Breaking Down OKC in Game 4

If I were to tell you that Scott Brooks was going to get terrific performances from both Serge Ibaka and Kevin Martin before Game 4, you would most likely predict that the Thunder would have slithered out of Memphis with the series tied at 2-2. Even more surprising than OKC actually getting help from its supporting cast was Kevin Durant’s dreadful play down the stretch. Durant was just 2 for 12 in the 4^th quarter and overtime resulting in a bloody shot chart shown below.

However it’s clearly unfair to cast all of the blame on Durant’s shoulders, as it’s terribly unjustified to expect him to set up the offense and score the basketball, even for him. Brooks is used to tossing the ball into the hands of his star players and letting them outmaneuver savvy defenses with their craftiness and overwhelming athleticism. This is very unfortunate for OKC, as Brooks is forced to scramble for answers as to how to operate a disabled offense using only one superstar instead of two. This leads to a lofty number of “broken” possessions; either Durant can’t free himself to get the ball, or he does get the ball 35 feet from the basket resulting in a off balance mid-range jumper over 2 defenders. Durant is such a terrific player that this usually doesn’t even faze him, but it’s impossible to expect him to lift such a one-dimensional offense to even middling efficiency.

This is why OKC collapsed on Monday night, as Durant couldn’t keep his head above the water even with strong support from his teammates. Brooks ran KD off of screens to each side of the court, but right as he caught the ball to face the basket, he was overloaded with a crowd of Memphis defenders as shown here.

And here.

It’s impossible to have an efficient offense when the defense can key in one scorer, which is why the key component to the solution (albeit it’s probably too late for a comeback now) most likely lies within the lineup data and distribution of minutes. First off, Reggie Jackson has done a terrific job this series, especially considering his situation being a 2^nd year player with nearly no playoff experience. He’s made the mistakes expected, but has pretty consistently provided a spark off the bench and created some easy transition baskets for OKC. His defense has been less than great at times, but it’s only a slight drop-off from Westbrook who is prone to gambles and falling out of line on defensive rotations. Ibaka has also played tremendously in this series, in my opinion. Despite having a rough game 3 offensively, he has been doing a terrific job on Zach Randolph, added 17 points in game 4, and rebounded surprisingly well. Even Martin came out to play with a respectable performance.

The most critical development in this series, or even the entire playoffs for OKC, as I had written earlier, is simply the minute allotment for the Thunder big men, specifically Nick Collison. Collison is a terrific two-way player for OKC, and while he’s not as good of a matchup against Randolph or Gasol as is Perkins or Ibaka, his offense more than makes up for it. As shown here, the two-man game between Collison and Martin is a beautiful liberator from the staleness of the Thunder offense without Durant on the floor. 

So when diving into the lineup data, it’s relatively obvious to link the correlation of OKC’s success to Nick Collison being on the floor. Out of all Thunder players, Collison has the highest defensive rating on the team in the playoffs (disregarding Russell Westbrook’s defensive rating in 2 games (smaller sample size)), as well as an offensive rating that is much higher than their playoff average.

This is why Scott Brooks’ minute allowance to Nick Collison is so befuddling. Collison does foul more than what is ideal, and can sometimes get pushed around in the post, but he’s certainly the best two way big man OKC has here, and the offense thrives with him on the floor. He is certainly the best passing big man on the team, is above average in the pick and roll, and most importantly Memphis can’t completely ignore him no matter where he stands on the floor like they can with Perkins, and I would really like to see Collison get up around the 22-24 minute range next game.

Another crucial development moving forward is the minute allotment of guards, specifically Reggie Jackson, Derek Fisher, Kevin Martin, and Thabo Sefolosha. Durant is obviously going to get around 42-43 minutes, per game, but the minute distribution for the remaining players has fluctuated greatly in Westbrook’s absence.

So now the question Scott Brooks faces is how to effectively manage the strengths and weaknesses of each player. None of the guards listed above are terrific two-way players other than Thabo Sefolosha; Jackson and Fisher are both suspect defensively, and Martin might as well just be a traffic cone out there. However, late in games, the Thunder have shown aggression as of late, risking defensive liability for hopes of improved offensive efficiency by playing smaller lineups, and taking a chance with double teams on defense.
This isn’t always the way to go, but it has worked decently so far, which makes it even more confusing that Brooks went away from it Monday night. After Collison fouled out late in the 4^th quarter, Brooks went with Perkins over a hot Martin who had already been shooting well earlier in the game. This self-destruction technique was part of the downfall for the Thunder in game 4. Against a skilled defense such as Memphis, OKC simply needs more options to achieve some diversity and lessen the load on KD. After running a pin-down screen to get Durant the ball on the wing, a subtle pin-down screen by Ibaka to free Martin in the opposite corner would create a terrific look for a great shooter after a skip pass from Durant. This would also most likely keep Memphis on their heels and perhaps allow a smidgen more room for him to drive the lane.

One last thing I noticed was the use of Jackson and Fisher on the floor simultaneously. This is redundant in my opinion; allowing either player to take the ball up the floor would be perfectly suitable, which would then allow the player off the ball to be substituted for either Martin or Sefolosha, both of which would be an upgrade over a two point guard lineup.

Unfortunately for Thunder fans, this doesn’t really matter. The series is most likely over by now, and even considering how well (compared to his job in previous games) Scott Brooks managed the lineups in game 4, Memphis still came out victorious. OKC would have to play near perfect basketball to reel off 3 straight, and if the Grizzlies can figure out how to exploit the mismatch they have against the small Thunder lineups offensively (as I suspect Hollins will), you can forget about it.

This Memphis team is legit, and stay tuned for another article as to why I think Memphis has a legit chance to knock off Miami this year.