Free Agency Part 4 - Northwest Division

It’s time for part 4 of 6 where I will begin to grade the offseason performances of the Western Conference teams. The first stop is the northwest division, and perhaps what was the conference’s toughest division a few years back may not be any more with the worsening of the Jazz and Nuggets. Let’s dive in.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Key Additions: Steven Adams, Andre Roberson

Key Subtractions: Kevin Martin, Ronnie Brewer

To be honest, when 2 of the best 10 players in the world are on your books for the next 3 years, there’s really not much else to be constructed, especially when you’re sitting around $10 million above the salary cap. But is there anyway the Thunder could have performed better over the offseason than this?

Well, not really, at least with Kendrick Perkins' massive contract on the books for the next two years. The Thunder will dump over $17 million on Perkins overthe next two seasons, and given OKC’s cheapskate attitude and Sam Presti’s unexplainable love for Perkins, it’s unlikely that he’s ever waived through the use of the amnesty provision. The Perkins amnesty situation been covered by multiple sources, but I’ll try to explain it the best I can if you haven’t been able to understand it before now:

-          As of right now, OKC sits a hair below the luxury tax line. The tax comes into effect for teams with a payroll exceeding $71.7 million, and the Thunder are currently around $70 million (and will go to the most extreme measures to duck the tax).

-          The amnesty of Perkins would remove him from their payroll, which would settle to around $61 million, but this number is still above the salary cap value set at $58 million this season.

-          So the only way the Thunder could have signed a player to replace Perkins would have been through the use of the midlevel exception which is about $5 million per year.

-          Also remember, they would have had to still pay Perkins his original salary, so by shelling out the midlevel exception in addition to Perkins' original salary, OKC is tossing away about $14 million per year ($9 mil for Perk's salary and $5 for the midlevel) to replace Perkins with a 'decent' player.

Granted, I still would have liked to see the Thunder replace Perkins with someone like Zaza Pachulia (just signed a 3 year $15.6 million contract with the Bucks), or Kosta Koufos (2 yr $6 million contract with the Grizzlies), but as pointed out before, Presti is banking on Perkins’ “leadership” and “locker room presence”, and the likelihood that Perk can redeem himself of his spectacularly awful performance in last year’s playoffs. Plus there’s no way Clay Bennett wants to dump almost $30 million for mid-tier center over two years, and so Perkins it is. This isn’t terrible news for Thunder fans; I still believe Perkins has potential to be somewhat of a defensive anchor despite his deficiencies last year simply because of his experience and basketball IQ.

But the Thunder will need more help offensively, especially in the way of spacing, considering Perkins is such a minus he can’t even really finish shots at the rim: the one offensive skill a big should possess over anything else. Westbrook and Durant will still carry this offense as usual, but if either misses significant time it will restrict this otherwise very good offense. The failure to sign Mike Miller was very frustrating for the Thunder front office as well, as he would have brought  much needed shooting and depth to an OKC bench for a dirt cheap price.

Still, it would be foolish to say that this team isn’t in a place to compete: they absolutely are. Having two of the best players in the world on your roster will win you games in the NBA, and barring significant injury OKC will be good, perhaps 60 win good, once again. But to put them over the top they will need rapid improvement from Jeremy Lamb and Kendrick Perkins, and given their offseason inactivity, that seems to have been the idea Oklahoma City’s front office has been banking on all along.

Grade: B-

Denver Nuggets

Key additions: Nate Robinson, J.J. Hickson, Darrell Arthur

Key subtractions: Andre Iguodala, Kosta Koufos, Corey Brewer

The Nuggets underwent a head scratching makeover this offseason to say the least. After last year’s aggressive free agency period involving the acquisition of Andre Iguodala and later their ascension to 3^rd place in the conference, Denver gave away its best player, failed to resign George Karl (the 2013 coach of the year), and let one of the league’s most respected GMs flee for Toronto. After recording the league’s 5^th best offense in 2012-13, the Nuggets, despite having significant leverage to retain Iguodala because of his bird rights, failed to sign him to an extension. Iguodala, the catalyst in last year's up-tempo offense and defensive anchor to a defense that failed miserably when he was off the court, walked for practically nothing in return. The same is true for the coach and GM positions as well; George Karl has been consistently respected and recognized as one of the best coaches in the league, and former GM Masai Ujiri is one of the brightest league minds.

Now Denver will rely on Nate Robinson for significant scoring output, half a season of Danillo Gallinari, and a Javale McGee/Timofey Mozgov duo to protect the rim. This is not a recipe for success in any sense of the word, and while Denver does have a significant home court advantage, I still think this organization is way too much disarray to succeed. I’m not sure that they've been completely  shoved out of the playoff race, but I honestly wouldn’t doubt it, as this team has gone from a legitimate playoff contender to the Bucks of the west.

The worst part about this situation is Denver’s cap position. This team recognized its potential to become a powerhouse last offseason by signing Ty Lawson to a 4 year extension, yet unexplainably underwent somewhat of a rebuilding (?) phase this offseason. However, the problem lies more in the contracts Denver added to build for the future in the previous years, including Lawson, McGee, and Gallinari. The Nuggets will sit well over the cap for the next two seasons, and won’t have much room in the third year either. This means no significant free agent signings barring a trade, and between Lawson, McGee and Gallinari, I don’t really see any tradable contracts besides maybe Gallinari. I have no idea what’s going on here.

Grade: D

Utah Jazz

Key additions: Trey Burke, Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush, Rudy Gobert

Key subtractions: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mo Williams

Unlike Denver, Utah actually seems to have mapped out a plan for the future of the franchise, and that plan is to enter full rebuilding mode at a very good time. The Jazz will be bad next year, very bad, but they have done a noteworthy job of amassing young talent through the draft over the past few years, and will look for said talent to lead them going forward rather than the veterans of their previous roster. Plus they could be bad enough to secure a top 5 pick next year, and the current core paired with a potential superstar from next year’s draft could become a powerhouse over the next half decade.

