Season Preview No. 2: Breakout players, awards, stating the obvious, etc.

Breakout players 

One of my favorite things to do before the season starts is predict who will have a breakout year. It’s always fun to see guys like Paul George and James Harden really excel after a few years of growing pains in the league. There are a lot of guys I expect to have big years this year, not necessarily because of consistent development (although that is certainly part of it), but because of a larger allocation of minutes stemming from a trade of another player at that position or simply because more playing time is in just in the order. 

Eric Bledsoe – I expect Bledsoe to put up double-digit point totals and good assist numbers this season as his role is extended from a bench guard in L.A. to a starting shooting guard in Phoenix. Bledsoe has the versatility to play both guard positions, and given the lack of depth behind him and Goran Dragic, I expect his mpg numbers to hover in the mid 30s throughout the year. He has a solid health history since being in the league and 3 years of experience, 2  of which are behind the best point guard in the league, and Phoenix should be willing to let him play as much as possible in what is otherwise a lost season. There may be some growing pains at first, but I expect Bledsoe to translate as an effective guard going forward.

Enes Kanter – Kanter sat on the bench for what was a near perfect adjustment period for an NBA center (3 years), and is now awarded the starting role in his 4^th year. Kanter has backed up perhaps the most offensively proficient center in the league in Al Jefferson during his time in the NBA, and should now receive about twice the minutes he had been receiving before. Kanter is a terrific rebounder, particularly offensively, and shot very well around the rim and from the field in general. Kanter also posted the best defensive rating on the team last season, and how the Kanter-Favors frontline develops for Utah will be the most interesting development for this team going forward. I expect Kanter to have a good season.

Derrick Favors – Similar to Kanter, Favors was also a 3^rd overall selection and should also have  a breakout year. This is obvious; the Favors-Millsap-Jefferson frontcourt logjam in Utah hindered his development a tad, but now that Millsap is gone Favors can have full responsibility of the starting power forward. He’s already a terrific rebounder, good defender, and spectacular finisher around the rim, so a little bit of offensive polish is needed to make the next jump in performance. Even if he never becomes completely polished offensively, the jump in minutes alone should solidify him as a crucial piece going forward for the Jazz. His name was a pretty obvious selection for this list and he is my bet for most improved player.

Larry Sanders – Sanders is already one of the best centers in the league in terms of defending and rebounding combined, and I expect his minutes to take a decent leap this season. Sanders looks like a perennial defensive player of the year candidate going forward in my eyes, especially since he stays pretty healthy overall. Sanders had the highest defensive rating on the Bucks last season (min 40 games played), and not only posesses the athleticism and strength to protect the rim, but also the defensive smarts. As for his offensive side, it’s not as promising, but Sanders still finishes at the rim very well and had a low turnover rate last season.

John Wall – Wall would be my bet for most improved player if not for the fact that his minutes can’t increase that much from last season. This means his per game stats won’t balloon that much, and I think that will make him a bit less noticed overall for the MIP award (also, there’s a slight injury risk here). But holy cow do I expect big things from wall. Wall came back from injury last season and torched opponents, cutting his turnover rate, passing better than ever, and shooting a tad better than league average from the field (a good number for a high volume shooter). He can get to the line almost at will, and with Bradley Beal spacing the floor and Gortat setting screens, I expect Wall to significantly boost Washington’s offensive performance from years past. He has a bit of work to do defensively, but I think he will see an all-star appearance this year.

Anthony Davis – This is perhaps the most obvious bet for most improved player, but I favor (couldn’t resist) Derrick in this situation because I don’t think Davis’ jump in performance will be as significant as Favors’. However, Davis is a good bet for an all-star and all-team NBA selection within the next couple years for good reason. He rebounded very well for a rookie last year, shot well from all around the floor, and showed signs of developing into a game changing defender last season, and because his development is accelerating so quickly, I expect him to take a leap in performance this season.

