Free Agency Part 4 - Northwest Division

It’s time for part 4 of 6 where I will begin to grade the offseason performances of the Western Conference teams. The first stop is the northwest division, and perhaps what was the conference’s toughest division a few years back may not be any more with the worsening of the Jazz and Nuggets. Let’s dive in.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Key Additions: Steven Adams, Andre Roberson

Key Subtractions: Kevin Martin, Ronnie Brewer

To be honest, when 2 of the best 10 players in the world are on your books for the next 3 years, there’s really not much else to be constructed, especially when you’re sitting around $10 million above the salary cap. But is there anyway the Thunder could have performed better over the offseason than this?

Well, not really, at least with Kendrick Perkins' massive contract on the books for the next two years. The Thunder will dump over $17 million on Perkins overthe next two seasons, and given OKC’s cheapskate attitude and Sam Presti’s unexplainable love for Perkins, it’s unlikely that he’s ever waived through the use of the amnesty provision. The Perkins amnesty situation been covered by multiple sources, but I’ll try to explain it the best I can if you haven’t been able to understand it before now:

-          As of right now, OKC sits a hair below the luxury tax line. The tax comes into effect for teams with a payroll exceeding $71.7 million, and the Thunder are currently around $70 million (and will go to the most extreme measures to duck the tax).

-          The amnesty of Perkins would remove him from their payroll, which would settle to around $61 million, but this number is still above the salary cap value set at $58 million this season.

-          So the only way the Thunder could have signed a player to replace Perkins would have been through the use of the midlevel exception which is about $5 million per year.

-          Also remember, they would have had to still pay Perkins his original salary, so by shelling out the midlevel exception in addition to Perkins' original salary, OKC is tossing away about $14 million per year ($9 mil for Perk's salary and $5 for the midlevel) to replace Perkins with a 'decent' player.

Granted, I still would have liked to see the Thunder replace Perkins with someone like Zaza Pachulia (just signed a 3 year $15.6 million contract with the Bucks), or Kosta Koufos (2 yr $6 million contract with the Grizzlies), but as pointed out before, Presti is banking on Perkins’ “leadership” and “locker room presence”, and the likelihood that Perk can redeem himself of his spectacularly awful performance in last year’s playoffs. Plus there’s no way Clay Bennett wants to dump almost $30 million for mid-tier center over two years, and so Perkins it is. This isn’t terrible news for Thunder fans; I still believe Perkins has potential to be somewhat of a defensive anchor despite his deficiencies last year simply because of his experience and basketball IQ.

But the Thunder will need more help offensively, especially in the way of spacing, considering Perkins is such a minus he can’t even really finish shots at the rim: the one offensive skill a big should possess over anything else. Westbrook and Durant will still carry this offense as usual, but if either misses significant time it will restrict this otherwise very good offense. The failure to sign Mike Miller was very frustrating for the Thunder front office as well, as he would have brought  much needed shooting and depth to an OKC bench for a dirt cheap price.

Still, it would be foolish to say that this team isn’t in a place to compete: they absolutely are. Having two of the best players in the world on your roster will win you games in the NBA, and barring significant injury OKC will be good, perhaps 60 win good, once again. But to put them over the top they will need rapid improvement from Jeremy Lamb and Kendrick Perkins, and given their offseason inactivity, that seems to have been the idea Oklahoma City’s front office has been banking on all along.

Grade: B-

Denver Nuggets

Key additions: Nate Robinson, J.J. Hickson, Darrell Arthur

Key subtractions: Andre Iguodala, Kosta Koufos, Corey Brewer

The Nuggets underwent a head scratching makeover this offseason to say the least. After last year’s aggressive free agency period involving the acquisition of Andre Iguodala and later their ascension to 3^rd place in the conference, Denver gave away its best player, failed to resign George Karl (the 2013 coach of the year), and let one of the league’s most respected GMs flee for Toronto. After recording the league’s 5^th best offense in 2012-13, the Nuggets, despite having significant leverage to retain Iguodala because of his bird rights, failed to sign him to an extension. Iguodala, the catalyst in last year's up-tempo offense and defensive anchor to a defense that failed miserably when he was off the court, walked for practically nothing in return. The same is true for the coach and GM positions as well; George Karl has been consistently respected and recognized as one of the best coaches in the league, and former GM Masai Ujiri is one of the brightest league minds.

