Miami
Heat
Key
additions: None
Key
subtractions: Mike Miller
The Heat
have made the decision to stand their ground over the offseason, and will
continue to place their trust in the big 3, more specifically LeBron’s
dominance and Dwyane Wade’s knees. Miami finished last season with the top
offense and the 7th ranked
defense in terms of points per possession, so they really don’t need upgrades
in any position.
And
that’s a good thing because they are well over the cap and luxury tax line.
This is to be expected when three of the best players in the world are
absorbing most of the space on your books, but it could become a problem if the
Heat sputter a little bit this year and/or other teams begin to catch up.
Indiana has made significant strides through free agency, and all bets are off
once Derrick Rose returns from injury assuming he is at 100%.
Miami
will still be good though, of course; LeBron is still the best player in the
world and showing no signs of stopping here. Bench units will not contain Mike
Miller any longer, as he has moved on to Memphis after the use of the amnesty
provision, but his contributions should be replicated relatively easy,
especially with the sudden emergence of Chris Bosh as a legitimate three point
threat. The offensive structure should remain relatively unchanged: lots of
transition with LeBron the focal point of the offense and three point shooters
spacing around the perimeter.
Looking
forward to the future, though, things start to get interesting. As stated
earlier, Miami was already capped out for this summer, so few moves were
actually possible to significantly upgrade the roster. However, every member of
the Big 3 will be handed a player offer by the team next year, meaning they can
opt out of the final two years that technically finish out their contract to
join on to another team through free agency. The Heat are fine for now 1 , but if something catastrophic happens
this year, and the big 3 split up (LeBron back to Cleveland? That’d be cool),
Miami will be forced to starting from ground zero. As of now however, if you
have the best player in the world on your roster, you’re a title contender.
Grade: A-
Atlanta
Hawks
Key
additions: Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon, Elton Brand, DaMarre Carroll, Lucas
Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder
Key
subtractions: Devin Harris, Ivan Johnson, Dahntay Jones, Zaza Pachulia, Johan
Petro, Josh Smith, Anthony Tolliver
Atlanta,
the most boring team in the entire NBA in my opinion, will somehow return to
playoff action again next spring most likely. As far as the discussion for the
most recent successful franchises in the league, the Hawks are somewhere above
the Bucks but below the more talented teams: stuck with an average playoff seed
year after year and consistently suffering an early exit.
Atlanta
actually took a decent swing at Dwight Howard, trying to lure him to play in
his hometown with their awful stadium sounds and unsupportive fan base. This
was pretty much their only shot at rising to true contention, and while it was
a decent effort, Atlanta still wound up around 4thor
5th in the
Dwight Howard sweepstakes.
They did
make some quality moves, however. Atlanta got away with highway robbery for
Paul Millsap, a vastly underrated multidimensional talent who is very skilled
offensively. Millsap is effective everywhere on the floor out to almost the
three point arc, and his unselfishness should complement Al Horford very well
when forming a 1-2 punch. The Hawks also signed Elton Brand and his massive
wingspan to be a very quality 3rd
big that can play either the 4 or the 5. Kyle Korver brings shooting on a
favorable contract, and they also signed two talented rookies in the first
round of the draft. Lucas Nogueira will most likely be stashed in Spain for at
least one more year in hopes that he can develop into a Sam Dalembert type rim
protector. Dennis Schroder looks tremendously promising, some scouts
prematurely claiming he could develop into an All-Star, and he’s already
drawing Rajon Rondo/Tony Parker comparisons (fitting considering those two were
selected late in the first round as well).
The most
noteworthy offseason decision Atlanta faced, however, regarded the resigning of
Jeff Teague, a good but not great point guard in the league’s most stacked
position. Teague was initially signed to an offer sheet by Milwaukee (he was a
restricted free agent), which was then matched by Atlanta. It’s clear that
Atlanta wanted to keep Teague in their system, but at what price it is not certain
because the Hawks were forced to match Milwaukee’s 4 year $32 million offer to
retain him. His price seems about fair considering this season he’ll make what
is smack dab in between what Kyle Lowry ($6.21 million) and Ty Lawson ($10.786
million) will make in 2013-2014. I would rank Teague somewhere in between those
two players talent wise, and while he’s most likely already reached his
potential, he’s a solid point guard going forward and the Hawks will try to
build their roster at other positions to form a capable nucleus.