Jimmy Butler – Butler will begin his third season in the league as the starting shooting guard for Chicago, which should grant him around 8 or so more minutes per game than last season. Butler is already a terrific wing defender, and should continue to develop a credible 3-point shot to further enhance his value. In what I expect to be the best defense in the league in Chicago’s system, Butler should thrive defensively and gather a few rebounds to do some stat padding.

Reggie Jackson – Jackson was quickly thrust into a starting role in last year’s playoffs and actually fared quite well shooting 48% from the field and playing much better than expected. That experience will benefit him while Westbrook sits with injury for the first few weeks of the season, and I expect him to pick up where he left off. His outside shot has improved tremendously, and the relatively easy competition he faces at the beginning of the season should prepare him for a strong 6^th man role when Westbrook comes back. If he plays well at the beginning of the season without Westbrook, I’d expect to see him play at least 22 minutes per game coming off the bench.

Andre Drummond – Drummond’s situation makes him a unique selection for this list; he has potential to break out this year, but it’s hard to see how much his role is increased with Josh Smith and Greg Monroe on the team. If Monroe is traded and Drummond stays healthy, his numbers should substantially inflate, but his health going forward is the biggest question here. Drummond posted ridiculous a ridiculous rebounding rate last season, one that would translate to 15 rebounds per game, and shot 60% from the field. I expect him to improve (his minutes should increase by about 8-10 mpg), but the magnitude of his development is contingent upon his health and size of his role.

MVP

There are a surprising amount of NBA nerds predicting Kevin Durant to take home the MVP trophy over LeBron James this year. Even though I’m a Thunder fan, consider me among the pessimists of that argument. I actually expect Durant to improve his production this year in terms of passing and scoring, particularly while Westbrook is sidelined with his injury, but LeBron is still the king for a reason. James registered the 7^th highest player efficiency rating ever recorded last season while shooting 56% from the field and 40% from deep. As Wade and Bosh continue to Age, I expect LeBron to continue to pick up the slack for the Heat, and win his 3^rd consecutive MVP.

Apologies to (in order): Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul

DPOY

To me this is a toss up between Roy Hibbert, Marc Gasol, and Joakim Noah. I’m predicting the Bulls to have the best defense in the league, but Noah hasn’t played more than 66 games in a season since 2008-2009, and because he is seemingly always battling nagging injuries while resting and playing, he falls short of the top. Gasol is the defending champion of this award, after anchoring the best (Indiana and Memphis were 1a and 1b) defense in the league last year, but a new coaching staff in Memphis gives me doubts as to whether it can regain its dominance.

Roy Hibbert is a flat out beast on the defense that truly orchestrates a seamless flow of coordinated movement on that end. Paul George is the only player in that starting lineup that stands out as a great team defender while the others are good but not great defenders. Hibbert’s positioning on defense and ability to block and alter shots in the lane places him atop this list in my opinion, and his improved conditioning should allow him to hover around 30 mpg during the regular season. He also has a blemish-free health record over the past few years which gives him even more credibility for receiving this award.

EDIT: Why no Dwight Howard? I may be a little biased on this one, but I don’t see Howard becoming the defensive terror he was in Orlando again. Howard’s health has substantially declined over the past few seasons, and while he gives the Rockets an upgrade defensively, I don’t think it’ll be enough to win DPOY.

Apologies to (in order): Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Larry Sanders, Dwight Howard

NBA Champion

So who is going to win it all? The short answer is I have no idea. A lot of teams could make it to the finals this year, and I think the Heat, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, Spurs, Nets, and even Rockets have a good shot at winning a title. The NBA is a game of inches, and depending on injuries, home court advantage, coaching, and just plain luck, the title could swing in a bunch of different ways.

I don’t think Miami 3-peats this season. I like the potential of the Bulls’ offense with Derrick Rose back in the lineup, and I like them to top Miami to make it to the finals. In the west I think the Thunder’s starting unit (Westbrook-Sefalosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins lineups killed opponents last year during the regular season per NBA.com/stats) continues its dominance in the postseason and knocks off the Warriors (surprise) to make it to the finals again.