Now Denver will rely on Nate Robinson for significant scoring output, half a season of Danillo Gallinari, and a Javale McGee/Timofey Mozgov duo to protect the rim. This is not a recipe for success in any sense of the word, and while Denver does have a significant home court advantage, I still think this organization is way too much disarray to succeed. I’m not sure that they've been completely  shoved out of the playoff race, but I honestly wouldn’t doubt it, as this team has gone from a legitimate playoff contender to the Bucks of the west.

The worst part about this situation is Denver’s cap position. This team recognized its potential to become a powerhouse last offseason by signing Ty Lawson to a 4 year extension, yet unexplainably underwent somewhat of a rebuilding (?) phase this offseason. However, the problem lies more in the contracts Denver added to build for the future in the previous years, including Lawson, McGee, and Gallinari. The Nuggets will sit well over the cap for the next two seasons, and won’t have much room in the third year either. This means no significant free agent signings barring a trade, and between Lawson, McGee and Gallinari, I don’t really see any tradable contracts besides maybe Gallinari. I have no idea what’s going on here.

Grade: D

Utah Jazz

Key additions: Trey Burke, Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush, Rudy Gobert

Key subtractions: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mo Williams

Unlike Denver, Utah actually seems to have mapped out a plan for the future of the franchise, and that plan is to enter full rebuilding mode at a very good time. The Jazz will be bad next year, very bad, but they have done a noteworthy job of amassing young talent through the draft over the past few years, and will look for said talent to lead them going forward rather than the veterans of their previous roster. Plus they could be bad enough to secure a top 5 pick next year, and the current core paired with a potential superstar from next year’s draft could become a powerhouse over the next half decade.

The decision to let Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson, two staples of the Jazz franchise over the past few years, walk in free agency was crucial here. Their backups, Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, should have enough experience to start games, and while it won’t be the most experienced front line, they certainly have potential to develop into a very good front court going forward. And that’s exactly what this season will be: an experiment and long drag of scouting and dissecting their new, young talent. Trey Burke, Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, and Gordon Hayward will inserted into an array of lineup combinations to properly determine which players deserve contract extensions going forward.

The most noteworthy transaction Utah made over the offseason, however, was the decision to absorb the ridiculously overvalued contracts of Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush in exchange for multiple draft picks including Golden State’s 2014 and 2017 first rounder. This can be viewed as Utah valuing what will most likely be late 1^st round draft picks (assuming Golden State will be very good for the upcoming years) over expiring contracts of players that would otherwise not see minutes in the average NBA rotation. A lot of writers have been criticizing Utah for spending what will be more than $24 million on these contracts, but they expire after next year which will give the Jazz max cap room next summer, and it’s not like signing any better players this season would help them in the long run anyway. This is a team building for the future, and I like what’s going on here; cutting salaries, acquiring young talent, and hoarding draft picks is the way to build a team for the future, and Utah will be very bad for the first time in a while, a minor speed bump for a very supportive fan base to overcome.

Utah has good, young talent, cap space going forward, and if they can secure a top 5 pick, this will be a successful rebuilding project.

Grade: A

Portland Trail Blazers

Key additions: C.J. McCollum, Mo Williams, Robin Lopez, Thomas Robinson, Earl Watson, Dorell Wright

Key subtractions: J.J. Hickson, Eric Maynor, Luke Babbitt

This should be an interesting team to watch next season, as Portland has nicely filled in some of the gaps and deficiencies of last year’s roster with capable rotation players, and projects to make a decent run at the last two or so playoff spots in the west. Lillard and Aldridge are improving, Batum serves as a terrific “glue” guy, and C.J. McCollum has potential to aid bench units as this core grows together. Portland performed pretty poorly offensively last year, and even worse defensively, as they finished as one of the 5 worst defensive teams in terms of points per 100 possessions. But offensively this team shouldn’t struggle as much moving forward, as the 3 man lineup of Lillard, Aldridge, and Batum scored at a rate that would have ranked 6^th in the league last season, and they will continue to develop chemistry while sharing the floor as Lillard improves.