The decision to let Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson, two staples of the Jazz franchise over the past few years, walk in free agency was crucial here. Their backups, Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, should have enough experience to start games, and while it won’t be the most experienced front line, they certainly have potential to develop into a very good front court going forward. And that’s exactly what this season will be: an experiment and long drag of scouting and dissecting their new, young talent. Trey Burke, Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, and Gordon Hayward will inserted into an array of lineup combinations to properly determine which players deserve contract extensions going forward.

The most noteworthy transaction Utah made over the offseason, however, was the decision to absorb the ridiculously overvalued contracts of Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush in exchange for multiple draft picks including Golden State’s 2014 and 2017 first rounder. This can be viewed as Utah valuing what will most likely be late 1^st round draft picks (assuming Golden State will be very good for the upcoming years) over expiring contracts of players that would otherwise not see minutes in the average NBA rotation. A lot of writers have been criticizing Utah for spending what will be more than $24 million on these contracts, but they expire after next year which will give the Jazz max cap room next summer, and it’s not like signing any better players this season would help them in the long run anyway. This is a team building for the future, and I like what’s going on here; cutting salaries, acquiring young talent, and hoarding draft picks is the way to build a team for the future, and Utah will be very bad for the first time in a while, a minor speed bump for a very supportive fan base to overcome.

Utah has good, young talent, cap space going forward, and if they can secure a top 5 pick, this will be a successful rebuilding project.

Grade: A

Portland Trail Blazers

Key additions: C.J. McCollum, Mo Williams, Robin Lopez, Thomas Robinson, Earl Watson, Dorell Wright

Key subtractions: J.J. Hickson, Eric Maynor, Luke Babbitt

This should be an interesting team to watch next season, as Portland has nicely filled in some of the gaps and deficiencies of last year’s roster with capable rotation players, and projects to make a decent run at the last two or so playoff spots in the west. Lillard and Aldridge are improving, Batum serves as a terrific “glue” guy, and C.J. McCollum has potential to aid bench units as this core grows together. Portland performed pretty poorly offensively last year, and even worse defensively, as they finished as one of the 5 worst defensive teams in terms of points per 100 possessions. But offensively this team shouldn’t struggle as much moving forward, as the 3 man lineup of Lillard, Aldridge, and Batum scored at a rate that would have ranked 6^th in the league last season, and they will continue to develop chemistry while sharing the floor as Lillard improves.

Defensively, the Robin Lopez signing should significantly upgrade their defense in terms of rim protection, especially considering he’s replacing Meyers Leonard (a rookie last year), and J.J. Hickson (not a rim protector at all), and Lopez can also score and doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s probably not their center of the future, but he’s a capable starter and comes at a very cheap price ($12 million for 2 years). It should also serve as a double victory for Portland, as Meyers Leonard, a lottery pick last year, should be able to develop under Lopez while playing bench minutes. Portland also acquired Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson to beef up perhaps what was the league’s worst bench last year (although Indiana has a strong case as well).

But you have to wonder exactly how high this team’s ceiling is going forward; Portland has some good talent, but even Lopez’s signing may only improve this team to a top 20 defensive unit, Aldridge hasn’t really proved himself as an elite power forward, and Damian Lillard is ‘already’ 23 years old. I’m not sure Portland has enough young talent to succeed going forward, and if things don’t change within the next couple years, they may have to trade some of their assets (Aldridge certainly comes to mind here). The Blazers are also capped out for the next two seasons, but that’s not a huge problem as big names aren’t exactly clamoring to come to play in Portland. However, they still need a player who can lead this roster for years to come, and unless Lillard is the guy (kinda doubt it) I’m not sure they have that.

Still, Portland did fill the holes in their roster, and they certainly have a shot at a playoff spot next year which is what they wanted.

Grade: B-

Minnesota Timberwolves

Key additions: Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad, Ronny Turiaf, Gorgui Dieng

Key subtractions: Andrei Kirilenko, Greg Steimsma, Luke Ridnour

Minnesota somewhat quietly shelled out some serious dollars this offseason, and with the signings of Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, and the resigning of Chase Budinger should make this one of the best offenses in the league provided everyone stays healthy. The lineup of Rubio, Martin, Budinger, Love, and Pekovic could work as an offensive coach’s dream; Budinger and Martin spreading the floor, Love and Rubio passing, and Pekovic’s inside scoring can kill defenses in numerous ways, and brings an invaluable characteristic to Minnesota basketball that has been missing for ages: watchability.

Minnesota’s front office management knows that this season has potential to be a healthy one, at least with Rubio and Love (Rubio almost a whole year removed from returning from ACL surgery, and Love should be healed from his broken hand), and has surrounded them with some very talented players on the wings. What's questionable, however, is the value of these contracts. Kevin Martin comes on board with a 4 year, $27 million contract, Budinger with a 3 year, $15 million contract, and Brewer with a 3 year, $14 million contract. Budinger seems to be the only player listed who signed at a reasonable price; Kevin Martin’s possesses not nearly enough defensive talent to be paid as a starter, and Corey Brewer, while a decent defender, is a high volume 3 point shooter who fails to shoot 30% from deep.

Now, the Wolves’ front office has had a notorious reputation for making spectacularly bad offseason decisions, yet none of these moves are the worst decisions in the world. Minnesota still has around $5 million in cap room remaining for this offseason, and should have a good chunk available for next offseason. But the problem lies in the bigger decisions upcoming for this team: Rubio will be due for an extension next year, Pekovic is currently in negotiations with this team for an extension as he is a restricted free agent this summer, and Love will be due for one soon as well. It may prove difficult for the Wolves to retain these players in the future (Love, Rubio, and Pekovic considered by many to be the core of this team going forward) simply because of the amount of money shelled out to the role players during this offseason.

Rubio and Love will most likely seek a max extension, and assuming both do deserve it (I think they do/will), the ongoing contract negotiations with Pekovic this summer will be a crucial development going forward. Signing Pek for around $12 million per year might give the Wolves a chance to keep Rubio and Love, but if Minnesota’s front office concedes to Pekovic’s request for $15 million per year it probably won’t be feasible going forward unless someone takes a significant pay cut.

