Monday, July 29, 2013

Free Agency Review - Central Division

Alright, it’s time for part 2: the central division. Indiana and Chicago will most likely head this division once again, but Cleveland and even Detroit look to be putting themselves in position to compete for years to come. Here’s an overview of some of the major transactions each team made this summer, and the implications of those on their respective salary cap futures.

Indiana Pacers

Key additions: Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland, Solomon Hill
Key subtractions: D.J. Augustin, Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green
The Pacers had been on track to make a very decent splash in free agency after the initial signings of C.J. Watson and Chris Copeland. In addition to these nifty signings, Indiana exercised the clever decision to let D.J. Augustin and Tyler Hansbrough both walk in the offseason, and were expected to rely on the starting five from last year as well as an upgraded bench of Watson, Copeland, and a returning Granger to carry them past the Heat.
Long story short, this was a team prepared  to make a decent run at the top of the eastern conference, but still may have not had enough of a bench to overcome Miami. Until Larry Bird (team president) pulled the trigger on a move that brought Luis Scola to the current roster, that is. Scola significantly upgrades this team’s second unit, and gives the Pacers a big bench scorer who could give Miami (or any team) fits if they play small lineups against them. The trade sent Miles Plumlee, Gerald Green, and a 2014 first rounder1 to Phoenix for Scola, and while I’m not exactly sure if giving up Plumlee and a first rounder next year was the best decision, Phoenix GM Ryan McDonough is hoarding as much future talent as possible, and Indiana was very much in need of bench help. The Pacers are a win-now mode and will have to make the best of what they have on this current roster for years to come.
As far as the cap implications, Indiana played free agency nearly perfectly. They are capped out for this season, but still under the luxury tax threshold which is critical for a team not known for big spending. They have some crucial decision making to do next offseason when both Paul George and Danny Granger become free agents (Paul George restricted, Danny Granger unrestricted), but Paul George is expected to receive a max deal sometime given his recent performance2 and even if Granger proves to be too expensive to resign next year, Indiana could still survive if Solomon Hill develops into a decent roll player. Lance Stephenson is also on an expiring contract, so Indiana will have to make a decent run at him next offseason, and while they won’t be able to add any big names for the next couple of years due to being capped out, they should at least be able to still keep this current core intact.
Before acquiring Scola, I still would have ranked Miami at the top of the conference by just a hair. However, the current roster with a bench unit of Scola, Granger, and Watson should have enough talent to thrive even when the starters are off the floor. Let’s not forget, nearly everyone on this roster is still getting better, and the Pacers should be in prime position to win for the next few years barring injury.
Grade: A

Chicago Bulls

Key Additions: Tony Snell, Mike Dunleavy
Key Subtractions: Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli
The Bulls’ roster remains relatively unchanged even after free agency, which is a more than acceptable decision by the Chicago front office after last year’s team made a thrilling playoff run even after being decimated by injuries. Chicago’s future and potential for titles for the next four years will almost completely hinge on Derrick Rose’s health, as his max deal extends through the 2016-17 season. In addition to Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich were just a few players that sustained substantial injuries during at least a part of last season, and it will take a combination of luck and the careful massaging of minutes by Tom Thibodeau during the regular season to fashion a healthy roster and propel Chicago to the top of the conference.
Not much extra talent was required for this roster to be elite, but Chicago added a couple key components to their roster anyway by the way of Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell, and this could create some interesting floor spacing lineup combinations to pave the way to the rim for Derrick Rose. Chicago finished second to last in the league in 3pt attempts per game in the regular season, and Dunleavy will certainly help in that regard. He shot 43% from behind the arc last year, and is capable of playing either wing position which creates valuable versatility in Thibodeau’s offense. Tony Snell projects to be another solid wing for the Bulls as well, and will add athleticism and good shooting to a roster that will need it if injuries dismantle it once again.
Similar to the Pacers, Chicago has solidified their core for years to come, and while there are reports of action on the trade market involving Luol Deng or amnesty for Carlos Boozer, I don’t expect those moves to happen anytime soon. Thibs reportedly loves Deng, and values Boozer’s offensive contributions as well. Chicago will be an elite team for as long as they are able to keep this core together, however they are currently well above the luxury tax threshold and will eventually need to renounce the rights to some of their roster to avoid being repeat offenders3
Grade: A

