Alright, it’s time for part 2:
the central division. Indiana and Chicago will most likely head this division
once again, but Cleveland and even Detroit look to be putting themselves in
position to compete for years to come. Here’s an overview of some of the major transactions
each team made this summer, and the implications of those on their respective salary
cap futures.
Indiana Pacers
Key additions: Luis Scola, C.J.
Watson, Chris Copeland, Solomon Hill
Key subtractions: D.J. Augustin, Tyler Hansbrough, Gerald Green
The Pacers had been on track to
make a very decent splash in free agency after the initial signings of C.J. Watson
and Chris Copeland. In addition to these nifty signings, Indiana exercised the
clever decision to let D.J. Augustin and Tyler Hansbrough both walk in the
offseason, and were expected to rely on the starting five from last year as
well as an upgraded bench of Watson, Copeland, and a returning Granger to carry
them past the Heat.
Long story short, this was a team
prepared to make a decent run at the top
of the eastern conference, but still may have not had enough of a bench to
overcome Miami. Until Larry Bird (team president) pulled the trigger on a move
that brought Luis Scola to the current roster, that is. Scola significantly
upgrades this team’s second unit, and gives the Pacers a big bench scorer who could
give Miami (or any team) fits if they play small lineups against them. The
trade sent Miles Plumlee, Gerald Green, and a 2014 first rounder1
to Phoenix for Scola, and while I’m not exactly sure if giving up Plumlee and a first rounder next year was the
best decision, Phoenix GM Ryan McDonough is hoarding as much future talent as possible,
and Indiana was very much in need of bench help. The Pacers are a win-now mode
and will have to make the best of what they have on this current roster for
years to come.
As far as the cap implications,
Indiana played free agency nearly perfectly. They are capped out for this
season, but still under the luxury tax threshold which is critical for a team
not known for big spending. They have some crucial decision making to do next
offseason when both Paul George and Danny Granger become free agents (Paul
George restricted, Danny Granger unrestricted), but Paul George is expected to receive
a max deal sometime given his recent performance2
and even if Granger proves to be too expensive to resign next year, Indiana
could still survive if Solomon Hill develops into a decent roll player. Lance
Stephenson is also on an expiring contract, so Indiana will have to make a decent
run at him next offseason, and while they won’t be able to add any big names
for the next couple of years due to being capped out, they should at least be
able to still keep this current core intact.
Before acquiring Scola, I still
would have ranked Miami at the top of the conference by just a hair. However,
the current roster with a bench unit of Scola, Granger, and Watson should have
enough talent to thrive even when the starters are off the floor. Let’s not
forget, nearly everyone on this roster is still getting better, and the Pacers
should be in prime position to win for the next few years barring injury.
Grade: A
Chicago Bulls
Key Additions: Tony Snell, Mike
Dunleavy
Key Subtractions: Nate Robinson,
Marco Belinelli
The Bulls’ roster remains
relatively unchanged even after free agency, which is a more than acceptable
decision by the Chicago front office after last year’s team made a thrilling
playoff run even after being decimated by injuries. Chicago’s future and
potential for titles for the next four years will almost completely hinge on Derrick
Rose’s health, as his max deal extends through the 2016-17 season. In addition
to Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich were just a few players that
sustained substantial injuries during at least a part of last season, and it will
take a combination of luck and the careful massaging of minutes by Tom Thibodeau
during the regular season to fashion a healthy roster and propel Chicago to the
top of the conference.
Not much extra talent was
required for this roster to be elite, but Chicago added a couple key components
to their roster anyway by the way of Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell, and this
could create some interesting floor spacing lineup combinations to pave the way
to the rim for Derrick Rose. Chicago finished second to last in the league in
3pt attempts per game in the regular season, and Dunleavy will certainly help
in that regard. He shot 43% from behind the arc last year, and is capable of
playing either wing position which creates valuable versatility in Thibodeau’s
offense. Tony Snell projects to be another solid wing for the Bulls as well,
and will add athleticism and good shooting to a roster that will need it if
injuries dismantle it once again.
Similar to the Pacers, Chicago
has solidified their core for years to come, and while there are reports of
action on the trade market involving Luol Deng or amnesty for Carlos Boozer, I
don’t expect those moves to happen anytime soon. Thibs reportedly loves Deng,
and values Boozer’s offensive contributions as well. Chicago will be an elite
team for as long as they are able to keep this core together, however they are
currently well above the luxury tax threshold and will eventually need to
renounce the rights to some of their roster to avoid being repeat offenders3
Grade: A
Milwaukee Bucks
Key additions: Luke Ridnour, Zaza
Pachulia, Carlos Delfino, O.J. Mayo, Gustavo Ayon, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Key subtractions: JJ Redick,
Monta Ellis, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Mike Dunleavy, Samuel Dalembert, Marquis
Daniel, Drew Gooden
I about lost it when I saw the
team slogan on Milwaukee’s ESPN NBA blog
“8th seed or bust”, and they communicated their desire to continue
to do just that for the next few years through their poor offseason management.