Bulls vs. Thunder is a toss up in my mind. I honestly have no idea who would win this series if this prediction actually came to fruition.

I’ll take the Thunder to win the championship in 2014.

This is my prediction.

Enjoy the season NBA fans!

Season Preview/Pedictions 2013-2014

My, how the time flies. It seems like just yesterday we were on the edge of our seats for the first NBA finals game 7 in 3 years before LeBron slammed the door shut on his second consecutive NBA championship.

Over the offseason the Bulls got their superstar back from injury, the Pacers deepened their bench, the Nets reloaded through a blockbuster trade, and the rest of the NBA did everything in their power to shut Miami’s championship window. So here I am to present my blind claims of why the Heat won’t repeat, which teams will make the playoffs, and predict win totals of each team that look good on paper until someone like Kyrie Irving or Steph Curry suffer catastrophic injuries and and completely throw off my projections and make me look like an idiot.

East

1. Miami Heat 61-21

Not much to see here, Miami should continue to run the tables during the regular season with the majority of their roster unchanged. Dwyane Wade may sit a few more minutes than he did last year due to age and injury, but LeBron remains king for now, and the Heat have the added bonus of residual chemistry from the past two seasons.

2. Chicago Bulls 60-22

Chicago finally has the MVP back, and the negative effects of Tom Thibodeau’s extreme minute allocation to his starting 5 should balance out with the positive chemistry this unit exudes. Butler has another year of experience under his belt, and with Rose back on the roster, Hinrich, Gibson, and Dunleavy should provide relief to a starting five that has been banged up for the past couple years. I may be  a tad bullish (sorry) on the Bulls, but I really think Rose hits the ground running right off the bat.

3. Indiana Pacers 52-30

The NBA’s best defense in 2012-2013 retains its entire starting five again this season, not to mention a stacked bench that won’t actually self-destruct at the end of quarters. Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, and Danny Granger (hopefully) replace Tyler Hansbrough, D.J. Augustin, and Sam Young this year, and I expect Paul George and Roy Hibbert to both take a leap in terms of performance this year, even if it is a minor one.

4. Brooklyn Nets 52-30

I know I only have them finishing 4^th in the conference, but I expect Brooklyn to stumble through the regular season to a 3 or 4 seed and then make some noise in the playoffs. Garnett and Pierce will be under strict supervision as far as minutes go; I’d be surprised to see either significantly surpass 30 or so mpg this year.

5. New York Knicks 49-33

The Knicks took a downturn this offseason and I think it’ll bite them in the butt this year after finishing as the 2 seed last season. Bargnani doesn’t make this team significantly better in really any way unless he can go back to shooting like he did and 2010, and the continual health of Tyson Chandler remains uncertain for now.

6. Atlanta Hawks 42-40

Another freaking Pacers-Hawks first round that no one watches anyway because it’s on NBAtv? Crap I need to change this. Atlanta is boring as hell but should somehow stumble their way into the playoffs again as Lou Williams returns from injury and Elton Brand/Paul Millsap tag team the power forward position. Atlanta has potential to go searching for a blockbuster deal to arise at the trade deadline, which could totally throw this ranking off, but those moves are very uncertain so here we stand. Maybe the Cavs/Wizards can slip up a spot or two so as to match up Atlanta with Miami for an uneventful sweep.

7. Washington Wizards 41-41

With a healthy (hopefully) John Wall, this Wizards team looks to finally snag a playoff spot for the first time since 2007-2008. Wall is a stud (more on this later if I get time for it), and the Wall-Beal duo recorded a pleasant rating on NBA.com. Gortat is a nice addition to this roster that formerly featured an indefinitely-sidelined Emeka Okafor (although his value compared to Okafor’s is relatively neutral). The Wizards netted a near-.500 record after Wall returned from injury last season and I expect both players (Beal and Wall) to take a substantial leap in performance this season.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41

This is perhaps the most unpredictable team in the NBA; with good health and a few breaks this team could win 10 more games than projected. However, I have them right here at 8 considering it’d be optomistic to even pencil in Verajao and Bynum combined for 82 games. Irving has his health history as well, and we can go ahead and assume he’ll be out for at least 15 games as usual. But a healthy Cavs team is very dangerous, especially with Tristan Thompson developing into a force at the power forward position and everyone loves watching Verajao fly around the court for 25 games until he fractures his foot… Okay these injuries are depressing, moving on.

