What's Going on in Denver?

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What’s going on in Denver?

After Andre Miller’s buzzer beater in game 1 last week, it seemed like all the momentum had been sapped from Golden State. David Lee had gone down for the remainder of the playoffs, the Denver defense had frozen the high powered Golden State offense, and the Pepsi Center crowd continued to will it’s team to victory, just as it had done in the regular season cheering the Nuggets to a 38-3 home record.

However, the Warriors came roaring back to snag the biggest road win at the Pepsi Center all year in game 2, shooting a whopping 65% from the field (!) and scorching the Nuggets from long range at 56% (!!!). This would have been impressive enough for one game, but when Golden State kept up this hot shooting for the next 2 games, it became clear that something was going wrong with Denver.

But what is it? Denver is playing the exact game they’ve been playing all year, an up-tempo high-powered offense that includes forcing an abundant number of turnovers and scraping together some easy fast break points. The offense is still productive; even in the three losses the Nuggets are scoring 105.5 points per 100 possessions, a number that would rank an admirable ninth in the league.

However, the problem is on the defensive side of the ball; Curry and Klay Thompson are obviously two of the best shooters in the league, and while a hot shooting streak doesn’t usually last this long, it’s no surprise it has with these two, especially Curry. He’s shot a whopping 45% from deep this year on an even more astonishing 7 attempts per game. Running him and Klay Thompson through screens is giving the Denver defense fits, and the new David Lee-less small-ball starting lineup is scoring 119.4 points per 100 possessions in this series, a number that would lead the league by a large margin.

One of the main problems a defense faces is the Bogut-Curry high pick and roll. As you can see in this next clip, Denver is forced to contain Curry at the top of the key to deter a jumpshot, allowing Bogut to punish the defense with his terrific passing after slipping through the screen.

This has been the case for Curry running the pick and roll with either Bogut or Landry. The Denver big is forced to maintain a hard hedge to deter Curry from shooting over the top, and when this defensive strategy is employed, it keeps the defense on its toes allowing him to slither into the paint or slip a pass to the big for a quick shot.

It may be questioned, however, what would happen when the shots stop falling? In a more hostile environment such as the Pepsi Center, it is much less likely for players such as Curry and Thompson to retain a shooting streak for an extended period of time. Yes, they are great shooters, but even the best shooters in the game can’t always keep it going, and when the offense breaks down it will be interesting to see from which sets the Warriors run their plays. Carl Landry is obviously their number one option if this happens, and there’s really no specific matchup Golden State for has for him on the block. Mark Jackson has also done a terrific Job of mixing up sets for Golden State to keep Denver guessing, and the creativity exposed through the use of an assortment of Warriors running the offense has been very effective.

Basically Golden State has just given the Nuggets a taste of their own medicine, and this is why it’s such a frustrating match up for Denver. Denver has out-paced nearly every team this season, and won by simply out hustling their opponents. However, the Warriors appear to be their kryptonite; Golden State has no dilemma playing at Denver’s pace, especially at home, where the energy of the crowd seemingly directly translates into transition threes.

Denver’s only hope is really just to go back home and attempt to out-run Golden State. The Nuggets are down 1-3 in the series, although it’s not entirely impossible for a comeback at this stage. The Nuggets offense is particularly effective in their native environment, and Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala are perfectly capable of penetrating the lane and getting to the rim.

Lost in all of the excitement of this series is the absence of Danilo Gallinari. Denver’s half court offense is screaming for an alternate offensive option, specifically a stable three-point sniper. Lawson and Iguodala are average long-range shooters at best, and Corey Brewer is overlooked by Golden State in the corners on offense. Not only would Gallinari spread the floor for the other Denver scorers to work, but he would create such a mismatch for the current Golden State lineup that it adjusting it would be inevitable.

However, Gallinari’s loss forces George Karl to go small as to contain the Warrior’s three guard lineup. Golden State can grind through extended minutes with Harrison Barnes acting as a small-ball 4, however, a healthy Gallinari at the 3 for Denver would all but eliminate this ultra-effective Warrior 3 guard lineup.

With their backs against the wall, Denver simply needs to continue to execute what has won them games all season: trapping opponents and forcing turnovers, scurrying up and down the floor to attack transition defenses, crashing the offensive glass, and they must do everything they can to keep the ball out of Curry and Thompson's hands.

Oh, and most importantly: keep their fingers crossed that those hot shooters cool off. 

Life without Russell Westbrook and the New Thunder Offense

Life without Russell Westbrook and the New Thunder Offense

For Oklahoma City fans, it has been a real treat to watch this Thunder team, successfully (and rather handily) dissect opposing defenses for the past few years and cakewalk into a favorable playoff seed. A huge part of this prosperity comes from the luxury of retaining two of the best scorers in the league, and while OKC’s offense doesn’t exactly dazzle the fundamentalist fan at times, it still topped out as the second most efficient offense last season. Unfortunately Russell Westbrook is gone now (for the season anyway), and OKC will now have pile most of the burden upon the shoulders of Scott Brooks, Reggie Jackson, Kevin Martin and especially Kevin Durant.

It really is a shame this has happened; OKC had positioned itself to have the greatest chance of knocking off the commanding Heat team, and Scott Brooks will have to nitpick the Thunder’s offensive tempo, lineups, and overall scheme to counter opposing defenses that can now direct their strategy to containing one scorer instead of two. That’s exactly what happened with the Rockets on Saturday night, and while they did give Durant some fits through the game, the Thunder somehow still strapped themselves to his back and snuck out of Houston with a 3 point win.