Milwaukee Bucks

Key additions: Luke Ridnour, Zaza Pachulia, Carlos Delfino, O.J. Mayo, Gustavo Ayon, Giannis Antetokounmpo  
Key subtractions: JJ Redick, Monta Ellis, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Mike Dunleavy, Samuel Dalembert, Marquis Daniel, Drew Gooden
I about lost it when I saw the team slogan on Milwaukee’s ESPN NBA blog “8th seed or bust”, and they communicated their desire to continue to do just that for the next few years through their poor offseason management. My biggest gripe involving the Bucks was their decision in the handling of JJ Redick. After dealing for Redick for some much needed 3 point shooting last season to sneak into the final playoff spot, GM John Hammond bewilderingly rid him for two crappy second round draft picks a few months later. Remember, they gave Tobias Harris away (a young, budding talent) to receive Redick (and Ayon and Ish Smith) in return, and acquiring second round draft picks isn’t going to get you very far in the NBA.4
Okay, so they gave away JJ Redick for nearly nothing, but surely that’s the worst, right? Well... no. Seeing as there were hardly any wing players left on the roster after freeing Marquis Daniels and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Milwaukee, desperate for some wing depth, signed O.J. Mayo to a 3 year, $24 million deal. This wouldn’t be so bad if Mayo could split time with other guards, but as of right now he stands as the only shooting guard on this roster. Mayo serves as a decent rotation piece, but one that will barely upgrade this roster at all, especially considering he will play heavy minutes. Monta Ellis is finally gone, but Milwaukee simply let him walk rather than engaging in a sign and trade that could have significantly upgraded their future. And now the Bucks have a seven man logjam rotation of bigs, including Ayon, Sanders, Udoh, Pachulia, Ilyasova, Henson, and Antetokounmpo. This is bad within itself, but new coach Larry Drew must also avoid letting this buildup reduce Larry Sanders’ minutes, as Sanders, the most promising player on this roster, could absolutely develop into a top 5 center in the NBA within the next few years.
And we haven’t even addressed the most crucial decision the Bucks face this offseason: the Brandon Jennings decision. Coach Nick did a terrific breakdown that confirmed my initial perception of his talent (or lack thereof), but I’ll go ahead and give some more of my thoughts here. As of right now, Jennings, due for a contract extension as his rookie deal expires after next year, is reportedly requesting an extension worth $12 million per year for 4 years, while the Bucks will only budge to around $8 or $9 mil. Personally, I would commit neither if I were general manager John Hammond. I like that Milwaukee continues to hold out on this extension, rather than giving into Jennings’ desires. To me, he’s a hot-head, high volume shooter with low efficiency who thinks he is much better than he is (hence asking for $12 million/year). There’s a reason Jennings, a restricted free agent this summer, hasn’t received any attention from other teams, and Milwaukee basically has 3 options here. They could give into Jennings desire for a $12 million/year deal, they could not budge and hope he accepts a multi-year deal worth less money, or, if the sides fail to reach a contractual agreement, they could resort to the one-year qualifying offer of $4.5 million for this season knowing Jennings will most likely leave Milwaukee next offseason through unrestricted free agency.5 6
Even losing Jennings wouldn’t damage Milwaukee much in the future, there are plenty of quality point guards in the NBA, and the Bucks will have plenty of cap room next offseason to make a significant splash. As for right now however, it’s still 8th seed or bust.
Grade: D (The Jennings decision could make this better or worse)

