The Grizzlies-Thunder western
conference semifinal matchup is full of attractive storylines. Can Kevin Durant
continue to carry the Thunder through the smothering Memphis defense? Can Marc
Gasol prove that he’s an true superstar and carry his team to victory? Will the
absence of Russell Westbrook haunt the impoverished Oklahoma City offense even
more as the playoff atmosphere intensifies?
However, one of the more subtle
questions comes regarding the Thunder rotation decisions made by Scott Brooks.
Against what is most likely the most formidable frontcourt in the league in
Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, OKC will look to find a suitable combination of
big men to counterattack the Grizzlies’ skilled post players. Each of the
Thunder bigs displays clear and diverse strengths and weaknesses, and
minimizing these weaknesses and slowing down Memphis in the post is going to be
the crucial development in this series.
In game 1 on Sunday, Scott Brooks
experimented with a small ball lineup (a lineup with Durant at the 4) for only
7 of the 48 total minutes. This decision of course was decided mainly by the
Memphis’ lineups; Durant has no chance of banging with Randolph or Gasol in the
post, thus two of the Thunder bigs (Collison, Ibaka, Perkins, and sometimes
Thabeet) are required to be on the floor almost all the time. Not only this, but Memphis is blessed enough
to have both of their bigs healthy enough to play extended minutes in the
playoffs; Randolph and Gasol are averaging over 70 minutes combined in the 7
playoff games thus far.
Thus the main concern for Scott
Brooks now in dealing with this issue becomes the lineup combinations for the
Thunder, and nitpicking how many minutes are allotted to each arrangement. The
challenge comes now in assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each Thunder
post player. Collison is mainly thrown into the mix when Kevin Martin is on the
floor; OKC can run the two-man game with the Collison-Martin combo from the
horns offense with a dribble handoff. The Collison-Ibaka combination is effective
offensively as Collison can stay up top to run a pick and roll and Ibaka can
stay down low to crash the boards, but not so much effective defensively
against Memphis as neither of them are ideal matchups against Gasol. The
Ibaka-Perkins combination is probably the strongest defensively, but presents
little to nothing offensively as Ibaka can’t pass or set screens, and Perkins
can’t (or rather shouldn’t) shoot anywhere on the floor.
So what’s the most effective combo,
and how should minutes be allotted?
Despite what some fans may think,
Kendrick Perkins is actually a very good defender; there’s a reason he plays as
much as he does, and it’s certainly not because of his offense. Perkins
actually rated 20th of all players in defensive points per possession
per mysynergysports.com, and even though defense is wildly subjective, Perkins’
value is certainly evident. His defensive numbers against post ups specifically
are more modest, but Perk is the only Thunder player with enough strength and
skill to effectively match up with Gasol. He definitely doesn’t help on
offense, but he does set some jarring screens, and doesn’t make ‘that many’ mistakes offensively. Perkins
will certainly see a minutes boost in this series given the matchup, and
rightly so; he can body up Memphis’ best player better than anyone else, and doesn’t
command a double team when Gasol gets the ball on the block.
Ibaka presents an interesting match
up against Zach Randolph. Ibaka is heralded as a terrific defender because of
his quantity of blocked shots, but isn’t quite as good perhaps as people would
think. However, this matchup is a good one for him; Ibaka has the most trouble
with floor spacing 4s, but Randolph is strictly a post player, and Ibaka’s post
defense has improved mightily this year. He played spectacular defense in game
1 against Randolph; after allowing a couple buckets in the first quarter, Ibaka
held his own against Randolph in the post; holding him to 3-9 shooting
including this crucial block in the fourth quarter.
The most important thing to
consider in Ibaka’s developed game however, is his added strength; Ibaka is
deceptively strong, and not only had the strength to halter Randolph’s post
ups, but also to keep him off the offensive boards. Z-Bo only had 2 offensive
rebounds all game, much lower than his 4.2/game average.
The defensive matchup for Ibaka is
favorable against Randolph in the post, however the issue is with the offensive
game plan; he can’t catch the ball and has no idea how to pass in traffic which
eliminates him from being a threat in the pick and roll or working from a post
up. His only offensive strengths are rebounding and spacing the floor with the
midrange jumper, and if he continues to shoot like he did today he may get
yanked earlier in the contest for Collison.
This is the most intriguing predicament
for Scott Brooks, which is the minute allotment to Nick Collison. Collison’s
minutes have fluctuated greatly thus far in the playoffs, and it will continue
to be that way until Brooks can find a consistent balance between offense and
defense. Collison is going to be much needed for the Thunder on offense for his
passing against a stingy Memphis defense, but facing two stud post players on
defense may not be so favorable. Bench units featuring Collison are outscoring
any other such lineups on the team recording 115.7 points per 100 possessions
in the playoffs, a number that would even top the Heat’s regular season league
leading offense. This is what is so interesting about lineups with Collison;
most lineups featuring him have been small ball lineups with Durant at the 4,
however against Memphis, lineups featuring Collison will most likely feature
Ibaka/Perkins as well. Collison is a terrific passer on the offensive end, but
defensively can get bullied by Randolph, and fatigues much quicker than the
other two Thunder bigs.
Against a spectacular Memphis team,
finding the balance between offensive and defensive performance is critical for
the Thunder to win this series, and Scott Brooks will have his hands full
against these skilled Memphis bigs.
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