Defensively, the Robin Lopez signing should significantly upgrade their defense in terms of rim protection, especially considering he’s replacing Meyers Leonard (a rookie last year), and J.J. Hickson (not a rim protector at all), and Lopez can also score and doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s probably not their center of the future, but he’s a capable starter and comes at a very cheap price ($12 million for 2 years). It should also serve as a double victory for Portland, as Meyers Leonard, a lottery pick last year, should be able to develop under Lopez while playing bench minutes. Portland also acquired Dorell Wright and Thomas Robinson to beef up perhaps what was the league’s worst bench last year (although Indiana has a strong case as well).

But you have to wonder exactly how high this team’s ceiling is going forward; Portland has some good talent, but even Lopez’s signing may only improve this team to a top 20 defensive unit, Aldridge hasn’t really proved himself as an elite power forward, and Damian Lillard is ‘already’ 23 years old. I’m not sure Portland has enough young talent to succeed going forward, and if things don’t change within the next couple years, they may have to trade some of their assets (Aldridge certainly comes to mind here). The Blazers are also capped out for the next two seasons, but that’s not a huge problem as big names aren’t exactly clamoring to come to play in Portland. However, they still need a player who can lead this roster for years to come, and unless Lillard is the guy (kinda doubt it) I’m not sure they have that.

Still, Portland did fill the holes in their roster, and they certainly have a shot at a playoff spot next year which is what they wanted.

Grade: B-

Minnesota Timberwolves

Key additions: Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad, Ronny Turiaf, Gorgui Dieng

Key subtractions: Andrei Kirilenko, Greg Steimsma, Luke Ridnour

Minnesota somewhat quietly shelled out some serious dollars this offseason, and with the signings of Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, and the resigning of Chase Budinger should make this one of the best offenses in the league provided everyone stays healthy. The lineup of Rubio, Martin, Budinger, Love, and Pekovic could work as an offensive coach’s dream; Budinger and Martin spreading the floor, Love and Rubio passing, and Pekovic’s inside scoring can kill defenses in numerous ways, and brings an invaluable characteristic to Minnesota basketball that has been missing for ages: watchability.

Minnesota’s front office management knows that this season has potential to be a healthy one, at least with Rubio and Love (Rubio almost a whole year removed from returning from ACL surgery, and Love should be healed from his broken hand), and has surrounded them with some very talented players on the wings. What's questionable, however, is the value of these contracts. Kevin Martin comes on board with a 4 year, $27 million contract, Budinger with a 3 year, $15 million contract, and Brewer with a 3 year, $14 million contract. Budinger seems to be the only player listed who signed at a reasonable price; Kevin Martin’s possesses not nearly enough defensive talent to be paid as a starter, and Corey Brewer, while a decent defender, is a high volume 3 point shooter who fails to shoot 30% from deep.

Now, the Wolves’ front office has had a notorious reputation for making spectacularly bad offseason decisions, yet none of these moves are the worst decisions in the world. Minnesota still has around $5 million in cap room remaining for this offseason, and should have a good chunk available for next offseason. But the problem lies in the bigger decisions upcoming for this team: Rubio will be due for an extension next year, Pekovic is currently in negotiations with this team for an extension as he is a restricted free agent this summer, and Love will be due for one soon as well. It may prove difficult for the Wolves to retain these players in the future (Love, Rubio, and Pekovic considered by many to be the core of this team going forward) simply because of the amount of money shelled out to the role players during this offseason.

Rubio and Love will most likely seek a max extension, and assuming both do deserve it (I think they do/will), the ongoing contract negotiations with Pekovic this summer will be a crucial development going forward. Signing Pek for around $12 million per year might give the Wolves a chance to keep Rubio and Love, but if Minnesota’s front office concedes to Pekovic’s request for $15 million per year it probably won’t be feasible going forward unless someone takes a significant pay cut.

I want to give Minny the benefit of the doubt here, mainly because a healthy group this year should be an exciting playoff team, a healthy development for a starved fanbase. But I fear that the front office gave up a few too many bills for some of these players, and it may obstruct them from achieving their long term goal of locking up the trio of Love, Rubio, and Pekovic together.