9. Detroit Pistons 40-42

How much will Josh Smith help the Pistons? My bet is not much, at least when Detroit goes big with Drummond, Smith and Monroe all sharing the floor at once. They’ll need  a lot of help from the backcourt to spread the floor here which is asking a lot from Brandon Jennings and company. It’ll be interesting to see what Joe Dumars does with Monroe as trade bait. Barring a spectacular sophomore season from Andre Drummond, this team is lottery bound.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 36-46

Milwaukee has a total of four players remaining on this year’s roster from last year, but should still finish in about the same position despite the overhaul. Brandon Knight and O.J. Mayo supplement this deep but unspectacular frontcourt and the only long term player I see on this roster is Larry Sanders who coincidentally just signed a 4 year extension at a very reasonable price. Milwaukee will evaluate Brandon Knight to see if he is the point guard of the future, which is very unlikely and why I have the Bucks finishing 10^th in the east.

11. Toronto Raptors 36-46

I actually have Toronto finishing a tad higher than last season (34 wins), mainly because of the development of Jonas Valanciunas, but the major negative of the new bench (Augustin, Novak, Hansbrough) pretty much balances this out. There’s a new GM in town which means practically everyone is movable especially Rudy Gay. If Ujiri can find a buyer for Gay, I expect him to be gone quickly.

12. Charlotte Bobcats 26-56

Al Jefferson provides watchability at the very least, and perhaps a few more wins than last year’s total of 21. The young core of Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller will continue to develop chemistry together, and Charlotte will hopefully toe the line between being watchable and solidifying a strong lottery pick. It’s still going to be a rough one for Bobcat fans.

13. Boston Celtics 25-57

The Celtics will be very bad this year, and the only reason I don’t place them even lower comes from the puny competition they face at the bottom of the eastern conference. Boston Plays Toronto, Orlando and Philadelphia 4 times each, as well as Charlotte 3 times so I expect them to practically walk in to a third of their wins there. Rondo will be out for most of the season, if not all of it, but I don’t think his presence would bring them into contention anyway.

14. Orlando Magic 23-59

Orlando is playing it safe here by building and developing talent, and this unit should develop microscopically from last season as I have them finishing with 3 more wins than the 2012-2013 campaign. Vucevic is a quality center, one I have my eye on, and Victor Olidipo is one to watch for the rookie of the year award. The Magic will be bad, but could be bad enough to lock up a top 5 pick again in next year’s stacked draft.

15. Philidelphia 76ers 12-70

They’re going to suck. That’s about it. Nerlens Noel may be inactive the entire season, and Jrue Holiday is long gone. Defensively they have some talent, but the sixers should finish last in points per possession offensively. Evan Turner will have more ball handling capabilities, so his development this season is really the only thing to watch here.

West

1. San Antonio Spurs 56-26

No particular team made significant strides in the Western Conference over the offseason, and this convinces me that San Antonio will clinch the top seed by a hair this season. Tim Duncan surely won’t replicate the productive season he had last season, but Kawhi Leonard’s development should partially make up for it and no one coaches as well as Greg Popovich.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 55-27

OKC will miss Russell Westbrook for the first few weeks of the season, but his inactivity should only set them back a tad with a relatively easy November schedule. Kevin Durant should improve even more this season (gasp) as should Ibaka and Westbrook, and this window is far from closed. Scott Brooks will be challenged to innovate more offensively, but those challenges will mostly arise in playoff time, and OKC should remain among the best of the west.