I want to give Minny the benefit of the doubt here, mainly because a healthy group this year should be an exciting playoff team, a healthy development for a starved fanbase. But I fear that the front office gave up a few too many bills for some of these players, and it may obstruct them from achieving their long term goal of locking up the trio of Love, Rubio, and Pekovic together.

Grade: C+

Free Agency Review - Southeast Division

Miami Heat

Key additions: None

Key subtractions: Mike Miller

The Heat have made the decision to stand their ground over the offseason, and will continue to place their trust in the big 3, more specifically LeBron’s dominance and Dwyane Wade’s knees. Miami finished last season with the top offense and the 7^th ranked defense in terms of points per possession, so they really don’t need upgrades in any position.

And that’s a good thing because they are well over the cap and luxury tax line. This is to be expected when three of the best players in the world are absorbing most of the space on your books, but it could become a problem if the Heat sputter a little bit this year and/or other teams begin to catch up. Indiana has made significant strides through free agency, and all bets are off once Derrick Rose returns from injury assuming he is at 100%.

Miami will still be good though, of course; LeBron is still the best player in the world and showing no signs of stopping here. Bench units will not contain Mike Miller any longer, as he has moved on to Memphis after the use of the amnesty provision, but his contributions should be replicated relatively easy, especially with the sudden emergence of Chris Bosh as a legitimate three point threat. The offensive structure should remain relatively unchanged: lots of transition with LeBron the focal point of the offense and three point shooters spacing around the perimeter.

Looking forward to the future, though, things start to get interesting. As stated earlier, Miami was already capped out for this summer, so few moves were actually possible to significantly upgrade the roster. However, every member of the Big 3 will be handed a player offer by the team next year, meaning they can opt out of the final two years that technically finish out their contract to join on to another team through free agency. The Heat are fine for now ¹ , but if something catastrophic happens this year, and the big 3 split up (LeBron back to Cleveland? That’d be cool), Miami will be forced to starting from ground zero. As of now however, if you have the best player in the world on your roster, you’re a title contender.

Grade: A-

Atlanta Hawks

Key additions: Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon, Elton Brand, DaMarre Carroll, Lucas Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder

Key subtractions: Devin Harris, Ivan Johnson, Dahntay Jones, Zaza Pachulia, Johan Petro, Josh Smith, Anthony Tolliver

Atlanta, the most boring team in the entire NBA in my opinion, will somehow return to playoff action again next spring most likely. As far as the discussion for the most recent successful franchises in the league, the Hawks are somewhere above the Bucks but below the more talented teams: stuck with an average playoff seed year after year and consistently suffering an early exit.

Atlanta actually took a decent swing at Dwight Howard, trying to lure him to play in his hometown with their awful stadium sounds and unsupportive fan base. This was pretty much their only shot at rising to true contention, and while it was a decent effort, Atlanta still wound up around 4^thor 5^th in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes.

They did make some quality moves, however. Atlanta got away with highway robbery for Paul Millsap, a vastly underrated multidimensional talent who is very skilled offensively. Millsap is effective everywhere on the floor out to almost the three point arc, and his unselfishness should complement Al Horford very well when forming a 1-2 punch. The Hawks also signed Elton Brand and his massive wingspan to be a very quality 3^rd big that can play either the 4 or the 5. Kyle Korver brings shooting on a favorable contract, and they also signed two talented rookies in the first round of the draft. Lucas Nogueira will most likely be stashed in Spain for at least one more year in hopes that he can develop into a Sam Dalembert type rim protector. Dennis Schroder looks tremendously promising, some scouts prematurely claiming he could develop into an All-Star, and he’s already drawing Rajon Rondo/Tony Parker comparisons (fitting considering those two were selected late in the first round as well).

The most noteworthy offseason decision Atlanta faced, however, regarded the resigning of Jeff Teague, a good but not great point guard in the league’s most stacked position. Teague was initially signed to an offer sheet by Milwaukee (he was a restricted free agent), which was then matched by Atlanta. It’s clear that Atlanta wanted to keep Teague in their system, but at what price it is not certain because the Hawks were forced to match Milwaukee’s 4 year $32 million offer to retain him. His price seems about fair considering this season he’ll make what is smack dab in between what Kyle Lowry ($6.21 million) and Ty Lawson ($10.786 million) will make in 2013-2014. I would rank Teague somewhere in between those two players talent wise, and while he’s most likely already reached his potential, he’s a solid point guard going forward and the Hawks will try to build their roster at other positions to form a capable nucleus.

But “capable” is really the best Atlanta will be, unless they somehow nab a franchise changer. A core of Teague, Horford, and Millsap will be similar talent wise to what Utah has had for the past few years, and they haven’t really made much noise in the playoffs as of late. In fact, if the Hawks continue to suffer first round exits, they may eventually have to replicate what Utah is doing this year and build around some younger talent unless they can nab a big name in free agency. Atlanta does have some youthful talent on their roster from recent drafts (Cunningham, Noguiera, Schroeder, and Jenkins), and they are banking on the hope that these guys can become talented contributors.

As far as their cap situation, Atlanta has decent flexibility looking forward to the future, but probably not quite enough for a max contract next year unless there’s a significant team option declination. Atlanta hasn’t had much luck in the way of attracting free agents either, at least as of late, and that could be their downfall which really is unfortunate. The Hawks are one superstar away from competing for a title, but the same can also be said for a large handful of other teams around the league.

Again, a returning Lou Williams will aid this nothing more than solid core, and Atlanta could sneak into the second round of the playoffs within the next few years if their opponent suffers an injury or one of the Hawks over performs, but what we see today looks like the best it’s ever going to be: the Hawks will continue to be unbearably boring.

Grade: B

Washington Wizards

Key additions: Eric Maynor, Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.

Key subtractions: Leandro Barbosa, Jason Collins

The most critical decision Washington faced over the offseason was the decision regarding the resigning of John Wall. Wall’s rookie deal expires next year as he will enter into restricted free agency, so the Wizards have the opportunity to sign him to a max deal now or later.