Grade: C+

Free Agency Review - Southeast Division

Miami Heat

Key additions: None

Key subtractions: Mike Miller

The Heat have made the decision to stand their ground over the offseason, and will continue to place their trust in the big 3, more specifically LeBron’s dominance and Dwyane Wade’s knees. Miami finished last season with the top offense and the 7^th ranked defense in terms of points per possession, so they really don’t need upgrades in any position.

And that’s a good thing because they are well over the cap and luxury tax line. This is to be expected when three of the best players in the world are absorbing most of the space on your books, but it could become a problem if the Heat sputter a little bit this year and/or other teams begin to catch up. Indiana has made significant strides through free agency, and all bets are off once Derrick Rose returns from injury assuming he is at 100%.

Miami will still be good though, of course; LeBron is still the best player in the world and showing no signs of stopping here. Bench units will not contain Mike Miller any longer, as he has moved on to Memphis after the use of the amnesty provision, but his contributions should be replicated relatively easy, especially with the sudden emergence of Chris Bosh as a legitimate three point threat. The offensive structure should remain relatively unchanged: lots of transition with LeBron the focal point of the offense and three point shooters spacing around the perimeter.

Looking forward to the future, though, things start to get interesting. As stated earlier, Miami was already capped out for this summer, so few moves were actually possible to significantly upgrade the roster. However, every member of the Big 3 will be handed a player offer by the team next year, meaning they can opt out of the final two years that technically finish out their contract to join on to another team through free agency. The Heat are fine for now ¹ , but if something catastrophic happens this year, and the big 3 split up (LeBron back to Cleveland? That’d be cool), Miami will be forced to starting from ground zero. As of now however, if you have the best player in the world on your roster, you’re a title contender.

Grade: A-

Atlanta Hawks

Key additions: Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon, Elton Brand, DaMarre Carroll, Lucas Nogueira, Dennis Schroeder

Key subtractions: Devin Harris, Ivan Johnson, Dahntay Jones, Zaza Pachulia, Johan Petro, Josh Smith, Anthony Tolliver

Atlanta, the most boring team in the entire NBA in my opinion, will somehow return to playoff action again next spring most likely. As far as the discussion for the most recent successful franchises in the league, the Hawks are somewhere above the Bucks but below the more talented teams: stuck with an average playoff seed year after year and consistently suffering an early exit.

Atlanta actually took a decent swing at Dwight Howard, trying to lure him to play in his hometown with their awful stadium sounds and unsupportive fan base. This was pretty much their only shot at rising to true contention, and while it was a decent effort, Atlanta still wound up around 4^thor 5^th in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes.

They did make some quality moves, however. Atlanta got away with highway robbery for Paul Millsap, a vastly underrated multidimensional talent who is very skilled offensively. Millsap is effective everywhere on the floor out to almost the three point arc, and his unselfishness should complement Al Horford very well when forming a 1-2 punch. The Hawks also signed Elton Brand and his massive wingspan to be a very quality 3^rd big that can play either the 4 or the 5. Kyle Korver brings shooting on a favorable contract, and they also signed two talented rookies in the first round of the draft. Lucas Nogueira will most likely be stashed in Spain for at least one more year in hopes that he can develop into a Sam Dalembert type rim protector. Dennis Schroder looks tremendously promising, some scouts prematurely claiming he could develop into an All-Star, and he’s already drawing Rajon Rondo/Tony Parker comparisons (fitting considering those two were selected late in the first round as well).

The most noteworthy offseason decision Atlanta faced, however, regarded the resigning of Jeff Teague, a good but not great point guard in the league’s most stacked position. Teague was initially signed to an offer sheet by Milwaukee (he was a restricted free agent), which was then matched by Atlanta. It’s clear that Atlanta wanted to keep Teague in their system, but at what price it is not certain because the Hawks were forced to match Milwaukee’s 4 year $32 million offer to retain him. His price seems about fair considering this season he’ll make what is smack dab in between what Kyle Lowry ($6.21 million) and Ty Lawson ($10.786 million) will make in 2013-2014. I would rank Teague somewhere in between those two players talent wise, and while he’s most likely already reached his potential, he’s a solid point guard going forward and the Hawks will try to build their roster at other positions to form a capable nucleus.