3. Los Angeles Clippers 54-28

The west’s top three were the hardest for me to rank, simply because all three seem interchangeable. Yes, I allotted L.A. with two fewer wins than last season, but the west simply got better. The teams at the top slipped a little bit (Tim Duncan aging, Westbrook injury, Denver’s dysfunction) from last season, but those slips were minor (save for Denver) compared to the improvements made by teams like Houston, Golden State, New Orleans, Minnesota, and Portland. As for the Clippers, Doc Rivers should improve this team overall, but it’s hard to pinpoint the exact potential of the Griffin-Jordan frontline defensively. Factoring in Chris Paul’s yearly knee issues makes me hesitant to place them higher than third, thus here they stand.

4. Houston Rockets 52-30

The Rockets will certainly receive a performance boost with Dwight Howard on the roster, and if he stays healthy it likely places Houston among the elite in the west. But it’s hard to predict Howard’s performance given his injury issues over the past few years, and while he certainly makes them better, I don’t think D12 takes them quite over the top just yet. Omer Asik provides a quality backup, but I’d be surprised if Houston didn’t trade him for rotational pieces sometime during the season. Houston will be good, but not quite good enough for a top 3 seed this year.

5. Golden State Warriors 52-30

This is another team I desperately want to place higher with all of the talent on this roster plus the tremendous coaching, but the injury risk makes me hesitant to do so. Stephen Curry had his first “healthy” season last year since 2010-2011, and Andrew Bogut has played a total of 43 regular season games over the past two years. Andre Iguodala plus a healthy Bogut make this team a legit championship contender, but it’s hard to predict how healthy they will be overall throughout the season. If they remain intact through the playoffs, the Warriors are a good bet to make it to the Western Conference Finals.

6. Memphis Grizzlies 50-32

The Grizz have the setback of the growing pains that come from a new coaching system, but Mike Miller’s addition over the offseason should help this team space the floor on offense. The core is still intact with Conley, Allen, Gasol, Randolph and Prince, but it’s hard to justify this team’s ceiling being considerably higher than 50 wins or so. I still love this defense, but Memphis takes a small step back this year with the coaching change to the 6 seed.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves 44-38

I’m banking on this being the year that things finally come together for Minnesota. Rubio, Love, and Pekovic are all healthy (for now), and there are some quality rotational pieces filling in the gaps. Kevin Martin comes in from Oklahoma City as does Corey Brewer from Denver, and this team should light it up offensively with a quality inside-out balance. It’s defensively suspect, but not terribly; the Love-Pekovic defensive deficiencies are a bit overblown in my mind which is why I think this is a playoff team.

8. New Orleans Pelicans 42-40

I have the Pellies barely surpassing the Mavs for the final playoff spot in the west just by a gut feeling. I expect Anthony Davis to have a big year 2 in New Orleans here, and I’m a huge fan of Jrue Holiday. Eric Gordan can be used as an efficient scorer or trade bait, and Ryan Anderson and Tyreke Evans provide offensive assistance. Monty Williams is a solid coach as well, and I’m excited for what this team can do.

9. Dallas Mavericks 40-42

I think Dallas certainly has the talent of a playoff team, if it wasn’t for being in the loaded western conference and the toughest division in basketball. Everyone in this division is very talented, which means 16 games total against said talent alone, and I think Dallas is the least proficient of the pack. Dirk is in a contract year, and with his retirement is quickly approaching, it makes me wonder if Mark Cuban has any tricks up his sleeve.

10. Denver Nuggets 40-42

What a tumble. From 57 wins in 2012-2013 I have Denver winning 17 less games this season because of injuries and poor management. A new coach and injuries to Gallinari and Wilson Chandler make me question this team’s potential this season. They have the plusses of a strong home court advantage and a relatively easy division, but I think this team underperforms this season.

11. Portland Trail Blazers 38-44

NBA bloggers are much more optimistic about the Blazers’ potential this season than I am. I think this team will continue to struggle defensively with Robin Lopez protecting the rim (although he’s a significant upgrade over J.J. Hickson), and I don’t think Damian Lillard makes a significant leap in performance going forward. LaMarcus Aldridge has just about peaked at a “great but not elite” power forward in this league, and a second year head coach convinces me that Portland isn’t just ready yet.