Detroit Pistons

Key additions: Josh Smith, Chauncey Billups, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Key subtractions: Corey Maggette, Jason Maxiell, Jose Calderon
The Pistons were in a very envious position. Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, and now Kentavious Caldwell-Pope looked to be a solid, fundamental core to build around for the upcoming years.
And then Josh Smith happened.
Look, I understand the buzz around Smith, he’s everything but a superstar, a player with one major, and easily fixable flaw (shot selection) who encompasses everything you want in a teammate going forward. But the obvious and most intriguing dilemma new coach Maurice Cheeks faces is the issue of spacing, not only because these three sharing the floor can’t shoot, but the Pistons simply have few reliable deep shooters on their entire roster. Smith will enhance the versatility of the rotations being able to play the 3 and 4, which could brace Detroit if the roster suffered significant injuries. He’s a terrific passer and a terrific teammate who brings defensive intensity every night and is a terror in the transition game. There’s no question he’s worth his 4 year $54 million contract.
But for this team, this roster, and this situation? Smith would have been much better suited to sign on with a contender, and while I understand most contenders may have not had the cap room he had requested, I’m not sure Detroit is the right place for him anyway. Drummond, Monroe, Caldwell-Pope, and even Brandon Knight composed a young core with potential to grow into a powerhouse within a few years, and Smith gives them help now when they should probably prefer it later. This move brings Detroit within playoff proximity next season, but by the time Drummond and Monroe reach their primes, Smith will already have reached the back end of his career.
The other situation with this roster regards the point guard position, and I am absolutely certain that Pistons GM Joe Dumars should have used the money spent on Smith to beef up the point guard position. Players such as Luke Ridnour, Jose Calderon, and Eric Maynor all switched teams this offseason, and all of these names would have solved this point guard dilemma as well as saved money. Unfortunately the point guard rotation now consists of Will Bynum, Rodney Stuckey, Brandon Knight, and Chauncey Billups. Billups is the most likely to start, but he’s old, and this could also restrain Brandon Knight from fully developing. However, Knight isn’t qualified to be a starting point guard as of right now anyway, and very well may never be, Will Bynum has been awful unless he’s paired with Drummond, and Stuckey isn’t even a pure point guard.
I could stand completely wrong in a few years if Smith actually integrates smoothly into the operations of this roster, and he could bring a strong leadership presence to the locker room to better effectively develop Drummond and Monroe. But the new CBA favors teams that stay young and under the cap, and I doubt his intangible contributions will outweigh his hindrances of this young core.
Grade: C

Cleveland Cavaliers

Key additions: Anthony Bennett, Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack, Earl Clark
Key subtractions: Daniel Gibson, Luke Walton, Marresse Speights, Shaun Livingston
The Cavs made one of the most newsworthy splashes in free agency this offseason, signing Andrew Bynum to a 2 year, $24 million contract. It sounds unfavorable on the surface, but when digging into the details of the contract terms, it is discovered that only $6 million of that money is actually guaranteed, as Bynum has to meet deadlines by avoiding being waved due to his health. It’s an incredible deal for both sides, and considering Bynum’s health reputation it may have been an even bigger steal for him and his destructive knees.
Basically, a completely healthy Cavs team sets up to be a championship contender without a doubt; Kyrie is in full force, Thompson has developed into a multifaceted role player, Andrew Bynum can be a top 10 player when engaged, and Varejao is a defensive stalwart and had a monstrous rebounding season last year before going down with injury.
Unfortunately, however, the word “healthy” doesn’t exist in Cleveland dictionaries. Kyrie has had numerous setbacks over the past few years, Varejao is never ever ever ever healthy, and Bynum missed all of last season. And that has to make the future murky for Cleveland GM Chris Grant. Cleveland has a heap of crucial decisions to make next offseason. Irving and Thompson will both be due for contract extensions, Bynum will either be renounced or signed to the second half of his deal, and Varejao is under a team option worth nearly $10 million which all raise lots of questions. It sounds silly, but does Kyrie acquire a max deal if he again misses significant time this season? How much is Tristan Thompson worth? Are you going to risk $10 million on a fragile Varejao?
Those are all questions for next offseason, but as far as this offseason goes, the Cavs performed very well. There’s only so much you can do with an injury prone roster, but only time will tell if this core can prove healthy enough to make it far. Jarrett Jack and Earl Clark beef up the bench significantly, and we will be closely monitoring the performances and health of Irving, Bynum and the rest of the Cavs this winter. And even if some of these players become restrained by health issues, Cleveland will have loads of cap room as soon as next year, and plenty of team options to rid themselves of injury prone players.
Grade: B+