Washington has opted to give Wall the max deal now rather than later to avoid at all costs any hint of free agency, even if they would likely retain him next summer anyway. Some have argued Washington should have held out to ensure he has a healthy season this year, but it’s clear Wizards management values him as their key building block going forward. Wall will be on the books for the next 5 years, receiving $80 million over that time period.

In my mind this is a good decision. I may have waited to extend him after next summer after watching him improve this year, but it’s not the most risky move in the world to extend him now either. Wall absolutely possesses the potential to be one of the top point guards in the league, and while he struggled earlier in the year, he really elevated his level of play late last season. Perhaps an even more promising element to Wall’s game was his on court success when paired with Bradley Beal. The Wizards posted a net rating of +8.8 points per 100 possessions when the duo shared the court according to NBA.com, the second best two man lineup on the Wizards’ roster. Wall pulled up his efficiency on long 2s from “bad” to “acceptable” last year, and his field goal percentage was raised from the last two seasons to around league average (a good number for a high volume shooter who also gets to the line often).²

It’s clear he’s the centerpiece of Washington’s future, and the Wizards will continually seek out talent to build around Wall for the future. Martell Webster netted a 4 year, $22 million contract from the Wiz, and while some viewed this as a slight overpay, athletic wings who can shoot and defend are extremely valuable, especially with someone like Wall to continually get them quality looks. Webster won’t be that old at the end of this contract (30), and he shot a career high on 3s last year in both attempts (4.3/game) and percentage (42%). Eric Maynor should handle running the second unit when Wall rests on the bench or misses a few games due to injury and his 2 year $4 million contract is very favorable for Washington.

I like what the Wizards have done here. Otto Porter projects to be a solid rotation piece going forward and they should have enough talent to sneak into a playoff spot this year provided Wall stays healthy. Better yet, the gargantuan contracts of Okafor and Ariza (Okafor mainly) both expire after this season which would net Washington near max cap room even after the Wall extension.

Grade: B

Charlotte Bobcats

Key additions: Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller

Key subtractions: Gana Diop, Reggie Williams, Byron Mullens

The Charlotte Bobcats made the biggest news their franchise has made in a long time by signing Al Jefferson to a 3 year $40 million dollar contract that contains a player option for year 3. It was a move that honored them national attention for the first time in a while.

I have done a ton of reading on this move (especially Bobcats blogs), and I still have no idea what to think of it. Let me first throw this out there: I have never been a devout fan of a franchise that has consistently underperformed to the degree that Charlotte has for the past few seasons (no Chiefs jokes here please). Lots of Bobcats fans rejoiced at this decision, even though they still knew this roster stood far away from the running for a playoff spot. In fact, nearly all of the writers and fans at www.rufusonfire.com liked the move in one way or another. It was intended to bring a veteran with strong leadership experience to the roster, and a player that could ease the scoring burden from other players and significantly improve team rebounding. Al will do that just fine, however, will he significantly aid in the effort to attract big name free agents to Charlotte?

This is a good move, but I’m not sure it’s at the right time or place. Sure, it will make the Bobcats watchable and competitive this season, but I’m not sure if it actually improves the team’s chances of winning a championship (don’t laugh, that’s every team’s goal) going forward. With what is likely to be one of the best drafts ever upcoming next June, is it much more painful to withstand another losing season in hopes of achieving a top 5 pick rather than signing a player who possesses just enough talent to possibly escape a high lottery pick?

Apparently that answer was yes, and so here we stand: a youthful roster with some potential to grow into something promising, and a 28 year old veteran who will help the Bobcats bring it every night and give them a charismatic locker room presence. The selection of Cody Zeller at the 4^thpick in the draft continued the trend of Charlotte’s risky draft selection within the past few years, but a lot of writers think he can be a valuable piece going forward. Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are continually developing as well.

Charlotte also remained determined to retain Gerald Henderson, a restricted free agent this summer, by signing him to a 3 year $18 million dollar deal. Henderson would have seen much more money if he had proven himself as a more reliable long distance shooter over the past few years, but Charlotte signed him to a very reasonable deal, and he has plenty of value through other forms of offense and on defense. The spacing will suffer with him on the floor, but Henderson tore it up at the end of last season, and if he can develop his 3 point shot (unlikely, although it has slowly improved over the past few years) he could be a decent value at this price.

A core of Andrew Wiggins, Walker, MKG, and Zeller going forward is much more appealing in my eyes than one with Jefferson in place of Wiggins³ , but the Bobcats will be watchable next year, and that’s very important to a starved fan base. They will also have max cap room next summer after Ben Gordon’s ridiculous contract expires, and the organization is banking on big Al making Charlotte an attractive destination when that time comes.

Grade: C+

Orlando Magic

Key additions: Jason Maxiell, Victor Oladipo

Key subtractions: Beno Udrih

The Magic, after accumulating assets such as Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Maurice Harkless, and Andrew Nicholson through previous drafts, have made little noise during this offseason. Vucevic proved to be the piece that claimed Orlando as the unforeseen winners in the Dwight Howard trade, and the franchise will continue to build around him. They will be bad again this year, but unlike Charlotte they will patiently wait for quality pieces to become available while building the team through the draft in the meantime. Oladipo has been considered by some to be a favorite to win the rookie of the year award, and the management will inspect each piece of the roster this season (especially the young guns) to determine their future with the organization.

Again, this team will be very bad this year, but Orlando has in their favor both a stacked upcoming draft and max contract room next summer with no bad contracts on their roster. Aaron Afflalo might (and should, in my opinion) be traded sometime soon for younger talent and/or draft picks, and Hedo Turkaglu is on an expiring contract.

The Jason Maxiell signing was the only major offseason acquisition other than the Oladipo draft pick, and his contract is very favorable at 2 year $5 million.Maxiell will provide a terrific locker room presence with his NBA experience, even if he’s not a terrific basketball player.

Again, this will most likely be a boring season for Magic fans, but there is some quality, young talent on this roster, and after this year Orlando may return to relevancy.

