I finally made it. It’s
taken me about two months and 15,000
words to cover all teams’ transactions in free agency, and I’m finally taking
on the final part of this 6 part series. This will cover the Southwest division,
perhaps the most competitive division in the league next season.
San Antonio Spurs
Key additions: Marco Bellinelli
Key subtractions: DeJuan Blair,
Gary Neal, Tracy McGrady
San Antonio will remain mostly
unchanged per usual, and after retaining Tiago Splitter and signing
sharpshooter Marco Bellinelli, should make another championship run provided
Tim Duncan strikes the fountain of youth again. San Antonio signed Splitter to
a 4 year $36 million contract, and while that seems a bit steep for a fringe
starter like Tiago, the deal is actually structured quite favorably. Tiago will
receive $10 million next year, and his salary in the following years decreases
by $750,000 each year as he ages. Splitter isn’t a great player by any means,
but he should provide a decent cushion once (if ever) Tim Duncan’s productivity
declines. Bellinelli should provide a nice spark off the bench and can stroke
it from downtown in Gary Neal’s absence.
However, this team’s title hopes
hinge completely on the productivity of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan
as they always have. Duncan and Manu are old (37, 36), and while this window
has been closing for the past few years, it could finally be closed this year.
Manu struggled mightily in last years playoffs, and one wonders how much more
Duncan could have in the tank come playoff time. Kawhi Leonard projects to be a
stud, but no one else on this roster has potential to reach stardom, and it
will be interesting to see in which direction this franchise goes once Duncan,
Ginobili and Popovich retire.
The good news here is the cap
flexibility, to no surprise given the reputation of this organization. After
the 2014/2015 season, Splitter’s 4 year contract is the only contract on the
books, and if Duncan denies his player option that season, the Spurs could have
max cap room as soon as next year. It’s unlikely that San Antonio would ever
make a huge splash in free agency, but we all know they will continue to draft
well in the next coming years. As for now, they’ll keep the same personnel
they’ve had for the past few years and make a run at a title, and they still
might just have a decent shot. And they stayed beneath the luxury tax. Nice
job.
Grade: A
Memphis Grizzlies
Key Additions: Kosta Koufos,
Mike Miller
Key Subtractions: Darrell
Arthur, Tony Wroten, Keyon Dooling, Austin Daye
Let’s just say this: Memphis had
one of the most impressive teams in the league last year. With a smothering
defense from top to bottom, Lionel Hollins’ defensive scheme lead the western
conference in defensive points per possession.
And then Memphis let Hollins
walk… why?
Yes, it can be argued that the
Westbrook injury allowed Memphis to advance further than they originally would
have, but why tamper with a team that made it to the Western Conference
Finals?? This team doesn’t have a lofty ceiling offensively, but with Mike
Miller spacing the floor they could probably scrap together a league average
offense to supplement their destructive defense. But it’s hard to tell how good
this defense will be with Lionel Hollins gone. A team’s title window is such a
precious time frame, especially in the NBA, and the decision to move one of the
NBA’s best coaches from a team who thrives from his defensive schemes is a poor
decision in my mind.
Other than that, however,
Memphis played the little things pretty well. Desperate for outside shooting,
the Grizzlies somehow landed Mike Miller over Oklahoma City, a move that
surprised many NBA junkies, myself included. It will be interesting to see how
lineups featuring both Quincy Pondexter and Mike Miller fair offensively, as
they stand as the only consistent and reliable sharpshooters on this current
roster. Kosta Koufos will provide a true backup center for Marc Gasol, and can
improve bench units both offensively and defensively.
But I think the decision to let
Lionel Hollins out of Memphis will be their falling point, especially after
signing the players on this roster specifically to fit into his defensive
scheme. Tony Allen just signed a 4 year contract, Conley has 3 years left on
his deal, and Gasol and Randolph each have 2 years remaining. This was supposed
to be the core that could reach a title, but Memphis unwisely released its
catalyst. Not to mention, this team is tied up on the books until at least the
summer of 2015 assuming Marc Gasol picks up his player option.
There will still be a very good
basketball team in Memphis this year, but I think we saw their peak last
season.
Grade: C
Houston Rockets
Key additions: Ronnie Brewer,
Marcus Camby, Dwight Howard, Omri Casspi, Reggie Williams
Key subtractions: James
Anderson, Carlos Delfino, Thomas Robinson, Royce White
Well they did it. Going against
the common theory of success in the NBA, the Rockets have ascended to the level
of championship contender without tanking first for a top draft pick. With Dwight
Howard and James Harden both on the roster through the summer of 2017, Houston
has invested the franchise’s next 4 to 5 seasons in these potential superstars.
There is plenty of talent surrounding this potentially devastating duo, but it’s
sure to overturn substantially throughout the next few years as Houston will
work around their big contracts with quality role players.
The quality ownership is there;
Daryl Morey has proven himself to be a top 5 general manager in the NBA, and
actually has quite a few assets to work with in the coming years, specifically
Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik. Many expect Asik to be moved at some point
during the season, but reports claim Morey wants to keep him on the roster for
the time being. Chandler Parsons is another quality asset on perhaps the most
valuable contract in the NBA.