My biggest gripe involving the Bucks was their decision in the handling of JJ
Redick. After dealing for Redick for some much needed 3 point shooting last
season to sneak into the final playoff spot, GM John Hammond bewilderingly rid
him for two crappy second round draft picks a few months later. Remember, they
gave Tobias Harris away (a young, budding talent) to receive Redick (and Ayon
and Ish Smith) in return, and acquiring second round draft picks isn’t going to
get you very far in the NBA.4
Detroit Pistons
Cleveland Cavaliers
Okay, so they gave away JJ Redick
for nearly nothing, but surely that’s the worst, right? Well... no. Seeing as
there were hardly any wing players left on the roster after freeing Marquis
Daniels and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Milwaukee, desperate for some wing depth,
signed O.J. Mayo to a 3 year, $24 million deal. This wouldn’t be so bad if Mayo
could split time with other guards, but as of right now he stands as the only
shooting guard on this roster. Mayo serves as a decent rotation piece, but one
that will barely upgrade this roster at all, especially considering he will
play heavy minutes. Monta Ellis is finally gone, but Milwaukee simply let him
walk rather than engaging in a sign and trade that could have significantly
upgraded their future. And now the Bucks have a seven man logjam rotation of
bigs, including Ayon, Sanders, Udoh, Pachulia, Ilyasova, Henson, and Antetokounmpo.
This is bad within itself, but new coach Larry Drew must also avoid letting
this buildup reduce Larry Sanders’ minutes, as Sanders, the most promising
player on this roster, could absolutely develop into a top 5 center in the NBA
within the next few years.
And we haven’t even addressed the
most crucial decision the Bucks face this offseason: the Brandon Jennings
decision. Coach Nick
did a terrific breakdown that confirmed my initial perception of his talent (or
lack thereof), but I’ll go ahead and give some more of my thoughts here. As of right
now, Jennings, due for a contract extension as his rookie deal expires after
next year, is reportedly requesting an extension worth $12 million per year for
4 years, while the Bucks will only budge to around $8 or $9 mil. Personally, I
would commit neither if I were general manager John Hammond. I like that
Milwaukee continues to hold out on this extension, rather than giving into
Jennings’ desires. To me, he’s a hot-head, high volume shooter with low
efficiency who thinks he is much better than he is (hence asking for $12
million/year). There’s a reason Jennings, a restricted free agent this summer,
hasn’t received any attention from other teams, and Milwaukee basically has 3
options here. They could give into Jennings desire for a $12 million/year deal,
they could not budge and hope he accepts a multi-year deal worth less money, or,
if the sides fail to reach a contractual agreement, they could resort to the
one-year qualifying offer of $4.5 million for this season knowing Jennings will
most likely leave Milwaukee next offseason through unrestricted free agency.5
6
Even losing Jennings wouldn’t
damage Milwaukee much in the future, there are plenty of quality point guards in
the NBA, and the Bucks will have plenty of cap room next offseason to make a
significant splash. As for right now however, it’s still 8th seed or
bust.
Grade: D (The Jennings decision could make this better or worse)
Detroit Pistons
Key additions: Josh Smith, Chauncey
Billups, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Key subtractions: Corey Maggette,
Jason Maxiell, Jose Calderon
The Pistons were in a very
envious position. Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, and now Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
looked to be a solid, fundamental core to build around for the upcoming years.
And then Josh Smith happened.
Look, I understand the buzz
around Smith, he’s everything but a superstar, a player with one major, and
easily fixable flaw (shot selection) who encompasses everything you want in a
teammate going forward. But the obvious and most intriguing dilemma new coach
Maurice Cheeks faces is the issue of spacing, not only because these three
sharing the floor can’t shoot, but the Pistons simply have few reliable deep
shooters on their entire roster. Smith will enhance the versatility of the
rotations being able to play the 3 and 4, which could brace Detroit if the
roster suffered significant injuries. He’s a terrific passer and a terrific
teammate who brings defensive intensity every night and is a terror in the
transition game. There’s no question he’s worth his 4 year $54 million
contract.
But for this team, this roster,
and this situation? Smith would have been much better suited to sign on with a
contender, and while I understand most contenders may have not had the cap room
he had requested, I’m not sure Detroit is the right place for him anyway.
Drummond, Monroe, Caldwell-Pope, and even Brandon Knight composed a young core
with potential to grow into a powerhouse within a few years, and Smith gives
them help now when they should probably prefer it later. This move brings
Detroit within playoff proximity next season, but by the time Drummond and
Monroe reach their primes, Smith will already have reached the back end of his
career.