12. Los Angeles Lakers 38-44

Lol. I will say I’m super excited to see Kobe come back, and reports are saying that Pau Gasol is looking “better than expected”. But there’s no way the Lakers make the playoffs this year with Chris Kaman starting at center and Nick Young registering significant minutes. They will be horrid defensively, even worse than last season, and I expect them to get beat up pretty badly by the Clippers and Warriors.

13. Sacramento Kings 30-52

Greivis Vasquez makes this roster a bit more intriguing with his passing ability, but Sacramento’s new ownership has a lot of work to do to drag this team out of the cellar. The only thing worth monitoring this year is Demarcus Cousins’ performance as the clock ticks toward the deadline for a contract extension. The Kings have a lot of work to do before they can contend again.

14. Utah Jazz 25-57

I’m a bit more optimistic than most about this team’s potential, and factoring in a strong home court advantage I expect Utah to scratch out 25 wins this season. Jefferson and Millsap are both gone, but this comes at the perfect time as I expect Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter to blossom (more to come on this later hopefully). Trey Burke will go through some growing pains, but this season has been thrown away already, and the young core of Burke, Burks, Hayward, Kanter, and Favors could develop into something special in a year or two.

15. Phoenix Suns 19-62

Phoenix is going to be bad, even worse than last year with no Luis Scola or Marcin Gortat in the starting lineup. Goran Dragic is still here, and Eric Bledsoe was the key piece in the three team deal between the Clippers, Suns, and Bucks this offseason, so the Dragic-Bledsoe pairing will be somewhat interesting to watch. My guy to watch, however, is Alex Len; I think he has tremendous potential and is very young as well (20), so while he won’t be amazing anytime soon, I think he could develop into something very nice for this organization in the future.

 

Free Agency Review - Southwest Division

I finally made it. It’s taken  me about two months and 15,000 words to cover all teams’ transactions in free agency, and I’m finally taking on the final part of this 6 part series. This will cover the Southwest division, perhaps the most competitive division in the league next season.

San Antonio Spurs

Key additions: Marco Bellinelli

Key subtractions: DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Tracy McGrady

San Antonio will remain mostly unchanged per usual, and after retaining Tiago Splitter and signing sharpshooter Marco Bellinelli, should make another championship run provided Tim Duncan strikes the fountain of youth again. San Antonio signed Splitter to a 4 year $36 million contract, and while that seems a bit steep for a fringe starter like Tiago, the deal is actually structured quite favorably. Tiago will receive $10 million next year, and his salary in the following years decreases by $750,000 each year as he ages. Splitter isn’t a great player by any means, but he should provide a decent cushion once (if ever) Tim Duncan’s productivity declines. Bellinelli should provide a nice spark off the bench and can stroke it from downtown in Gary Neal’s absence.

However, this team’s title hopes hinge completely on the productivity of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan as they always have. Duncan and Manu are old (37, 36), and while this window has been closing for the past few years, it could finally be closed this year. Manu struggled mightily in last years playoffs, and one wonders how much more Duncan could have in the tank come playoff time. Kawhi Leonard projects to be a stud, but no one else on this roster has potential to reach stardom, and it will be interesting to see in which direction this franchise goes once Duncan, Ginobili and Popovich retire.

The good news here is the cap flexibility, to no surprise given the reputation of this organization. After the 2014/2015 season, Splitter’s 4 year contract is the only contract on the books, and if Duncan denies his player option that season, the Spurs could have max cap room as soon as next year. It’s unlikely that San Antonio would ever make a huge splash in free agency, but we all know they will continue to draft well in the next coming years. As for now, they’ll keep the same personnel they’ve had for the past few years and make a run at a title, and they still might just have a decent shot. And they stayed beneath the luxury tax. Nice job.

Grade: A

Memphis Grizzlies

Key Additions: Kosta Koufos, Mike Miller

Key Subtractions: Darrell Arthur, Tony Wroten, Keyon Dooling, Austin Daye

Let’s just say this: Memphis had one of the most impressive teams in the league last year. With a smothering defense from top to bottom, Lionel Hollins’ defensive scheme lead the western conference in defensive points per possession.