But the success of this team
hinges almost completely on the health of Dwight Howard and the development of
James Harden going forward. Both have asserted themselves as superstars in the
league by now, and the chemistry of the two on both sides of the ball will
determine the fate of this team. I’ve already covered
some of my thoughts on Howard and his value, and I’ll continue on that trend
and say I’m hesitant on his ability to completely recover to his prime. His
health has diminished substantially within the past few years, and his
defensive contributions to the Lakers last year did more harm than good. He
certainly makes Houston better, but the success of this team I think will hinge
mostly on Harden’s production.
As for their cap situation, the
Rockets will be capped out for at least the next two summers, and considering
the gargantuan contracts of Harden and Howard together, they won’t be able to
make a significant free agency splash for at least 4 years. However, Morey needed another superstar to pair with
Harden, and he struck gold once again with Howard. Casspi and Reggie Williams
add long range shooting to an offense that thrives on it, and Ronnie Brewer and
Marcus Camby provide insurance for substantial injuries. This team should be significantly
better than they were last year.
Grade: A
Dallas Mavericks
Key additions: DeJuan Blair, Jose
Calderon, Monta Ellis, Sam Dalembert, Wayne Ellington, Devin Harris, Shane
Larkin
Key subtractions: Roddy
Beaubois, Elton Brand, Elton Brand, Darren Collison, Jared Cunningham, Mike James, Chris Kaman, O.J. Mayo, Anthony
Morrow
There’s no such thing as “tanking”
for Mark Cuban, especially when Dirk Nowitzki is around, even if that means
signing a hot shot like Monta Ellis to a 3 year deal. This roster is well above
the cap for the upcoming season, but lacks substantial talent, and in the
scrappy western conference, the Mavs would be blessed to even score an eight
seed by the end of the year.
There are plenty of good
contracts and plenty of bad. Sam Dalembert comes in on the good side, and with
a 2 year deal under 8$ million that’s
only partially guaranteed, it’s a steal for the Mavs. Dalembert is one of the
more underrated centers in a league that severely lacks depth at that position.
He can protect the rim, rebounds very effectively, and doesn’t make mistakes.
Jose Calderon comes in at a decent price as well, and while I don’t like giving
a 32 year old a 4 year contract, he is a quality point guard who shoots the ball well and plays the role of
floor general very well. Dejuan Blair is another steal for under $1 million.
But there’s a lot of bad as
well, and it’s all Monta Ellis. Signing him to a 3 year deal is one thing, but
one that is worth $26 million is way too much, even considering the scoring
punch he adds offensively. Dirk’s not going to be around for forever, and if he
bolts as soon as his contract expires next summer, that means having an
offensive cancer on your roster for two more years than you’d like to. Ellis is
perhaps the league’s most inefficient scorer, and a back court of Calderon and
Ellis is going to be defensively unreliable. I’ve always thought of him as a
bench scorer and nothing more, but allowing him to start for teams is a poor
decision in my mind.
This year will be similar to the
previous two, a few breaks here and there and the Mavs could find a way to
sneak into the playoffs for a first round sweep or 5 game exit and nothing more.
The future is interesting though considering Dirk’s situation as well as how
the younger guys (Crowder, Larkin) develop. The Mavs would have max cap room
next summer by by letting Dirk walk after his cap hold expires, and Dallas has
always been an alluring destination for free agents. As for now, the Mavs are
sticking with a “win now” mindset. Let’s see if that pays off long term.
Grade: B-
New Orleans Pelicans
Key additions: Jrue Holiday,
Tyreke Evans, Anthony Morrow, Greg Steimsma
Key subtractions: Lou Amundson,
Terrel Harris, Robin Lopez, Greivis Vasquez, Roger Mason
This is the team I’m most
intrigued to watch this season, simply because this unit could either mesh into
a powerful playoff force, or self destruct into an 11 seed. Unlike Philadelphia
management, I’m very high on Jrue Holiday’s potential as a floor general and his
basketball IQ; Holiday substantially elevated his play last year in
Philadelphia despite being held back by an offensive system that didn’t allow
him to fully blossom.
NOLA has other pieces as well.
Eric Gordon is one of my absolute favorite players in the league when healthy,
someone who can attack the rim with force, draw fouls in a heap, and shoot well
from deep. He’s a go to scorer who can serve as a floor spacer when Holiday and
Evans are handling the ball. Anthony Davis has perhaps the most potential out
of any young player in the entire league, and Tyreke Evans quietly had a decent
season last year in Sacramento. The list of quality pieces extends even further
than this with Austin Rivers coming off the bench and Robin Lopez filling in as
a capable starting center, something this team desperately needed.
The biggest concern with this
team considers how the Pelicans’ logjam of ball handlers will mesh on offense.
Tyreke Evans is one who is almost only effective with the ball in his hands
after recognizing his lack of an outside shot, yet Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon,
and even Austin Rivers occasionally could all serve as primary ball handlers on
most teams. They should still space the floor evenly, but Monty Williams has
some interesting decision making to do regarding lineups this season. If
something goes awry, it might be wise to trade one of these studs for a couple
specialists and/or draft picks to continue building for the future.
But even if NOLA idles forward
this season, Anthony Davis should still develop into one of the best players in
the league, and they aren’t but a few pieces away from being a strong force
even in the western conference. They’ve done well to have some cap room in the
upcoming years, and New Orleans has added enough pieces to snag a solid playoff
spot. It’s just a matter of how effectively the talent translates into
production and how Monty Williams handles it.
Grade: B+
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