Grade: B

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1 As Zach Lowe pointed out, the use of the amnesty provision on Mike Miller pulled Miami’s total salary below the next luxury tax level. You can read about that here, but basically, before using amnesty on Miller, Miami was in the 4th incremental tax bracket. Miller’s amnesty brought them down to the 3rd tier which saved a lot of money in the luxury tax system^↩
2 For comparison, Wall actually shot more times per 40 minutes adjusted than James Harden and recorded a higher field goal percentage.^↩
3 Again, Charlotte will be bad this year, but I’m not sure they could be bad enough to secure a top 5 pick. Philadelphia, Boston, Phoenix, Orlando, and Utah will all be terrible and probably worse.^↩

Free Agency Review - Central Division

Alright, it’s time for part 2: the central division. Indiana and Chicago will most likely head this division once again, but Cleveland and even Detroit look to be putting themselves in position to compete for years to come. Here’s an overview of some of the major transactions each team made this summer, and the implications of those on their respective salary cap futures.

Indiana Pacers

Key additions: Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland, Solomon Hill

Key subtractions: D.J. Augustin, Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green

The Pacers had been on track to make a very decent splash in free agency after the initial signings of C.J. Watson and Chris Copeland. In addition to these nifty signings, Indiana exercised the clever decision to let D.J. Augustin and Tyler Hansbrough both walk in the offseason, and were expected to rely on the starting five from last year as well as an upgraded bench of Watson, Copeland, and a returning Granger to carry them past the Heat.

Long story short, this was a team prepared  to make a decent run at the top of the eastern conference, but still may have not had enough of a bench to overcome Miami. Until Larry Bird (team president) pulled the trigger on a move that brought Luis Scola to the current roster, that is. Scola significantly upgrades this team’s second unit, and gives the Pacers a big bench scorer who could give Miami (or any team) fits if they play small lineups against them. The trade sent Miles Plumlee, Gerald Green, and a 2014 first rounder¹ to Phoenix for Scola, and while I’m not exactly sure if giving up Plumlee and a first rounder next year was the best decision, Phoenix GM Ryan McDonough is hoarding as much future talent as possible, and Indiana was very much in need of bench help. The Pacers are a win-now mode and will have to make the best of what they have on this current roster for years to come.

As far as the cap implications, Indiana played free agency nearly perfectly. They are capped out for this season, but still under the luxury tax threshold which is critical for a team not known for big spending. They have some crucial decision making to do next offseason when both Paul George and Danny Granger become free agents (Paul George restricted, Danny Granger unrestricted), but Paul George is expected to receive a max deal sometime given his recent performance² and even if Granger proves to be too expensive to resign next year, Indiana could still survive if Solomon Hill develops into a decent roll player. Lance Stephenson is also on an expiring contract, so Indiana will have to make a decent run at him next offseason, and while they won’t be able to add any big names for the next couple of years due to being capped out, they should at least be able to still keep this current core intact.

Before acquiring Scola, I still would have ranked Miami at the top of the conference by just a hair. However, the current roster with a bench unit of Scola, Granger, and Watson should have enough talent to thrive even when the starters are off the floor. Let’s not forget, nearly everyone on this roster is still getting better, and the Pacers should be in prime position to win for the next few years barring injury.

Grade: A

Chicago Bulls

Key Additions: Tony Snell, Mike Dunleavy

Key Subtractions: Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli

The Bulls’ roster remains relatively unchanged even after free agency, which is a more than acceptable decision by the Chicago front office after last year’s team made a thrilling playoff run even after being decimated by injuries. Chicago’s future and potential for titles for the next four years will almost completely hinge on Derrick Rose’s health, as his max deal extends through the 2016-17 season. In addition to Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich were just a few players that sustained substantial injuries during at least a part of last season, and it will take a combination of luck and the careful massaging of minutes by Tom Thibodeau during the regular season to fashion a healthy roster and propel Chicago to the top of the conference.

Not much extra talent was required for this roster to be elite, but Chicago added a couple key components to their roster anyway by the way of Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell, and this could create some interesting floor spacing lineup combinations to pave the way to the rim for Derrick Rose. Chicago finished second to last in the league in 3pt attempts per game in the regular season, and Dunleavy will certainly help in that regard. He shot 43% from behind the arc last year, and is capable of playing either wing position which creates valuable versatility in Thibodeau’s offense. Tony Snell projects to be another solid wing for the Bulls as well, and will add athleticism and good shooting to a roster that will need it if injuries dismantle it once again.

Similar to the Pacers, Chicago has solidified their core for years to come, and while there are reports of action on the trade market involving Luol Deng or amnesty for Carlos Boozer, I don’t expect those moves to happen anytime soon. Thibs reportedly loves Deng, and values Boozer’s offensive contributions as well. Chicago will be an elite team for as long as they are able to keep this core together, however they are currently well above the luxury tax threshold and will eventually need to renounce the rights to some of their roster to avoid being repeat offenders³

Grade: A

Milwaukee Bucks

Key additions: Luke Ridnour, Zaza Pachulia, Carlos Delfino, O.J. Mayo, Gustavo Ayon, Giannis Antetokounmpo  

Key subtractions: JJ Redick, Monta Ellis, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Mike Dunleavy, Samuel Dalembert, Marquis Daniel, Drew Gooden

I about lost it when I saw the team slogan on Milwaukee’s ESPN NBA blog “8^th seed or bust”, and they communicated their desire to continue to do just that for the next few years through their poor offseason management. My biggest gripe involving the Bucks was their decision in the handling of JJ Redick. After dealing for Redick for some much needed 3 point shooting last season to sneak into the final playoff spot, GM John Hammond bewilderingly rid him for two crappy second round draft picks a few months later. Remember, they gave Tobias Harris away (a young, budding talent) to receive Redick (and Ayon and Ish Smith) in return, and acquiring second round draft picks isn’t going to get you very far in the NBA.⁴

Okay, so they gave away JJ Redick for nearly nothing, but surely that’s the worst, right? Well... no. Seeing as there were hardly any wing players left on the roster after freeing Marquis Daniels and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Milwaukee, desperate for some wing depth, signed O.J. Mayo to a 3 year, $24 million deal. This wouldn’t be so bad if Mayo could split time with other guards, but as of right now he stands as the only shooting guard on this roster. Mayo serves as a decent rotation piece, but one that will barely upgrade this roster at all, especially considering he will play heavy minutes. Monta Ellis is finally gone, but Milwaukee simply let him walk rather than engaging in a sign and trade that could have significantly upgraded their future. And now the Bucks have a seven man logjam rotation of bigs, including Ayon, Sanders, Udoh, Pachulia, Ilyasova, Henson, and Antetokounmpo. This is bad within itself, but new coach Larry Drew must also avoid letting this buildup reduce Larry Sanders’ minutes, as Sanders, the most promising player on this roster, could absolutely develop into a top 5 center in the NBA within the next few years.