1 The 2014 pick from Indiana is protected (to which degree it hasn’t been revealed yet, but that’s unlikely to matter considering Indiana’s pick will most likely be in the high 20s next year anyway.
2 And all this talk about him going to LA? Forget about it. The new CBA gives a current team substantial leverage to retain their restricted free agents, and if the Pacers want to keep George, which they do, then they will.
3 Repeat offenders of the luxury tax (set at around $70 or $71 million) pay significantly more over time than non-repeat offenders. See here for more.
4 What makes it even worse was that these second rounders are protected, which means they will most likely be at the very end of the draft. Shameful
5 Jennings reportedly wants out of Milwaukee anyway; this could be a win-win.
6 The qualifying offer is absolutely the route I would take if I were Milwaukee. Look, this guy has almost reached his ceiling, he’s not good, and he doesn’t want to be there anyway, why sign him to a multi-year deal? Take Jennings for the cheap $4.5 million this season, let him walk next year, find some way to draft a point guard in the draft, and live with Ridnour as your starting PG the next year while you wait for your draft pick to develop. Some Bucks fans claim the qualifying offer should be the last resort in this scenario because Jennings will bitch about it all season and not play as motivated. WHO CARES?! It’s not like you’re going places this season anyway! Sheesh.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Free Agency Review – Atlantic Division

Free Agency Review – Atlantic Division

This is the first part of a 6 part series that will grade each team’s performance in this year’s free agency market. The Atlantic Division will be the first to be dissected, and although most teams haven’t filled out their rosters entirely, they will soon enough, especially by the time I finish breaking down all 30 teams. The first is the Atlantic Division, let’s go.

New York Knicks

Key additions: Andrea Bargnani, Metta World Peace, J.R. Smith (resigned), Pablo Prigioni (resigned), Tim Hardaway Jr.
Key subtractions: Chris Copeland, Marcus Camby, Steve Novak
In the first major trade of the offseason, New York bewilderingly tossed in assets such as Steve Novak, Marcus Camby and even 3 picks (1 first round and 2 second round) for Andrea Bargnani, an underwhelming stretch big man with lousy defensive and rebounding skill. Bargnani should improve New York’s offense very marginally, especially since Steve Novak did basically the same thing at a much lower price. However, Bargnani can provide much more offensive output than Novak, while simultaneously relieving the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Raymond Felton and J.R. Smith.
But offense wasn’t really the problem last season. In fact, during the regular season, the Knicks ranked 3rd in the league in offensive points per 100 possessions, trailing only Miami and Oklahoma City. In fact, when Felton, Chandler, and Anthony shared the floor last season, New York scored at a rate that would have lead the league. Defense was the main problem for the Knicks last year, as they ranked 17th in the league in defensive points per possession. Part of this was due to Tyson Chandler’s injuries; Chandler played only 65 games last season, and was clearly in pain for a good amount of time he was actually on the floor. In previous years, lineups with Chandler as the defensive Anchor have stymied opposing offenses, but last year Chandler’s on court/off court stats were nearly identical. Presuming Chandler returns to full strength the Knicks should return to a top 10 defensive team. Metta World Peace will aid to the effort to create somewhat of a defensive identity in New York, something that has been missing for quite some time. A lineup of Felton, Shumpert, World Peace, Anthony and Chandler is quite intriguing due to its two-way versatility, and linups with Anthony at the 4 are almost certainly the way to play to maximize his effectiveness.
New York seemed to have solved most of its issues in the backcourt, as Prigioni and Smith will work to provide some depth for Felton and Shumpert. However, there’s somewhat of a logjam in the frontcourt as of right now, as Stoudemire and Bargnani don’t really seem to complement each other well, at least on paper. Working them into small linups with either big at the 5 could work in stretches, but having both of them share the floor would cause problems defensively. Even more concerning for Knicks fans is the outlook of this team going forward; these two players will soak up more than $32 million combined in 2013-2014, and New York will be capped out until at least the summer of 2015. Not to mention they also traded away the maximum number of first round draft picks they were allowed to until 2017, so they won’t be restocking fresh talent anytime soon. 1 So yeah, way to go Knicks’ management.
Grade: C