And then Memphis let Hollins walk… why?

Yes, it can be argued that the Westbrook injury allowed Memphis to advance further than they originally would have, but why tamper with a team that made it to the Western Conference Finals?? This team doesn’t have a lofty ceiling offensively, but with Mike Miller spacing the floor they could probably scrap together a league average offense to supplement their destructive defense. But it’s hard to tell how good this defense will be with Lionel Hollins gone. A team’s title window is such a precious time frame, especially in the NBA, and the decision to move one of the NBA’s best coaches from a team who thrives from his defensive schemes is a poor decision in my mind.

Other than that, however, Memphis played the little things pretty well. Desperate for outside shooting, the Grizzlies somehow landed Mike Miller over Oklahoma City, a move that surprised many NBA junkies, myself included. It will be interesting to see how lineups featuring both Quincy Pondexter and Mike Miller fair offensively, as they stand as the only consistent and reliable sharpshooters on this current roster. Kosta Koufos will provide a true backup center for Marc Gasol, and can improve bench units both offensively and defensively.

But I think the decision to let Lionel Hollins out of Memphis will be their falling point, especially after signing the players on this roster specifically to fit into his defensive scheme. Tony Allen just signed a 4 year contract, Conley has 3 years left on his deal, and Gasol and Randolph each have 2 years remaining. This was supposed to be the core that could reach a title, but Memphis unwisely released its catalyst. Not to mention, this team is tied up on the books until at least the summer of 2015 assuming Marc Gasol picks up his player option.

There will still be a very good basketball team in Memphis this year, but I think we saw their peak last season.

Grade: C

Houston Rockets

Key additions: Ronnie Brewer, Marcus Camby, Dwight Howard, Omri Casspi, Reggie Williams

Key subtractions: James Anderson, Carlos Delfino, Thomas Robinson, Royce White

Well they did it. Going against the common theory of success in the NBA, the Rockets have ascended to the level of championship contender without tanking first for a top draft pick. With Dwight Howard and James Harden both on the roster through the summer of 2017, Houston has invested the franchise’s next 4 to 5 seasons in these potential superstars. There is plenty of talent surrounding this potentially devastating duo, but it’s sure to overturn substantially throughout the next few years as Houston will work around their big contracts with quality role players.

The quality ownership is there; Daryl Morey has proven himself to be a top 5 general manager in the NBA, and actually has quite a few assets to work with in the coming years, specifically Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik. Many expect Asik to be moved at some point during the season, but reports claim Morey wants to keep him on the roster for the time being. Chandler Parsons is another quality asset on perhaps the most valuable contract in the NBA.

But the success of this team hinges almost completely on the health of Dwight Howard and the development of James Harden going forward. Both have asserted themselves as superstars in the league by now, and the chemistry of the two on both sides of the ball will determine the fate of this team. I’ve already covered some of my thoughts on Howard and his value, and I’ll continue on that trend and say I’m hesitant on his ability to completely recover to his prime. His health has diminished substantially within the past few years, and his defensive contributions to the Lakers last year did more harm than good. He certainly makes Houston better, but the success of this team I think will hinge mostly on Harden’s production.

As for their cap situation, the Rockets will be capped out for at least the next two summers, and considering the gargantuan contracts of Harden and Howard together, they won’t be able to make a significant free agency splash for at least 4 years. However,  Morey needed another superstar to pair with Harden, and he struck gold once again with Howard. Casspi and Reggie Williams add long range shooting to an offense that thrives on it, and Ronnie Brewer and Marcus Camby provide insurance for substantial injuries. This team should be significantly better than they were last year.