And we haven’t even addressed the most crucial decision the Bucks face this offseason: the Brandon Jennings decision. Coach Nick did a terrific breakdown that confirmed my initial perception of his talent (or lack thereof), but I’ll go ahead and give some more of my thoughts here. As of right now, Jennings, due for a contract extension as his rookie deal expires after next year, is reportedly requesting an extension worth $12 million per year for 4 years, while the Bucks will only budge to around $8 or $9 mil. Personally, I would commit neither if I were general manager John Hammond. I like that Milwaukee continues to hold out on this extension, rather than giving into Jennings’ desires. To me, he’s a hot-head, high volume shooter with low efficiency who thinks he is much better than he is (hence asking for $12 million/year). There’s a reason Jennings, a restricted free agent this summer, hasn’t received any attention from other teams, and Milwaukee basically has 3 options here. They could give into Jennings desire for a $12 million/year deal, they could not budge and hope he accepts a multi-year deal worth less money, or, if the sides fail to reach a contractual agreement, they could resort to the one-year qualifying offer of $4.5 million for this season knowing Jennings will most likely leave Milwaukee next offseason through unrestricted free agency.^{5 6}

Even losing Jennings wouldn’t damage Milwaukee much in the future, there are plenty of quality point guards in the NBA, and the Bucks will have plenty of cap room next offseason to make a significant splash. As for right now however, it’s still 8^th seed or bust.

Grade: D (The Jennings decision could make this better or worse)

Detroit Pistons

Key additions: Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Key subtractions: Corey Maggette, Jason Maxiell, Jose Calderon

The Pistons were in a very envious position. Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, and now Kentavious Caldwell-Pope looked to be a solid, fundamental core to build around for the upcoming years.

And then Josh Smith happened.

Look, I understand the buzz around Smith, he’s everything but a superstar, a player with one major, and easily fixable flaw (shot selection) who encompasses everything you want in a teammate going forward. But the obvious and most intriguing dilemma new coach Maurice Cheeks faces is the issue of spacing, not only because these three sharing the floor can’t shoot, but the Pistons simply have few reliable deep shooters on their entire roster. Smith will enhance the versatility of the rotations being able to play the 3 and 4, which could brace Detroit if the roster suffered significant injuries. He’s a terrific passer and a terrific teammate who brings defensive intensity every night and is a terror in the transition game. There’s no question he’s worth his 4 year $54 million contract.

But for this team, this roster, and this situation? Smith would have been much better suited to sign on with a contender, and while I understand most contenders may have not had the cap room he had requested, I’m not sure Detroit is the right place for him anyway. Drummond, Monroe, Caldwell-Pope, and even Brandon Knight composed a young core with potential to grow into a powerhouse within a few years, and Smith gives them help now when they should probably prefer it later. This move brings Detroit within playoff proximity next season, but by the time Drummond and Monroe reach their primes, Smith will already have reached the back end of his career.

The other situation with this roster regards the point guard position, and I am absolutely certain that Pistons GM Joe Dumars should have used the money spent on Smith to beef up the point guard position. Players such as Luke Ridnour, Jose Calderon, and Eric Maynor all switched teams this offseason, and all of these names would have solved this point guard dilemma as well as saved money. Unfortunately the point guard rotation now consists of Will Bynum, Rodney Stuckey, Brandon Knight, and Chauncey Billups. Billups is the most likely to start, but he’s old, and this could also restrain Brandon Knight from fully developing. However, Knight isn’t qualified to be a starting point guard as of right now anyway, and very well may never be, Will Bynum has been awful unless he’s paired with Drummond, and Stuckey isn’t even a pure point guard.

I could stand completely wrong in a few years if Smith actually integrates smoothly into the operations of this roster, and he could bring a strong leadership presence to the locker room to better effectively develop Drummond and Monroe. But the new CBA favors teams that stay young and under the cap, and I doubt his intangible contributions will outweigh his hindrances of this young core.

Grade: C

Cleveland Cavaliers

Key additions: Anthony Bennett, Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack, Earl Clark

Key subtractions: Daniel Gibson, Luke Walton, Marresse Speights, Shaun Livingston

The Cavs made one of the most newsworthy splashes in free agency this offseason, signing Andrew Bynum to a 2 year, $24 million contract. It sounds unfavorable on the surface, but when digging into the details of the contract terms, it is discovered that only $6 million of that money is actually guaranteed, as Bynum has to meet deadlines by avoiding being waved due to his health. It’s an incredible deal for both sides, and considering Bynum’s health reputation it may have been an even bigger steal for him and his destructive knees.

Basically, a completely healthy Cavs team sets up to be a championship contender without a doubt; Kyrie is in full force, Thompson has developed into a multifaceted role player, Andrew Bynum can be a top 10 player when engaged, and Varejao is a defensive stalwart and had a monstrous rebounding season last year before going down with injury.

Unfortunately, however, the word “healthy” doesn’t exist in Cleveland dictionaries. Kyrie has had numerous setbacks over the past few years, Varejao is never ever ever ever healthy, and Bynum missed all of last season. And that has to make the future murky for Cleveland GM Chris Grant. Cleveland has a heap of crucial decisions to make next offseason. Irving and Thompson will both be due for contract extensions, Bynum will either be renounced or signed to the second half of his deal, and Varejao is under a team option worth nearly $10 million which all raise lots of questions. It sounds silly, but does Kyrie acquire a max deal if he again misses significant time this season? How much is Tristan Thompson worth? Are you going to risk $10 million on a fragile Varejao?