Brooklyn Nets

Key additions: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry, Andrei Kirilenko, Shaun Livingston, Mason Plumlee
Key subtractions: Keith Bogans, Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks
With nearly nothing to lose (considering his now +$100 million payroll only scrapes the surface of his overall net worth), Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov signed off on the most newsworthy transaction of the offseason, one that solidifies Boston’s desire to tank and will hopefully give the Nets the edge to win the division and perhaps even the eastern conference. I’ve already written about this here, so I won’t go into full detail, but more news has surfaced around this team regarding Kirilenko and Livingston which I’ll dive into.
The starting five is basically a given with Williams, Johnson, Pierce, Garnett, and Lopez, however, the new additions to this bench makes Brooklyn a potential threat to contend in my mind. Kirilenko was one of the most undervalued free agents in the league this year, and is perhaps one of the most underestimated players in the entire league. He can do nearly everything you ask of him on the floor, and while his outside shot isn’t that great, he more than makes up for it with a great understanding of spacing and ball movement. Andrei is also a lockdown defender who can service as a small ball 4 for some stretches, and this gives Brooklyn incredible versatility with their bench units.
Perhaps just as promising will be Reggie Evans’ reduced role. Remember, Evans started 57 games for Brooklyn last year, WAY too many for a player with only one skill. Evans competes defensively, but should come off the bench for something under 20 minutes per game, a number very appropriate for someone of his skill level. Jason Terry will also provide a nice spark off the bench, and if Shaun Livingston can stay decently healthy, he could serve as a serviceable reserve for the Nets.
Again, I’m hesitant to call them a legitimate contender with a first year coach who was a player just last year, but Brooklyn has made all the right moves to fill out a balanced, deep, two-way roster. The bank may hurt for a couple years, but it’s clear that winning is the first thing on Prokhorov’s mind and he’s willing to overload to do it. 2 Dumping future first round picks certainly shrinks this team’s championship window, but the Nets certainly have the talent to win lots of games at least this year.
Grade: B+

Boston WELPtics 3

Key additions: MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, Keith Bogans, Kelly Olynyk
Key subtractions: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry
Danny Ainge’s demolition of Boston’s roster assures the intention to completely rebuild, and given their former age and lack of durability, that seems to be the right idea. Again, I wrote about the implications of this trade for Boston here when I dissected this trade, but I’ll go ahead and give a little bit more detail in my reflection.
Boston will once again top the salary cap, this year by about $7 million. However, they will avoid paying the tax penalty which sets in around $70 million, since their cap figure as of right now is about $65 million. This is about the only good news as of right now for the Celtics, as the highest paid players on their roster are Rajon Rondo, Kris Humphries, and Gerald Wallace. The last two names most likely won’t get too much playing time this season anyway, especially as Danny Ainge waits for their contracts to expire. This will most likely be a test season for Boston, as recent first round draft picks Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, MarShon Brooks and Fab Melo will go through some growing pains to adjust to the pace of the NBA.
And that’s just fine. Boston will go through a major overhaul with a new roster and a new coach, and after what looks like a 25-or-so-win season, they will try to snag a top draft pick to lead them back to the top of the league.
Grade: B-