And the final result didn’t seem so bad. Durant took a few more shots but still shot at a decent percentage, the frontcourt dominated the defensive glass, and OKC trumped Houston’s defense holding them to a mediocre 101.0 points per 100 possessions, 5.7 points below their regular season total.

So why does it seem Thunder fans are now more concerned after the first game without Westbrook than before? Yes it is hard to watch Durant log such lengthy stretches during the game with out a break, but those types of minutes are necessary in crucial games such as this. OKC clearly didn’t want to let this one slip away and be forced into a game 5, and Durant paid the price logging 47 total minutes. It is not so much that he needs to rest, as it is the risk of a sputtering Thunder offense when their superstar is not on the floor. This isn’t a problem with Westbrook as part of the rotation, as Brooks can easily turn to Westbrook to guide while Durant sits. However, lineups score at a disastrous rate when both share the bench. Here are a few things OKC needs to do to lessen the burden on Durant’s shoulders, and increase productivity in their offense.

Alternate Scoring Options

Finding other teammates to score is certainly easier said than done, but it starts first with running less of the offense through Durant isolations and finding good looks for teammates. An open 3 for floor spacers such as Fisher, Sefolosha, Martin and even Ibaka are more efficient shots than a 20-foot Durant jumper shot over 3 defenders. This is much easier achieved with KD on the floor, as running him through screens creates open looks for other players against a compromising defense forced to attach themselves to Durant. Watch here the Houston defense creeps over to the right side of the floor to contain the superstar, only to have Reggie Jackson slice through the defense to find Martin for an open look on the opposite side. 

And here, as Durant draws an extra defender leaving Sefolosha open for a clean look.

The Thunder have a palpable advantage offensively when compared to other teams, as nearly all of their wings and even Ibaka can camp out behind the 3 point arc and wait for the ball to swing their way.

However, the Thunder need to formulate easier ways to break down the initial defensive set to swing the ball around for an easy look, and while the easiest way to do this is the high pick and roll, they don’t have a consistent big to run that with Durant. Perkins is clearly the best screen-setter on the team, but he has no range, especially when he is forced to pull a quick trigger, and while he can find the open man, he’s not the most willing passer on the team. Ibaka has improved tremendously on offense, but he’s nowhere near the level of a Garnett or Pau Gasol when it comes to slipping through the screen and kicking it into the corner.

This is why a lineup featuring Collison is intriguing. Paired with Durant, Fisher, Martin and Sefelosha, this could potentially score without relying on Durant to bail OKC out with 4 seconds on the shot clock. Martin and Collison already have chemistry running the two-man dribble handoff, and Collison is a capable and willing passer, as he shows here by slipping through the screen and setting off a chain of clueless Houston defenders for an open Fisher three.

This lineup only looks good on paper of course, although the Collison-Martin duo is scoring 113.3 points per 100 possessions which would rank first in the league by a large margin. This would most likely suffer defensively, especially against a team like the Clippers or Spurs with two bigs, but it’s an effective fallback for stretches when Durant can’t keep it going. It really doesn’t matter where the offense comes from, but with Westbrook inactive, the other Thunder players on the floor are going to have to assist Durant in carrying the burden when the shots won’t fall or he is on the bench.

Better/more Passing

This may come to a surprise to some; Durant really is a video game-like scorer, but even the best players can’t carry the team all the time, and that imperfection was exposed Saturday. Durant shot 3-7 on long twos, and a paltry 2-9 from deep. This is why I suggest for him to (gasp) pass more. As stated earlier, even the deep shooting threats on OKC’s perimeter were more often than not subtly ignored by the Houston defense.  Yes, he’s the best scorer in the league, but shooting numbers are always going to diminish in large quantities, even in Durant’s case, and I’d like to see a few less long jumpers from him. He’s perfectly capable of penetrating the defense, and while it’s not as effortless as when Westbrook does, Durant draws the defense into the lane so much it gives perimeter players enough time to tie their shoes before jacking up an open 3. Look at how much the Houston defense collapses into the lane in this photo.

Here, either Sefolosha or Martin could get a quality 3-point shot, and although Durant's shot went in, those types of contested shots seldom fall. I’m not saying Durant should hold himself back by shooting less and passing more; he’s a scorer and I expect him to go out and get his points. However, when the shot’s aren’t falling why not throw it around to the open man?

And that’s really about all the Thunder can do. Durant is going to have to carry this offense through nearly every possession on the floor, even if he’s not the primary ball handler. Kevin Martin is unfairly assumed to be a secondary scorer, but he’s been accustomed to scoring off the bench this year, although I do expect his usage rate to increase a bit. Ibaka can’t pass, and Sefelosha and Fisher are basically spot up shooters.  Reggie Jackson is the only other tangible option to run plays for, it’s dicey to thrust him into such a vital role in such a crucial situation, but it’s worth a shot to run him a few pick and rolls, and his numbers on synergy are not shabby, albeit in small sample sizes.

For Thunder fans, and sports fans in general it’s a tough reminder that luck plays a huge role in winning any championship, and with the western conference now wide open, the Thunder will need a lot of fine tuning to get their offense back into elite shape.