But
“capable” is really the best Atlanta will be, unless they somehow nab a
franchise changer. A core of Teague, Horford, and Millsap will be similar
talent wise to what Utah has had for the past few years, and they haven’t
really made much noise in the playoffs as of late. In fact, if the Hawks
continue to suffer first round exits, they may eventually have to replicate
what Utah is doing this year and build around some younger talent unless they
can nab a big name in free agency. Atlanta does have some youthful talent on
their roster from recent drafts (Cunningham, Noguiera, Schroeder, and Jenkins),
and they are banking on the hope that these guys can become talented
contributors.
As far as
their cap situation, Atlanta has decent flexibility looking forward to the
future, but probably not quite enough for a max contract next year unless
there’s a significant team option declination. Atlanta hasn’t had much luck in
the way of attracting free agents either, at least as of late, and that could
be their downfall which really is unfortunate. The Hawks are one superstar away
from competing for a title, but the same can also be said for a large handful
of other teams around the league.
Again, a
returning Lou Williams will aid this nothing more than solid core, and Atlanta
could sneak into the second round of the playoffs within the next few years if
their opponent suffers an injury or one of the Hawks over performs, but what we
see today looks like the best it’s ever going to be: the Hawks will continue to
be unbearably boring.
Grade: B
Washington
Wizards
Key
additions: Eric Maynor, Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.
Key
subtractions: Leandro Barbosa, Jason Collins
The most
critical decision Washington faced over the offseason was the decision
regarding the resigning of John Wall. Wall’s rookie deal expires next year as
he will enter into restricted free agency, so the Wizards have the opportunity
to sign him to a max deal now or later.
Washington
has opted to give Wall the max deal now rather than later to avoid at all costs
any hint of free agency, even if they would likely retain him next summer
anyway. Some have argued Washington should have held out to ensure he has a
healthy season this year, but it’s clear Wizards management values him as their
key building block going forward. Wall will be on the books for the next 5
years, receiving $80 million over that time period.
In my
mind this is a good decision. I may have waited to extend him after next summer
after watching him improve this year, but it’s not the most risky move in the
world to extend him now either. Wall absolutely possesses the potential to be
one of the top point guards in the league, and while he struggled earlier in
the year, he really elevated his level of play late last season. Perhaps an
even more promising element to Wall’s game was his on court success when paired
with Bradley Beal. The Wizards posted a net rating of +8.8 points per 100 possessions
when the duo shared the court according to NBA.com, the second best two man
lineup on the Wizards’ roster. Wall pulled up his efficiency on long 2s from
“bad” to “acceptable” last year, and his field goal percentage was raised from
the last two seasons to around league average (a good number for a high volume
shooter who also gets to the line often).2
It’s
clear he’s the centerpiece of Washington’s future, and the Wizards will
continually seek out talent to build around Wall for the future. Martell
Webster netted a 4 year, $22 million contract from the Wiz, and while some
viewed this as a slight overpay, athletic wings who can shoot and defend are
extremely valuable, especially with someone like Wall to continually get them
quality looks. Webster won’t be that old at the end of this contract (30), and
he shot a career high on 3s last year in both attempts (4.3/game) and
percentage (42%). Eric Maynor should handle running the second unit when Wall
rests on the bench or misses a few games due to injury and his 2 year $4
million contract is very favorable for Washington.
I like
what the Wizards have done here. Otto Porter projects to be a solid rotation
piece going forward and they should have enough talent to sneak into a playoff
spot this year provided Wall stays healthy. Better yet, the gargantuan
contracts of Okafor and Ariza (Okafor mainly) both expire after this season
which would net Washington near max cap room even after the Wall extension.
Grade: B
Charlotte
Bobcats
Key
additions: Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller
Key
subtractions: Gana Diop, Reggie Williams, Byron Mullens
The
Charlotte Bobcats made the biggest news their franchise has made in a long time
by signing Al Jefferson to a 3 year $40 million dollar contract that contains a
player option for year 3. It was a move that honored them national attention
for the first time in a while.