But “capable” is really the best Atlanta will be, unless they somehow nab a franchise changer. A core of Teague, Horford, and Millsap will be similar talent wise to what Utah has had for the past few years, and they haven’t really made much noise in the playoffs as of late. In fact, if the Hawks continue to suffer first round exits, they may eventually have to replicate what Utah is doing this year and build around some younger talent unless they can nab a big name in free agency. Atlanta does have some youthful talent on their roster from recent drafts (Cunningham, Noguiera, Schroeder, and Jenkins), and they are banking on the hope that these guys can become talented contributors.

As far as their cap situation, Atlanta has decent flexibility looking forward to the future, but probably not quite enough for a max contract next year unless there’s a significant team option declination. Atlanta hasn’t had much luck in the way of attracting free agents either, at least as of late, and that could be their downfall which really is unfortunate. The Hawks are one superstar away from competing for a title, but the same can also be said for a large handful of other teams around the league.

Again, a returning Lou Williams will aid this nothing more than solid core, and Atlanta could sneak into the second round of the playoffs within the next few years if their opponent suffers an injury or one of the Hawks over performs, but what we see today looks like the best it’s ever going to be: the Hawks will continue to be unbearably boring.

Grade: B

Washington Wizards

Key additions: Eric Maynor, Otto Porter, Glen Rice Jr.

Key subtractions: Leandro Barbosa, Jason Collins

The most critical decision Washington faced over the offseason was the decision regarding the resigning of John Wall. Wall’s rookie deal expires next year as he will enter into restricted free agency, so the Wizards have the opportunity to sign him to a max deal now or later.

Washington has opted to give Wall the max deal now rather than later to avoid at all costs any hint of free agency, even if they would likely retain him next summer anyway. Some have argued Washington should have held out to ensure he has a healthy season this year, but it’s clear Wizards management values him as their key building block going forward. Wall will be on the books for the next 5 years, receiving $80 million over that time period.

In my mind this is a good decision. I may have waited to extend him after next summer after watching him improve this year, but it’s not the most risky move in the world to extend him now either. Wall absolutely possesses the potential to be one of the top point guards in the league, and while he struggled earlier in the year, he really elevated his level of play late last season. Perhaps an even more promising element to Wall’s game was his on court success when paired with Bradley Beal. The Wizards posted a net rating of +8.8 points per 100 possessions when the duo shared the court according to NBA.com, the second best two man lineup on the Wizards’ roster. Wall pulled up his efficiency on long 2s from “bad” to “acceptable” last year, and his field goal percentage was raised from the last two seasons to around league average (a good number for a high volume shooter who also gets to the line often).²

It’s clear he’s the centerpiece of Washington’s future, and the Wizards will continually seek out talent to build around Wall for the future. Martell Webster netted a 4 year, $22 million contract from the Wiz, and while some viewed this as a slight overpay, athletic wings who can shoot and defend are extremely valuable, especially with someone like Wall to continually get them quality looks. Webster won’t be that old at the end of this contract (30), and he shot a career high on 3s last year in both attempts (4.3/game) and percentage (42%). Eric Maynor should handle running the second unit when Wall rests on the bench or misses a few games due to injury and his 2 year $4 million contract is very favorable for Washington.

I like what the Wizards have done here. Otto Porter projects to be a solid rotation piece going forward and they should have enough talent to sneak into a playoff spot this year provided Wall stays healthy. Better yet, the gargantuan contracts of Okafor and Ariza (Okafor mainly) both expire after this season which would net Washington near max cap room even after the Wall extension.

Grade: B

Charlotte Bobcats

Key additions: Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller

Key subtractions: Gana Diop, Reggie Williams, Byron Mullens

The Charlotte Bobcats made the biggest news their franchise has made in a long time by signing Al Jefferson to a 3 year $40 million dollar contract that contains a player option for year 3. It was a move that honored them national attention for the first time in a while.

