’re facing.

Winning without a healthy Blake looks like a long shot for the Clippers now, even with Chris Paul, and Vinny Del Negro will have to scramble for an acceptable 5 man lineup to compete with Memphis in game 6.

Rookie of the Year Thoughts and Future Talent of the NBA

Congratulations to Rookie of the Year winner Damian Lillard, who surprised most NBA analysts last year, by trumping Anthony Davis’ proficient, yet shortened season. Lillard has created an admirable and flashy image for himself through highlight reel 3 pointers and acrobatic layups. Lillard isn’t quite as good as the Sportscenter top 10 suggests and still has plenty to work on defensively, but there’s no arguing he was a crucial element to the initial success of the Trail Blazers and his award is well deserved. Here’s a brief overview of some of the future talent of the NBA. 

Damian Lillard

Lillard is first to be discussed; he won the Rookie of the Year award unanimously in the voting, and he almost carried his team to a playoff spot save the very end of the season. He has terrific quickness and surprisingly good court vision for a rookie with a quality assist rate and 6.5 assists/game. In addition, Lillard shot very well from the perimeter despite the deeper NBA three point line, shooting 37.2% from deep on a very generous 6.2 attempts per game.

This is terrific for him going forward; Lillard projects to have tremendous offensive skill if he can continue to improve year by year. He possesses outstanding quickness and utilizes this on pick and rolls and is surprisingly effective in isolations.  Lillard projects to be a terrific pick and roll guard; he can shoot over the top at a decent clip, as well as find the open man when the defense closes up.

However, I expect Lillard to be good, not great. He isn’t big at all, and while he will most likely put on some size between now and year 3 or 4, I don’t think he’ll ever be able to truly match up with bigger guards such as John Wall, Russell Westbrook or Derrick Rose when bodied up on the block. The size impediment will affect him on the offensive end as well; Lillard finished well below average at the rim this year, and unless he adds some much needed strength, that won’t change, as he is not a spectacular athlete.

Moreover, the most concerning component of Lillard’s game is his miserable defense. Lillard was continually bullied by larger guards in isolation plays, and simply doesn’t possess the strength to match up with bigger guards. He was even lousier defending pick and rolls, regularly playing out of position and making rotation errors as well as exuding fluctuating effort.

This will all certainly improve, as it does for most rookies, and Lillard is already sitting pretty with a skilled offensive arsenal and a low turnover rate that will only get better. It will be interesting to monitor his progress and examine how he compares to the abundance of exceptional NBA point guards.

Anthony Davis

Hello future superstar. Davis doesn’t have nearly as sexy of a game as Lillard does which may contribute to his lack of first place votes, but he certainly possesses more potential, and should continue to develop into one of the best bigs in the NBA. Some statistics (i.e. field goal %, assists, fouls) for most rookies can be deceiving as they will usually improve year by year for the first few years, however, looking at Davis it is clear that he possesses the physical tools to make an impact on both ends for the years to come. Davis has soft hands, long arms, and a terrific leaping ability to contest shots and finish at the rim. He scored 56% of the time as a roll man on the pick and roll, using his terrific hands to gather the ball in the lane and finish 71% of his shots at the rim.

Defensively, Davis is suspect right now because of his current build; however, once he learns proper rotations on defense and adds some lower body strength he should be very effective defending post ups and pick and rolls. He has a maddening habit of leaving his feet on pump fakes by mediocre jump shooters, but learning NBA defense takes years to learn, especially for bigs, and Davis has all the tools to be an elite stopper.

Bradley Beal

Beal opened his rookie campaign with a very underwhelming performance, shooting under 40% for the first 3 months of the season. He caught fire late however, and settled out his overall field goal percentage to 41%. Beal settled for too many long jumpers, a common blunder for many NBA rookies still gathering the concept of floor spacing in the league, which weighted down his overall FG%.

As expected, he caught fire right around the time John Wall returned from injury, and his ability to space the floor for Wall to work is vital for the Wizards offense going forward. Beal shot a respectable 38% from 3 on a good number of attempts, and if he can provide decent perimeter defense for Washington he will fit into Randy Wittman’s system nicely.

Beal’s offense came mainly through spot-ups and off screens, but true three-and-D type players aren’t as common as it may seem in the NBA, and if Beal can serve as a floor spacer, wing defender, and bench unit facilitator he will be an important piece for Washington moving forward.

Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond deserves to receive a small amount of praise here; despite missing 32 games due to a stress fracture and a sprained ankle. He performed spectacularly well in the limited minutes he actually saw the court, dominating the boards on both sides of the ball.

Drummond played very average defense by Detroit’s standards, and one can only wonder if his rebounding, shooting, and defensive numbers would have sustained themselves in a larger amount of minutes. Unfortunately, Lawrence Frank (coaching alert!) limited Drummond’s minutes to 20 per night despite performing much better with him on the court on both sides of the ball.

Drummond looks to be developing into a very good center moving forward, and should develop into a superstar center provided his health doesn’t hinder his ability to perform.