I have
done a ton of reading on this move (especially Bobcats blogs), and I still have
no idea what to think of it. Let me first throw this out there: I have never
been a devout fan of a franchise that has consistently underperformed to the
degree that Charlotte has for the past few seasons (no Chiefs jokes here
please). Lots of Bobcats fans rejoiced at this decision, even though they still
knew this roster stood far away from the running for a playoff spot. In fact,
nearly all of the writers and fans at www.rufusonfire.com
liked the move in one way or another. It was intended to bring a veteran with
strong leadership experience to the roster, and a player that could ease the
scoring burden from other players and significantly improve team rebounding. Al
will do that just fine, however, will he significantly aid in the effort to
attract big name free agents to Charlotte?
This is a
good move, but I’m not sure it’s at the right time or place. Sure, it will make
the Bobcats watchable and competitive this season, but I’m not sure if it
actually improves the team’s chances of winning a championship (don’t laugh,
that’s every team’s goal) going forward. With what is likely to be one of the
best drafts ever upcoming next June, is it much more painful to withstand
another losing season in hopes of achieving a top 5 pick rather than signing a
player who possesses just enough talent to possibly escape a high lottery pick?
Apparently
that answer was yes, and so here we stand: a youthful roster with some
potential to grow into something promising, and a 28 year old veteran who will
help the Bobcats bring it every night and give them a charismatic locker room
presence. The selection of Cody Zeller at the 4thpick
in the draft continued the trend of Charlotte’s risky draft selection within
the past few years, but a lot of writers think he can be a valuable piece going
forward. Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are continually developing as
well.
Charlotte
also remained determined to retain Gerald Henderson, a restricted free agent
this summer, by signing him to a 3 year $18 million dollar deal. Henderson
would have seen much more money if he had proven himself as a more reliable
long distance shooter over the past few years, but Charlotte signed him to a
very reasonable deal, and he has plenty of value through other forms of offense
and on defense. The spacing will suffer with him on the floor, but Henderson
tore it up at the end of last season, and if he can develop his 3 point shot (unlikely,
although it has slowly improved over the past few years) he could be a decent
value at this price.
A core of
Andrew Wiggins, Walker, MKG, and Zeller going forward is much more appealing in
my eyes than one with Jefferson in place of Wiggins3 , but the Bobcats will be watchable
next year, and that’s very important to a starved fan base. They will also have
max cap room next summer after Ben Gordon’s ridiculous contract expires, and
the organization is banking on big Al making Charlotte an attractive
destination when that time comes.
Grade: C+
Orlando
Magic
Key
additions: Jason Maxiell, Victor Oladipo
Key
subtractions: Beno Udrih
The
Magic, after accumulating assets such as Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Maurice
Harkless, and Andrew Nicholson through previous drafts, have made little noise
during this offseason. Vucevic proved to be the piece that claimed Orlando as
the unforeseen winners in the
Dwight Howard trade, and the franchise will continue to build around him. They
will be bad again this year, but unlike Charlotte they will patiently wait for
quality pieces to become available while building the team through the draft in
the meantime. Oladipo has been considered by some to be a favorite to win the
rookie of the year award, and the management will inspect each piece of the
roster this season (especially the young guns) to determine their future with
the organization.
Again,
this team will be very bad this year, but Orlando has in their favor both a
stacked upcoming draft and max contract room next summer with no bad contracts
on their roster. Aaron Afflalo might (and should, in my opinion) be traded
sometime soon for younger talent and/or draft picks, and Hedo Turkaglu is on an
expiring contract.
The Jason
Maxiell signing was the only major offseason acquisition other than the Oladipo
draft pick, and his contract is very favorable at 2 year $5 million.Maxiell
will provide a terrific locker room presence with his NBA experience, even if
he’s not a terrific basketball player.
Again,
this will most likely be a boring season for Magic fans, but there is some quality,
young talent on this roster, and after this year Orlando may return to
relevancy.
Grade: B
1 As Zach Lowe pointed out, the use of the amnesty provision on Mike Miller pulled Miami’s total salary below the next luxury tax level. You can read about that here, but basically, before using amnesty on Miller, Miami was in the 4th incremental tax bracket. Miller’s amnesty brought them down to the 3rd tier which saved a lot of money in the luxury tax system↩
2 For comparison, Wall actually shot more times per 40 minutes adjusted than James Harden and recorded a higher field goal percentage.↩
3 Again, Charlotte will be bad this year, but I’m not sure they could be bad enough to secure a top 5 pick. Philadelphia, Boston, Phoenix, Orlando, and Utah will all be terrible and probably worse.↩
No comments:
Post a Comment