I have done a ton of reading on this move (especially Bobcats blogs), and I still have no idea what to think of it. Let me first throw this out there: I have never been a devout fan of a franchise that has consistently underperformed to the degree that Charlotte has for the past few seasons (no Chiefs jokes here please). Lots of Bobcats fans rejoiced at this decision, even though they still knew this roster stood far away from the running for a playoff spot. In fact, nearly all of the writers and fans at www.rufusonfire.com liked the move in one way or another. It was intended to bring a veteran with strong leadership experience to the roster, and a player that could ease the scoring burden from other players and significantly improve team rebounding. Al will do that just fine, however, will he significantly aid in the effort to attract big name free agents to Charlotte?

This is a good move, but I’m not sure it’s at the right time or place. Sure, it will make the Bobcats watchable and competitive this season, but I’m not sure if it actually improves the team’s chances of winning a championship (don’t laugh, that’s every team’s goal) going forward. With what is likely to be one of the best drafts ever upcoming next June, is it much more painful to withstand another losing season in hopes of achieving a top 5 pick rather than signing a player who possesses just enough talent to possibly escape a high lottery pick?

Apparently that answer was yes, and so here we stand: a youthful roster with some potential to grow into something promising, and a 28 year old veteran who will help the Bobcats bring it every night and give them a charismatic locker room presence. The selection of Cody Zeller at the 4^thpick in the draft continued the trend of Charlotte’s risky draft selection within the past few years, but a lot of writers think he can be a valuable piece going forward. Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are continually developing as well.

Charlotte also remained determined to retain Gerald Henderson, a restricted free agent this summer, by signing him to a 3 year $18 million dollar deal. Henderson would have seen much more money if he had proven himself as a more reliable long distance shooter over the past few years, but Charlotte signed him to a very reasonable deal, and he has plenty of value through other forms of offense and on defense. The spacing will suffer with him on the floor, but Henderson tore it up at the end of last season, and if he can develop his 3 point shot (unlikely, although it has slowly improved over the past few years) he could be a decent value at this price.

A core of Andrew Wiggins, Walker, MKG, and Zeller going forward is much more appealing in my eyes than one with Jefferson in place of Wiggins³ , but the Bobcats will be watchable next year, and that’s very important to a starved fan base. They will also have max cap room next summer after Ben Gordon’s ridiculous contract expires, and the organization is banking on big Al making Charlotte an attractive destination when that time comes.

Grade: C+

Orlando Magic

Key additions: Jason Maxiell, Victor Oladipo

Key subtractions: Beno Udrih

The Magic, after accumulating assets such as Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Maurice Harkless, and Andrew Nicholson through previous drafts, have made little noise during this offseason. Vucevic proved to be the piece that claimed Orlando as the unforeseen winners in the Dwight Howard trade, and the franchise will continue to build around him. They will be bad again this year, but unlike Charlotte they will patiently wait for quality pieces to become available while building the team through the draft in the meantime. Oladipo has been considered by some to be a favorite to win the rookie of the year award, and the management will inspect each piece of the roster this season (especially the young guns) to determine their future with the organization.

Again, this team will be very bad this year, but Orlando has in their favor both a stacked upcoming draft and max contract room next summer with no bad contracts on their roster. Aaron Afflalo might (and should, in my opinion) be traded sometime soon for younger talent and/or draft picks, and Hedo Turkaglu is on an expiring contract.

The Jason Maxiell signing was the only major offseason acquisition other than the Oladipo draft pick, and his contract is very favorable at 2 year $5 million.Maxiell will provide a terrific locker room presence with his NBA experience, even if he’s not a terrific basketball player.

Again, this will most likely be a boring season for Magic fans, but there is some quality, young talent on this roster, and after this year Orlando may return to relevancy.

Grade: B

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1 As Zach Lowe pointed out, the use of the amnesty provision on Mike Miller pulled Miami’s total salary below the next luxury tax level. You can read about that here, but basically, before using amnesty on Miller, Miami was in the 4th incremental tax bracket. Miller’s amnesty brought them down to the 3rd tier which saved a lot of money in the luxury tax system^↩
2 For comparison, Wall actually shot more times per 40 minutes adjusted than James Harden and recorded a higher field goal percentage.^↩
3 Again, Charlotte will be bad this year, but I’m not sure they could be bad enough to secure a top 5 pick. Philadelphia, Boston, Phoenix, Orlando, and Utah will all be terrible and probably worse.^↩