Philadelphia 76ers

Key additions: Nerlens Noel, Royce White, Michael Carter-Williams
Key subtractions: Jrue Holiday, Andrew Bynum, Dorell Wright
Philadelphia has a similar idea as Boston, and their approach is even more dramatic. The new CBA has placed a stronger emphasis on the value of having cap space and draft picks, as acquiring cheap, young talent has proved to be the most effective and efficient way to assemble a championship team, even if it takes a few years for said talent to develop.
And this is the exact route Philly’s new GM Sam Hinkie is taking. A draft day exchange of Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel the 6th pick, and New Orleans’ 2014 first rounder depicts Hinkie’s perception that developing a raw, athletic talent such as Noel into what will hopefully become something along the lines of Tyson Chandler brings less risk than holding Jrue Holiday to be the savior of the franchise. The 2014 pick received from New Orleans is top 5 protected, meaning that if New Orleans receives one of the top 5 picks in the draft lottery next year, they will keep the pick rather than trading it to Philadelphia. However, most NBA experts including Hinkie are expecting New Orleans to well outperform a top 5 pick next year, and Philadelphia will take a few years to hoard a bunch of top first round picks (remember they have NOLA’s pick as well as their own pick next year which projects to be very high) and form their core this way.
This projects to be the most intriguing trade going forward: is trading Jrue Holiday, a very good point guard in my mind, for two high first round picks a more effective way to assemble a championship team? Or should Philly have kept Holiday and played the field for the next few years by hiring a coach to build around him? Only time will tell.
As of right now though, Philadelphia will be terrible next season, but they should have plenty of time to develop their young talent, and assess which pieces of the roster they should retain going forward. Nerlens Noel oozes potential as a defensive anchor, and Michael Carter Williams should at the very least become a productive role player, and in the best case an effective replacement of Jrue Holiday. The 76ers’ projected cap is just short of $37 million, which means they will have to add some contracts to reach the salary floor which is around $50 million.
Grade: B

Toronto Raptors

Key additions: Steve Novak, Tyler Hansbrough
Key subtractions: Andrea Bargnani, Linas Kleiza
The new wave of smart spending and overly analytic GMs is upon us, and perhaps one of the brightest young minds in the game is former Denver, now Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri. Ujiri will attempt to renovate a roster loaded with underperforming talent signed to bogus, head-scratching contracts. Rudy Gay ($18 million this season), Demar Derozan ($9.5 million this season), and Landry Fields ($5.225 million this season, $8.5 million the next) are 3 players signed by former GM Bryan Colangelo who unintentionally set this roster up for failure. It now appears that nearly everything on this roster could be expendable, especially the three names listed above. Toronto has already chipped away at their cap by ridding themselves of Andrea Bargnani through trade as well as Linas Kleiza through amnesty.
The Raptors certainly have some promising young talent on the roster, and Ujiri will carefully monitor the performances of Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, and even Kyle Lowry (a serviceable point guard on a dirt-cheap contract), to determine if they are pieces worth holding on to moving forward.
And after foolishly giving away their first round draft pick this year, Toronto will most likely look to hoard as many picks as possible in the upcoming years to build their roster around. The fate of Rudy Gay projects to be the most intriguing storyline in Toronto next year, as I would suspect that Ujiri would be more than willing to dump his huge contract and underperforming talent to a team with a big spending owner for future draft picks. Gay is a good small forward, but not a great one, and it’s not a coincidence that Memphis had their best year ever after pawning him off on Toronto.
It would be huge if Toronto could somehow dump Gay’s salary simply because it would allot them max cap room as soon as next summer. NBA free agents aren’t exactly clamoring to play basketball for the Raptors, but cap space is very valuable to save organization money while simultaneously giving them opportunity to fine-tune their roster and settle into a position to win. Toronto may not be good anytime soon, but they will slowly slide into a position to win with cap space, draft picks, and Ujiri at the helm.
Grade B


1 The new CBA allows teams to only trade away their first round draft picks for every other year. For instance, New York has traded its 2014 and 2016 first rounders, and by the CBA rules they cannot trade their 2015 or 2017 picks.
2 This is terrific news for Nets fans; it’s extremely rare for an owner to prioritize team success over profit margins, and Prokhorov seems to be doing just that. Way to go.
3 Yep, I went there