If there were
ever a year in which Kevin Durant could actually wrestle away the MVP trophy
from LeBron James, it would be this one.
As expected,
the Thunder offense has been wildly inconsistent post-Westbrook knee surgery,
going 7-5 in the 12 games since the surgery December 27. Those 12 games have disclosed
some harsh developments in the Thunder’s overall play including Reggie
Jackson’s inconsistency as a playmaker, Serge Ibaka’s inability to create shots
of his own, and requiring Derek Fisher to play extended minutes. However,
number 35 is the only player on Oklahoma City’s payroll who has been consistent
on both sides of the ball sans Westbrook.
In fact,
consistent doesn’t even do him justice. Kevin Durant has been spectacular.
In the
aforementioned 12 games, Durant has averaged 36.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 7.5
rebounds on 50% shooting from the field and fewer turnovers per game (2.8) than
he averaged with Westbrook sharing the court (3.3). Oh, and while we’re at it,
he’s averaged 4.2 more shot attempts, 3 more free throw attempts, and more
minutes per game during this stretch.
It’s pretty
obvious that if he can continue to put up these high volumes consistently,
Kevin Durant will be the favorite to win the MVP award. No player in the NBA
can score as efficiently as KD can, and very few have the extra level he has in
the fourth quarter. But the MVP award isn’t necessarily awarded to the best NBA
player, but the most valuable one, and there are a lot of intangibles KD will
need to fall in place in order to effectively display the enormous value he
provides to the Thunder in a way that will get him votes.
Define His Value by Production
Oklahoma City
will need to win enough games without Westbrook to comfortably tread water
around the top of the western conference record wise, and eventually finish the
season strong with a healthy Westbrook and glide into a top 2 seed to add weight to the MVP credibility. A huge
chunk of “value” comes from wins added from the roster, and to qualify Durant
as the MVP, we must prove that OKC would be a garbage team without him, or at
least try to.
Offensive and
defensive rating statistics aren’t always indicative of a player’s true value
on the court, but it is at least a good start. The offense scores at a rate of
107.3 points per 100 possessions when Durant is on the floor, and 103.2 when he
sits per NBA.com. This is a substantial difference: about the difference
between a 3rd ranked offense and a 16th ranked offense.
There are many other factors that go into this discussion, but considering he
has posted these numbers with over 1500 minutes played and understanding all of these minutes are meaningful minutes
(Durant sits during garbage time), it’s at least somewhat conclusive that he elevates
this offense from “lottery team” to “elite level”.
However,
there’s even more that goes into it. To better prove this theory, we should
hypothetically replace Durant with a mid-tier power forward (replacement player, someone along the
lines of Trevor Ariza), reconstruct the offense such that Jackson accumulates a
greater percentage of touches, consider the harsh disadvantages of thrusting
Serge Ibaka into a second option, and factor in Scott Brooks’ reluctance to
tinker with starting lineups.
These
indemonstrable claims seem to add weight to the original claim that removing
Durant from the roster would face OKC with catastrophic consequences. Even with Westbrook
playing his expected 50 or so games this season, it’s hard to see this Durant-less offense
cracking the top half in the league. The Thunder defense would still be good it
seems, but in the ultra-competitive western conference, this would likely be a lottery/fringe
playoff team.
Win Games
OKC is 30-10
currently (as of when this article is written). If they could finish the season
on this pace with 60 wins AND Durant continues this dominant performance
through the rest of the season, that should be enough to qualify him for his
first MVP. Let’s talk about exactly why.
First off, the
team struggled getting out of the gate without Westbrook. There was a nice win
on the road against a decent Charlotte team and a dominating performance at
home against Houston, but OKC has lost games to Portland, Brooklyn, Utah,
Denver, and Memphis. Yes, most of these are western conference teams, but 5
losses in 8 games plants a substantial blemish on Durant’s record.
However,
losing Westbrook to injury proved to be such an abrupt situation, and
adjustments had to be made on the fly to account for his absence. “One night he
played, the next night they said he was out for a few months”, said Durant
about the injury. The Portland and Brooklyn losses were specifically a result
of poor late game offense by OKC, but to harness Durant with responsibility for
the losses to Denver (Foye’s fortunate long range shooting), Utah (poor first
half defense), and Memphis (OKC just missed some open threes) would be
unreasonable.
The point is
that it sometimes takes luck to win NBA games, and takes even more luck to win
consistently. The hiccups in the offense in the few games after the Westbrook
injury are to be expected as adjustments are made on the fly, but as Durant
continues to post these enormous stat totals, it is unfair to cast the blame
for inconsistent offensive performance solely on his shoulders.
If we have effectively
concluded that OKC would most likely be a lottery/fringe playoff team in
Durant’s absence in the ruthless western conference, then it should be clear
enough to distinguish the amount of value he brings to the team in terms of
wins. MVP candidates bring value to their teams in different ways; Kevin Love
may elevate the Wolves from a 25-win team to a 42-win team (just a rough guess).
Durant probably adds a similar total; however raising a team from “borderline
playoff” to “championship contender” establishes much more credibility. Also,
factoring in the relatively relaxed attitude LeBron has been playing with thus
far to conserve energy for the playoffs, and the much smaller (comparatively)
role he plays on offense), I think that gives Durant the edge here.