The other situation with this
roster regards the point guard position, and I am absolutely certain that
Pistons GM Joe Dumars should have used the money spent on Smith to beef up the
point guard position. Players such as Luke Ridnour, Jose Calderon, and Eric
Maynor all switched teams this offseason, and all of these names would have solved
this point guard dilemma as well as saved money. Unfortunately the point guard
rotation now consists of Will Bynum, Rodney Stuckey, Brandon Knight, and Chauncey
Billups. Billups is the most likely to start, but he’s old, and this could also
restrain Brandon Knight from fully developing. However, Knight isn’t qualified
to be a starting point guard as of right now anyway, and very well may never
be, Will Bynum has been awful unless he’s paired with Drummond, and Stuckey isn’t
even a pure point guard.
I could stand completely wrong in
a few years if Smith actually integrates smoothly into the operations of this
roster, and he could bring a strong leadership presence to the locker room to
better effectively develop Drummond and Monroe. But the new CBA favors teams
that stay young and under the cap, and I doubt his intangible contributions
will outweigh his hindrances of this young core.
Grade: C
Cleveland Cavaliers
Key additions: Anthony Bennett,
Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack, Earl Clark
Key subtractions: Daniel Gibson,
Luke Walton, Marresse Speights, Shaun Livingston
The Cavs made one of the most
newsworthy splashes in free agency this offseason, signing Andrew Bynum to a 2
year, $24 million contract. It sounds unfavorable on the surface, but when
digging into the details of the contract terms, it is discovered that only $6
million of that money is actually guaranteed, as Bynum has to meet deadlines by
avoiding being waved due to his health. It’s an incredible deal for both sides,
and considering Bynum’s health reputation it may have been an even bigger steal
for him and his destructive knees.
Basically, a completely healthy
Cavs team sets up to be a championship contender without a doubt; Kyrie is in
full force, Thompson has developed into a multifaceted role player, Andrew
Bynum can be a top 10 player when engaged, and Varejao is a defensive stalwart
and had a monstrous rebounding season last year before going down with injury.
Unfortunately, however, the word “healthy”
doesn’t exist in Cleveland dictionaries. Kyrie has had numerous setbacks over
the past few years, Varejao is never ever ever ever healthy, and Bynum missed
all of last season. And that has to make the future murky for Cleveland GM
Chris Grant. Cleveland has a heap of crucial decisions to make next offseason. Irving
and Thompson will both be due for contract extensions, Bynum will either be
renounced or signed to the second half of his deal, and Varejao is under a team
option worth nearly $10 million which all raise lots of questions. It sounds
silly, but does Kyrie acquire a max deal if he again misses significant time
this season? How much is Tristan Thompson worth? Are you going to risk $10
million on a fragile Varejao?
Those are all questions for next
offseason, but as far as this offseason goes, the Cavs performed very well.
There’s only so much you can do with an injury prone roster, but only time will
tell if this core can prove healthy enough to make it far. Jarrett Jack and
Earl Clark beef up the bench significantly, and we will be closely monitoring
the performances and health of Irving, Bynum and the rest of the Cavs this
winter. And even if some of these players become restrained by health issues, Cleveland
will have loads of cap room as soon as next year, and plenty of team options to
rid themselves of injury prone players.
Grade: B+
1 The 2014 pick from Indiana is protected (to which degree it hasn’t been revealed yet, but that’s unlikely to matter considering Indiana’s pick will most likely be in the high 20s next year anyway. ↩
2 And all this talk about him going to LA? Forget about it. The new CBA gives a current team substantial leverage to retain their restricted free agents, and if the Pacers want to keep George, which they do, then they will.↩
3 Repeat offenders of the luxury tax (set at around $70 or $71 million) pay significantly more over time than non-repeat offenders. See here for more.↩
4 What makes it even worse was that these second rounders are protected, which means they will most likely be at the very end of the draft. Shameful↩
5 Jennings reportedly wants out of Milwaukee anyway; this could be a win-win.↩
6 The qualifying offer is absolutely the route I would take if I were Milwaukee. Look, this guy has almost reached his ceiling, he’s not good, and he doesn’t want to be there anyway, why sign him to a multi-year deal? Take Jennings for the cheap $4.5 million this season, let him walk next year, find some way to draft a point guard in the draft, and live with Ridnour as your starting PG the next year while you wait for your draft pick to develop. Some Bucks fans claim the qualifying offer should be the last resort in this scenario because Jennings will bitch about it all season and not play as motivated. WHO CARES?! It’s not like you’re going places this season anyway! Sheesh. ↩
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