Those are all questions for next offseason, but as far as this offseason goes, the Cavs performed very well. There’s only so much you can do with an injury prone roster, but only time will tell if this core can prove healthy enough to make it far. Jarrett Jack and Earl Clark beef up the bench significantly, and we will be closely monitoring the performances and health of Irving, Bynum and the rest of the Cavs this winter. And even if some of these players become restrained by health issues, Cleveland will have loads of cap room as soon as next year, and plenty of team options to rid themselves of injury prone players.

Grade: B+

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1 The 2014 pick from Indiana is protected (to which degree it hasn’t been revealed yet, but that’s unlikely to matter considering Indiana’s pick will most likely be in the high 20s next year anyway. ^↩
2 And all this talk about him going to LA? Forget about it. The new CBA gives a current team substantial leverage to retain their restricted free agents, and if the Pacers want to keep George, which they do, then they will.^↩
3 Repeat offenders of the luxury tax (set at around $70 or $71 million) pay significantly more over time than non-repeat offenders. See here for more.^↩
4 What makes it even worse was that these second rounders are protected, which means they will most likely be at the very end of the draft. Shameful^↩
5 Jennings reportedly wants out of Milwaukee anyway; this could be a win-win.^↩
6 The qualifying offer is absolutely the route I would take if I were Milwaukee. Look, this guy has almost reached his ceiling, he’s not good, and he doesn’t want to be there anyway, why sign him to a multi-year deal? Take Jennings for the cheap $4.5 million this season, let him walk next year, find some way to draft a point guard in the draft, and live with Ridnour as your starting PG the next year while you wait for your draft pick to develop. Some Bucks fans claim the qualifying offer should be the last resort in this scenario because Jennings will bitch about it all season and not play as motivated. WHO CARES?! It’s not like you’re going places this season anyway! Sheesh. ^↩

Free Agency Review – Atlantic Division

Free Agency Review – Atlantic Division

This is the first part of a 6 part series that will grade each team’s performance in this year’s free agency market. The Atlantic Division will be the first to be dissected, and although most teams haven’t filled out their rosters entirely, they will soon enough, especially by the time I finish breaking down all 30 teams. The first is the Atlantic Division, let’s go.

New York Knicks

Key additions: Andrea Bargnani, Metta World Peace, J.R. Smith (resigned), Pablo Prigioni (resigned), Tim Hardaway Jr.

Key subtractions: Chris Copeland, Marcus Camby, Steve Novak

In the first major trade of the offseason, New York bewilderingly tossed in assets such as Steve Novak, Marcus Camby and even 3 picks (1 first round and 2 second round) for Andrea Bargnani, an underwhelming stretch big man with lousy defensive and rebounding skill. Bargnani should improve New York’s offense very marginally, especially since Steve Novak did basically the same thing at a much lower price. However, Bargnani can provide much more offensive output than Novak, while simultaneously relieving the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Raymond Felton and J.R. Smith.

But offense wasn’t really the problem last season. In fact, during the regular season, the Knicks ranked 3^rd in the league in offensive points per 100 possessions, trailing only Miami and Oklahoma City. In fact, when Felton, Chandler, and Anthony shared the floor last season, New York scored at a rate that would have lead the league. Defense was the main problem for the Knicks last year, as they ranked 17^th in the league in defensive points per possession. Part of this was due to Tyson Chandler’s injuries; Chandler played only 65 games last season, and was clearly in pain for a good amount of time he was actually on the floor. In previous years, lineups with Chandler as the defensive Anchor have stymied opposing offenses, but last year Chandler’s on court/off court stats were nearly identical. Presuming Chandler returns to full strength the Knicks should return to a top 10 defensive team. Metta World Peace will aid to the effort to create somewhat of a defensive identity in New York, something that has been missing for quite some time. A lineup of Felton, Shumpert, World Peace, Anthony and Chandler is quite intriguing due to its two-way versatility, and linups with Anthony at the 4 are almost certainly the way to play to maximize his effectiveness.

New York seemed to have solved most of its issues in the backcourt, as Prigioni and Smith will work to provide some depth for Felton and Shumpert. However, there’s somewhat of a logjam in the frontcourt as of right now, as Stoudemire and Bargnani don’t really seem to complement each other well, at least on paper. Working them into small linups with either big at the 5 could work in stretches, but having both of them share the floor would cause problems defensively. Even more concerning for Knicks fans is the outlook of this team going forward; these two players will soak up more than $32 million combined in 2013-2014, and New York will be capped out until at least the summer of 2015. Not to mention they also traded away the maximum number of first round draft picks they were allowed to until 2017, so they won’t be restocking fresh talent anytime soon. ¹ So yeah, way to go Knicks’ management.

Grade: C

Brooklyn Nets

Key additions: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry, Andrei Kirilenko, Shaun Livingston, Mason Plumlee

Key subtractions: Keith Bogans, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks

With nearly nothing to lose (considering his now +$100 million payroll only scrapes the surface of his overall net worth), Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov signed off on the most newsworthy transaction of the offseason, one that solidifies Boston’s desire to tank and will hopefully give the Nets the edge to win the division and perhaps even the eastern conference. I’ve already written about this here, so I won’t go into full detail, but more news has surfaced around this team regarding Kirilenko and Livingston which I’ll dive into.

The starting five is basically a given with Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez, however, the new additions to this bench makes Brooklyn a potential threat to contend in my mind. Kirilenko was one of the most undervalued free agents in the league this year, and is perhaps one of the most underestimated players in the entire league. He can do nearly everything you ask of him on the floor, and while his outside shot isn’t that great, he more than makes up for it with a great understanding of spacing and ball movement. Andrei is also a lockdown defender who can service as a small ball 4 for some stretches, and this gives Brooklyn incredible versatility with their bench units.

Perhaps just as promising will be Reggie Evans’ reduced role. Remember, Evans started 57 games for Brooklyn last year, WAY too many for a player with only one skill. Evans competes defensively, but should come off the bench for something under 20 minutes per game, a number very appropriate for someone of his skill level. Jason Terry will also provide a nice spark off the bench, and if Shaun Livingston can stay decently healthy, he could serve as a serviceable reserve for the Nets.