Grade: A

Dallas Mavericks

Key additions: DeJuan Blair, Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Sam Dalembert, Wayne Ellington, Devin Harris, Shane Larkin

Key subtractions: Roddy Beaubois, Elton Brand, Elton Brand, Darren Collison, Jared Cunningham,  Mike James, Chris Kaman, O.J. Mayo, Anthony Morrow

There’s no such thing as “tanking” for Mark Cuban, especially when Dirk Nowitzki is around, even if that means signing a hot shot like Monta Ellis to a 3 year deal. This roster is well above the cap for the upcoming season, but lacks substantial talent, and in the scrappy western conference, the Mavs would be blessed to even score an eight seed by the end of the year.

There are plenty of good contracts and plenty of bad. Sam Dalembert comes in on the good side, and with a  2 year deal under 8$ million that’s only partially guaranteed, it’s a steal for the Mavs. Dalembert is one of the more underrated centers in a league that severely lacks depth at that position. He can protect the rim, rebounds very effectively, and doesn’t make mistakes. Jose Calderon comes in at a decent price as well, and while I don’t like giving a 32 year old a 4 year contract, he is a quality point guard who  shoots the ball well and plays the role of floor general very well. Dejuan Blair is another steal for under $1 million.

But there’s a lot of bad as well, and it’s all Monta Ellis. Signing him to a 3 year deal is one thing, but one that is worth $26 million is way too much, even considering the scoring punch he adds offensively. Dirk’s not going to be around for forever, and if he bolts as soon as his contract expires next summer, that means having an offensive cancer on your roster for two more years than you’d like to. Ellis is perhaps the league’s most inefficient scorer, and a back court of Calderon and Ellis is going to be defensively unreliable. I’ve always thought of him as a bench scorer and nothing more, but allowing him to start for teams is a poor decision in my mind.

This year will be similar to the previous two, a few breaks here and there and the Mavs could find a way to sneak into the playoffs for a first round sweep or 5 game exit and nothing more. The future is interesting though considering Dirk’s situation as well as how the younger guys (Crowder, Larkin) develop. The Mavs would have max cap room next summer by by letting Dirk walk after his cap hold expires, and Dallas has always been an alluring destination for free agents. As for now, the Mavs are sticking with a “win now” mindset. Let’s see if that pays off long term.

Grade: B-

New Orleans Pelicans

Key additions: Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Anthony Morrow, Greg Steimsma

Key subtractions: Lou Amundson, Terrel Harris, Robin Lopez, Greivis Vasquez, Roger Mason

 

This is the team I’m most intrigued to watch this season, simply because this unit could either mesh into a powerful playoff force, or self destruct into an 11 seed. Unlike Philadelphia management, I’m very high on Jrue Holiday’s potential as a floor general and his basketball IQ; Holiday substantially elevated his play last year in Philadelphia despite being held back by an offensive system that didn’t allow him to fully blossom.

NOLA has other pieces as well. Eric Gordon is one of my absolute favorite players in the league when healthy, someone who can attack the rim with force, draw fouls in a heap, and shoot well from deep. He’s a go to scorer who can serve as a floor spacer when Holiday and Evans are handling the ball. Anthony Davis has perhaps the most potential out of any young player in the entire league, and Tyreke Evans quietly had a decent season last year in Sacramento. The list of quality pieces extends even further than this with Austin Rivers coming off the bench and Robin Lopez filling in as a capable starting center, something this team desperately needed.

The biggest concern with this team considers how the Pelicans’ logjam of ball handlers will mesh on offense. Tyreke Evans is one who is almost only effective with the ball in his hands after recognizing his lack of an outside shot, yet Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, and even Austin Rivers occasionally could all serve as primary ball handlers on most teams. They should still space the floor evenly, but Monty Williams has some interesting decision making to do regarding lineups this season. If something goes awry, it might be wise to trade one of these studs for a couple specialists and/or draft picks to continue building for the future.

But even if NOLA idles forward this season, Anthony Davis should still develop into one of the best players in the league, and they aren’t but a few pieces away from being a strong force even in the western conference. They’ve done well to have some cap room in the upcoming years, and New Orleans has added enough pieces to snag a solid playoff spot. It’s just a matter of how effectively the talent translates into production and how Monty Williams handles it.

Grade: B+