Again, I’m hesitant to call them a legitimate contender with a first year coach who was a player just last year, but Brooklyn has made all the right moves to fill out a balanced, deep, two-way roster. The bank may hurt for a couple years, but it’s clear that winning is the first thing on Prokhorov’s mind and he’s willing to overload to do it. ² Dumping future first round picks certainly shrinks this team’s championship window, but the Nets certainly have the talent to win lots of games at least this year.

Grade: B+

Boston WELPtics ³

Key additions: MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, Keith Bogans, Kelly Olynyk

Key subtractions: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry

Danny Ainge’s demolition of Boston’s roster assures the intention to completely rebuild, and given their former age and lack of durability, that seems to be the right idea. Again, I wrote about the implications of this trade for Boston here when I dissected this trade, but I’ll go ahead and give a little bit more detail in my reflection.

Boston will once again top the salary cap, this year by about $7 million. However, they will avoid paying the tax penalty which sets in around $70 million, since their cap figure as of right now is about $65 million. This is about the only good news as of right now for the Celtics, as the highest paid players on their roster are Rajon Rondo, Kris Humphries, and Gerald Wallace. The last two names most likely won’t get too much playing time this season anyway, especially as Danny Ainge waits for their contracts to expire. This will most likely be a test season for Boston, as recent first round draft picks Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, MarShon Brooks and Fab Melo will go through some growing pains to adjust to the pace of the NBA.

And that’s just fine. Boston will go through a major overhaul with a new roster and a new coach, and after what looks like a 25-or-so-win season, they will try to snag a top draft pick to lead them back to the top of the league.

Grade: B-

Philadelphia 76ers

Key additions: Nerlens Noel, Royce White, Michael Carter-Williams

Key subtractions: Jrue Holiday, Andrew Bynum, Dorell Wright

Philadelphia has a similar idea as Boston, and their approach is even more dramatic. The new CBA has placed a stronger emphasis on the value of having cap space and draft picks, as acquiring cheap, young talent has proved to be the most effective and efficient way to assemble a championship team, even if it takes a few years for said talent to develop.

And this is the exact route Philly’s new GM Sam Hinkie is taking. A draft day exchange of Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel the 6^th pick, and New Orleans’ 2014 first rounder depicts Hinkie’s perception that developing a raw, athletic talent such as Noel into what will hopefully become something along the lines of Tyson Chandler brings less risk than holding Jrue Holiday to be the savior of the franchise. The 2014 pick received from New Orleans is top 5 protected, meaning that if New Orleans receives one of the top 5 picks in the draft lottery next year, they will keep the pick rather than trading it to Philadelphia. However, most NBA experts including Hinkie are expecting New Orleans to well outperform a top 5 pick next year, and Philadelphia will take a few years to hoard a bunch of top first round picks (remember they have NOLA’s pick as well as their own pick next year which projects to be very high) and form their core this way.

This projects to be the most intriguing trade going forward: is trading Jrue Holiday, a very good point guard in my mind, for two high first round picks a more effective way to assemble a championship team? Or should Philly have kept Holiday and played the field for the next few years by hiring a coach to build around him? Only time will tell.

As of right now though, Philadelphia will be terrible next season, but they should have plenty of time to develop their young talent, and assess which pieces of the roster they should retain going forward. Nerlens Noel oozes potential as a defensive anchor, and Michael Carter Williams should at the very least become a productive role player, and in the best case an effective replacement of Jrue Holiday. The 76ers’ projected cap is just short of $37 million, which means they will have to add some contracts to reach the salary floor which is around $50 million.

Grade: B

Toronto Raptors

Key additions: Steve Novak, Tyler Hansbrough

Key subtractions: Andrea Bargnani, Linas Kleiza

The new wave of smart spending and overly analytic GMs is upon us, and perhaps one of the brightest young minds in the game is former Denver, now Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri. Ujiri will attempt to renovate a roster loaded with underperforming talent signed to bogus, head-scratching contracts. Rudy Gay ($18 million this season), Demar Derozan ($9.5 million this season), and Landry Fields ($5.225 million this season, $8.5 million the next) are 3 players signed by former GM Bryan Colangelo who unintentionally set this roster up for failure. It now appears that nearly everything on this roster could be expendable, especially the three names listed above. Toronto has already chipped away at their cap by ridding themselves of Andrea Bargnani through trade as well as Linas Kleiza through amnesty.

The Raptors certainly have some promising young talent on the roster, and Ujiri will carefully monitor the performances of Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, and even Kyle Lowry (a serviceable point guard on a dirt-cheap contract), to determine if they are pieces worth holding on to moving forward.

And after foolishly giving away their first round draft pick this year, Toronto will most likely look to hoard as many picks as possible in the upcoming years to build their roster around. The fate of Rudy Gay projects to be the most intriguing storyline in Toronto next year, as I would suspect that Ujiri would be more than willing to dump his huge contract and underperforming talent to a team with a big spending owner for future draft picks. Gay is a good small forward, but not a great one, and it’s not a coincidence that Memphis had their best year ever after pawning him off on Toronto.

It would be huge if Toronto could somehow dump Gay’s salary simply because it would allot them max cap room as soon as next summer. NBA free agents aren’t exactly clamoring to play basketball for the Raptors, but cap space is very valuable to save organization money while simultaneously giving them opportunity to fine-tune their roster and settle into a position to win. Toronto may not be good anytime soon, but they will slowly slide into a position to win with cap space, draft picks, and Ujiri at the helm.

Grade B

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1 The new CBA allows teams to only trade away their first round draft picks for every other year. For instance, New York has traded its 2014 and 2016 first rounders, and by the CBA rules they cannot trade their 2015 or 2017 picks. ^↩
2 This is terrific news for Nets fans; it’s extremely rare for an owner to prioritize team success over profit margins, and Prokhorov seems to be doing just that. Way to go.^↩
3 Yep, I went there^↩